Prospects Analysis: Top-100 Part 1

Written by

Jon Litterine

Published on January 30, 2021

Alexis Lafreniere (LW, NYR): The No. 1 overall pick from the most recent draft is almost always going to top this list when the rankings come in, and this year is no exception. The difference this year, of course, is the fact Lafreniere is going to a team in the Rangers that is nowhere near the worst hockey club in the league. We all know the backstory relative to how New York acquired the No. 1 selection. The entire fan base was distraught following their three-game elimination to Carolina in the play-in round, and less than a week later they were going nuts after winning the lottery. Lafreniere isn't the same level prospect as a guy like Connor McDavid was coming out of junior, but he's an all-around offensive talent and legitimate difference-maker. Lafreniere hunts down pucks like his life depends on it, and his hockey IQ is exceptional. He is a phenomenal stick-handler and has the size (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) to carve out space in the offensive zone. It's rare for any 18-year-old to possess this type of all-around skill set. It's impossible to cover everything he excels at in one single paragraph. There has been a long standing bias against QMJHL players (of which Lafreniere is one of the best in recent memory), but his dominant performance at the World Juniors (where he was tournament MVP) showed Lafreniere is an elite talent. Lafreniere will never play another second of junior hockey and should be a major contributor for

Alexis Lafreniere (LW, NYR): The No. 1 overall pick from the most recent draft is almost always going to top this list when the rankings come in, and this year is no exception. The difference this year, of course, is the fact Lafreniere is going to a team in the Rangers that is nowhere near the worst hockey club in the league. We all know the backstory relative to how New York acquired the No. 1 selection. The entire fan base was distraught following their three-game elimination to Carolina in the play-in round, and less than a week later they were going nuts after winning the lottery. Lafreniere isn't the same level prospect as a guy like Connor McDavid was coming out of junior, but he's an all-around offensive talent and legitimate difference-maker. Lafreniere hunts down pucks like his life depends on it, and his hockey IQ is exceptional. He is a phenomenal stick-handler and has the size (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) to carve out space in the offensive zone. It's rare for any 18-year-old to possess this type of all-around skill set. It's impossible to cover everything he excels at in one single paragraph. There has been a long standing bias against QMJHL players (of which Lafreniere is one of the best in recent memory), but his dominant performance at the World Juniors (where he was tournament MVP) showed Lafreniere is an elite talent. Lafreniere will never play another second of junior hockey and should be a major contributor for New York from the very start. This result was legitimately a best-case scenario for both team and player. Lafreniere can take his time getting acclimated to the NHL while guys like Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, along with rising starts Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox, and Igor Shesterkin carry the load.
Quinton Byfield (C, LA): Byfield is right there with Lafreniere in terms of pure ability, but there is more projection with Byfield's game than your typical No. 2 selection. The obvious attraction with Quinton is the size/speed combination. He moves effortlessly for a kid who checks in at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds. The ceiling here is immense, as in one of the top half-dozen players in the league. In addition to the size and speed, Byfield is a very good passer. He also posted 61 goals in 109 games for OHL Sudbury over the past two seasons. Byfield had a poor showing at the World Juniors, but basing any player's draft stock on one random two-week tournament is foolish, and the Kings wisely did not let that impact their decision at No. 2. The Kings have done an exceptional job of loading up their prospect pool over the past few years, but no player in the system can come close to touching Byfield's upside.
Kirill Kaprizov (LW, MIN): A 2015 fifth-round selection, it took the Wild more than five years to get Kaprizov signed. Minnesota wanted him so badly that they signed him in mid-July and immediately burned a year off his entry-level contract with the full understanding Kaprizov wouldn't be eligible to play in the restart. It was the price of doing business to get Kaprizov over from his native Russia. Kaprizov is now 23 years of age. He's been a KHL All-Star each of the past four seasons, leading the league in goals each of the past two years. He also won a gold medal with (The Olympic Athletes of) Russia in 2018. Unlike virtually everyone else on this list, Kaprizov has been playing against men in the second-best league in the world for years. I expect him to immediately settle into a top-six role for the Wild and he should be a leaning contender for the Calder Trophy. 25 goals and 60-plus points is well within reach for Kaprizov in this debut season. Minnesota is going to rely on his heavily right out of the gate.
Trevor Zegras (C, ANH): Zegras ended up playing one season at Boston University. He was named to the Hockey East All-Rookie team while averaging more than a point-per-game (11 goals, 36 points in 33 games). While he played well for the Terriers, Zegras was brilliant for Team USA at the World Juniors. He led the tournament in assists with nine, with the vast majority of them being of the highlight reel variety. Zegras in an elite playmaker. He seemingly has eyes in the back of his head and possesses the ability to see plays before they develop. The amount of players in the world -- NHL veterans included -- with the passing abilities of Zegras is minuscule. He signed his entry-level deal with Anaheim in late March. In a perfect world, Zegras could probably use half a season in the AHL but I doubt it happens. I could see Zegras struggling with the physicality of the league in his first go-round but he will change the look of the Anaheim man advantage immediately.
Tim Stuetzle (LW, OTT): Led by 2019-20 NHL Most Valuable Player Leon Draisaitl, German hockey is clearly on the rise. Stuetzle is the latest talent from one of hockey's fastest-growing nations. I'm all-in on Stuetzle's two-way game. The offensive prowess is obvious. Stuetzle skates well and has excellent hands. He was very successful (34 points in 41 games) this past season playing against men in Germany's top DEL league. Stuetzle takes pride in his defense and it's obvious when you watch him play. He back-checks ferociously and I could easily see him killing penalties at the NHL level at some point down the line. Of course, I could also see an NHL coach being uncomfortable with putting Stuetzle out there because of how much he brings to the table offensively. Oh, Stuetzle -- a natural left winger -- can also play center if needed. Stuetzle doesn't have the pedigree of Lafreniere or project to dominate a game physically like Byfield but there's a definite chance he could end up being a more thorough pro than both. Stuetzle broke his hand while training less than a week after Ottawa took him No. 3 overall. The injury required surgery and was expected to sideline Stuetzle for 6-8 weeks.
Dylan Cozens (C, BUF): The Sabres have been trending in the wrong direction for, well, seemingly ever. Their two most valuable long-term assets are Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin but Cozens is very clearly third on that list. A native of Whitehorse, Yukon, Cozens became the first Yukon player to be selected in the first round when Buffalo took him No. 7 overall in 2019. Cozens was returned to his WHL club in Lethbridge, where he served as captain and finished seventh in league scoring with 85 points in 51 games. Cozens is a true center. A tall (6-foot-3), somewhat lanky (185 pounds) kid with a long history of playing for Canada on the international scene. Maybe the Sabres want to break Cozens in on the wing in order to take some pressure of him initially but he should remain in the middle over the long-term. I have little confidence in Buffalo's ability to develop any young players these days but like Eichel and Dahlin, I think Cozens is simply too talented to mess up. I see him as a solid second-line pivot with the potential for more.
Igor Shesterkin (G, NYR): Shesterkin's debut season in North America could not have gone any better. The only thing that stopped him as a broken rib suffered in a minor car accident that cost him a couple weeks worth of action. Shesterkin began the season in AHL Hartford, posting a 1.90 GAA and .934 save percentage in 25 games. Wisely recognizing he was by far the best goaltender in their organization, the Rangers recalled him in early January. Shesterkin went on to win 10 of his first 12 NHL starts, posting a 2.52 GAA and .932 save percentage. You can count the poor goals he gave up over the dozen games on one hand. Shesterkin is calm in net, supremely confident, and remarkably athletic. After well over a decade's worth of top-tier play from Henrik Lundqvist, the Rangers now have the ability to run arguably the NHL's best young goaltender out there on a nightly basis. I expect Alexandar Georgiev will get his fair share of playing time, but there is no doubt who the No. 1 man is in New York. Shesterkin -- who turns 25 years of age in late December -- is on an ascending team and projects as a perennial Vezina Trophy candidate for years to come.
Alex Newhook (C, COL): Newhook's freshman season at Boston College could not have gone any better. He finished with 19 goals and 42 points in 34 games for the Eagles, while being named NCAA Rookie of the Year. It's impossible to believe Newhook fell all the way to No. 16 overall in the 2019 draft and even more impossible to believe he ended up with a loaded organization like Colorado. The only possible expectation is that NHL clubs weren't totally sold on a player who spent his draft year playing in the BCHL in order to maintain his collegiate eligibility. Of course, Newhook spent that season leading the BCHL in scoring while being named league MVP. Newhook's offensive game is built around speed and skill. He's shifty on his skates and can stick handle in a phone booth. What he accomplished for the Eagles despite playing almost the entire season as an 18-year-old was truly impressive. Newhook -- who is clearly ready to play professional hockey -- elected to return to Boston College for his sophomore season. I'd be shocked if he spent a third year on campus.
Cole Perfetti (LW, WPG): I will never for the life of me understand how Perfetti fell to the Jets at No. 10 overall on draft night. I didn't understand it at the time and understand it even less now. Perfetti was one of the most gifted offensive players in the entire draft. His hands are exceptional and his hockey sense is elite. Perfetti often seems to think the game two or even three steps ahead of everyone else on the ice. The Jets didn't really have an immediate organizational need for Perfetti but they stuck to their board and took what was by far the best player available and should be commended for it. The one (minor) knock on Perfetti is his straight away speed. I think his skating is about average. There are some who would label it a tick below average. The bottom line is that I don't think it will hold him back moving forward.
Lucas Raymond (LW, DET): The Red Wings were one of the more difficult teams to pin down on draft night. They went off the board last year at No. 6 when they took Moritz Seider and many thought they were interested Perfetti at No. 4 this year. Instead, they popped Raymond, who has drawn comparisons to Mitch Marner. Raymond received somewhat limited ice time for Frolunda (SHL) last year but he has always played well for Sweden on the international stage. Although his calling card is his playmaking, Raymond is talented enough to be defenders 1-on-1 in addition possessing an underrated shot. There's a lack of physicality to Raymond's game but he doesn't shy away from going to the difficult areas of the ice to make a play. I have a difficult time envisioning a scenario in which he doesn't develop into a useful top-six offensive weapon for the Red Wings. Raymond just has too much going for him offensively.
Alex Turcotte (C, LA): Like the rest of his team, Turcotte (nine goals, 26 points in 29 games) was up and down in what would end up being his only season at the University of Wisconsin. He had some games where he really stood out but there were also plenty of nights in which Turcotte was invisible. It was a strange season for the Badgers and I'm tempted to toss most everything I saw out the window. Turcotte signed with the Kings in March but I don't think he's ready for NHL duty. I had no problem with the signing because I nearly always advocate legitimate prospects join the professional ranks as soon as possible but Turcotte has some things to work on. His two-way floor is high. Turcotte's competitiveness is off the charts and he has the skill level to match. I see no scenario in which he doesn't develop into a useful NHL player in some capacity but I don't think it's going to happen as quickly as some originally envisioned.
Cole Caufield (RW, MON): A teammate of Turcotte at Wisconsin last season, Caufield was also a bit up and down. It's a testament to Caufield's pure ability than he still managed to score 19 goals in 36 games en route to being named Big 10 Rookie of the Year. Caufield is a pure sniper. He shoots the puck extremely hard, in addition to shooting it extremely accurately. He can pick corners at will and needs virtually zero room in order to beat a goaltender top shelf. Caufield is 5-foot-7 and barely 170 pounds but he is willing to go to the difficult areas of the ice to make a play and his passing abilities have long been underrated. Still, Caufield is going to make his living at the NHL level scoring goals. Unlike Turcotte, Caufield and the Canadiens mutually agreed for him to return to Wisconsin for his sophomore season. I personally would have preferred to see him spend the entire year with Montreal's AHL affiliate in Laval but Caufield won't turn 20 years of age until early January and I don't think the decision to return to school impacts his future much either way.
Ilya Sorokin (G, NYI): Simply put, Sorokin is the most decorated goaltender in KHL history. Through eight years and 244 games in that league, he posted a 1.70 GAA and .930 save percentage. In 69 playoff games, those numbers improved to a 1.37 GAA and .940 save percentage. He has been a KHL All-Star each of the past five seasons. I could go on, but you get the point. The Islanders selected Sorokin in the third round (78th overall) in 2014 and finally -- after much back and forth -- got him signed this summer. Like Kaprizov and the Wild, the Isles signed Sorokin and agreed to burn the first (and only) year of his entry-level deal with the full knowledge he wouldn't be allowed to play for them in the postseason restart. Isles President and GM Lou Lamiorello got the deal done and immediately signed Sorokin to a one-year, $2 million deal for the 2020-21 season. Sorokin will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights in the summer of 2021. New York has Sorokin's buddy Semyon Varlamov signed to a lucrative long-term deal ($5 million per season) through 2022-23 but it's impossible to believe Sorokin won't earn the undisputed starting job in short order. Teams aren't willing to burn a year off a player's contract if they don't believe he can help them immediately. Ability wise, Sorokin is right on par with Shesterkin, with the main difference between the two being we have already seen Shesterkin play well in North America. He's a legitimate immediate dark horse Vezina Trophy candidate given the Isles defensive style of play.
Marco Rossi (C, MIN): Nabbing Rossi at No. 9 overall in this past October's draft was a best-case scenario for the Wild. Minnesota has a thin, top heavy prospect pool and Rossi gives the organization another top-flight talent. Rossi won the OHL scoring title this past season after posting 120 points in 56 games for Ottawa. The talent is obvious when you watch him play, but what really won me over regarding Rossi was his competitiveness. He works his tail off defensively and could reasonably be expected to kill penalties down the line in addition to his even-strength and power-play duties. On top of that, Rossi appears to be just about NHL-ready. I would wager he has a full-time role with the Wild locked down by the start of the 2021-22 campaign, at the latest. Minnesota appears to have found one of the rare commodities in the NHL these days, a long-term top-six solution at center.
Alexander Holtz (RW, NJ): The Devils had multiple options with the No. 7 overall selection in the recently completed draft and their decision to nab Holtz was a sound one. Unlike many of the players ahead of him on this list, there is little projection to Holtz's game. He's a pure sniper with the rare ability to snap one home from anywhere in the offensive zone. Others don't love his playmaking skills, but I've always found him to be at least average in that area. Holtz's shoot-first mentality should fit exceptionally well alongside former No. 1 overall picks (and pass-first players) Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Holtz is held back slightly by nothing better than average speed but his hockey sense is terrific and he works hard to get himself open in the offensive zone.
Yaroslav Askarov (G, NSH): Askarov has been a top-flight goaltending prospect for multiple years, with his only true poor showing coming at the 2020 World Juniors. Askarov is about average from a technical standpoint, but he's both massive (6-foot-3) and athletic and those two attributes can cover up any potential technical errors. Askarov is clearly better on shots in tight (and on breakaways) as opposed to bombs from out high but I don't expect the later to be much of an issue moving forward. The main question at this point is when will Askarov come to North America? He plays for a powerhouse KHL program (SKA) and his contract reportedly runs through the end of 2021-22. Even if it takes another year or two beyond that, it's a small price to pay for Nashville to acquire a clear cut future No. 1 goaltender.
Spencer Knight (G, FLA): I am legitimately of the belief that Knight is the best goaltender in the Florida system. And yes, that includes incumbent starter Sergei Bobrovsky. The 19-year-old Knight played 33 games in his freshman season at Boston College, posting a 1.97 GAA and .931 save percentage. Knight possesses excellent size (6-foot-3) and is extremely calm in net. He rarely gives up a bad goal and immediately bounces back if he does. The Panthers have a problem on their hands. Bobrovsky is signed for six more seasons at a cap hit of a whopping $10 million. It's an immovable contract, and Knight should be ready for full-time NHL duty at the start of the 2022-23 season, at the latest. They have time to figure this out but Knight has to be the No. 1 guy sooner rather than later if he's the best option. He'll return to Boston College for his sophomore season but I'd be shocked if he sees a third year in Hockey East.
Bowen Byram (D, COL): Byram had a so-so season (14 goals, 52 points in 50 games for WHL Vancouver) relative to the massive expectations for him but I still have him ranked as the top defensive prospect in the league. I was pretty convinced Byram would get at least a nine-game trial with the Avs but they made the decision early on to send him back to Vancouver. Byram was also a member of the Canadian team that won the gold medal at the World Juniors, but his impact (two assists in seven games) over the course of the tournament was minimal. Byram possesses dynamic offensive traits. His long-term ceiling is massive. I expect him to be a regular for Colorado this season but I imagine their coaching staff will be careful in regards to how they deploy him. The Avalanche have the depth to pull off such an experiment and as a result I think it will be at least a couple seasons before Byram truly makes the type of impact many -- myself included --are expecting.
Jamie Drysdale (D, ANH): I would have looked elsewhere at No. 6 overall this past October but I acknowledge that Drysdale's game is built for the "new" NHL. Like many undersized defenders joining the league these days, Drysdale defends with his feet and brain. He's an exceptional skater and possesses the foot speed to both harass opposing forwards in addition to carrying the puck out of his own zone. Drysdale isn't going to smash one-times by opposing goaltenders with the man advantage but his vision and smarts should allow him to quarterback Anaheim's power-play one day. I have a difficult time seeing a scenario in which Drysdale doesn't become a productive NHL player but I'm still not totally sold on his long-term upside.
Nick Robertson (LW, TOR): No prospect in the entire league saw his stock rise over the course of the past 12 months more than Robertson. The No. 53 overall selection in the 2019 draft, Robertson led the OHL in goals this past season with 55 in just 46 games. The Leafs were so impressed with his play that they included Robertson on their roster for the play-in tournament. He played in four of Toronto's five games against Columbus, scoring his first NHL goal. Robertson's motor is exceptional. He's seemingly always moving at top speed and is constantly around the puck. He plays much bigger than his 5-foot-9 frame would lead you to believe.
Arthur Kaliyev (RW, LA): Viewed as a potential late lottery pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Kaliyev inexplicably slipped to No. 33 overall. The main knocks on Kaliyev are that he is a one-dimensional goal scorer with limited speed. Both those things may well be true but this is a kid who has dominated the OHL to the tune of 95 goals and 200 points over the course of the past two seasons. Kaliyev has also always been an underrated playmaker. I could see a scenario in which his offense fails to translate to the professional ranks. That being said, he has a cannon of a shot and checks in at 6-foot-2 and well over 200 pounds. Guys that size with Kaliyev's offensive touch should never, ever see the second round. I expect the Staten Island native to get a long look in camp and begin the season in the AHL if he can't crack the Los Angeles roster. He's a potential foundational piece for a ton with a ridiculous amount of young, high-end depth on the way.
Ty Smith (D, NJ): Smith could have easily played in the NHL this past year and he might have been ready to play two seasons ago. I thought New Jersey's decision to ship him back for one final junior season was a mistake but then the Devils internally combusted and it ended up working out for them. The list of accolades Smith has ranked up in his junior days are lengthy. He has been the WHL Defenseman of the Year each of the past two years, CHL Defenseman of the Year in 2018-19, and he led Team Canada to a gold medal at the 2020 World Juniors. My comp for Smith has long been Nashville defenseman Ryan Ellis. Ellis is right-handed and Smith is left-handed but their games are remarkably similar. Ellis might be a bit more offensive-minded while I think Smith possesses the ability to log some more difficult defensive minutes. Either way, Smith is easily one of the top defenseman in the New Jersey system (NHL roster or otherwise) and he should finally receive significant NHL minutes starting this fall.
Vitali Kravtsov (RW, NYR): This is an aggressive ranking for Kravtsov given his poor season. He had a decent training camp, didn't make the Rangers, was sent to Hartford, and last just a handful of games before returning to the KHL. That didn't work, and he was back with the Wolf Pack a few months later. By all accounts, Kravtsov played far better upon returning. He won't turn 21 years of age until late December and he's a pure offensive player so it shouldn't really come as a surprise that he struggled away from the puck in his first season in a new country. All told, he posted six goals and 15 points in 39 AHL games. I wish Kravtsov played with a bit more pace at times but he's extremely creative with the puck and lethal on the power play. There's obvious risk here but very few prospects can match Kravtsov's long-term potential upside. Adding Lafreniere to the mix should only help matters.
Barrett Hayton (C, ARI): Arizona was extremely careful in regards to managing expectations for Hayton this past season. He ended up playing 20 games for Arizona (four points), five games for their AHL affiliate in Tuscon (five points), in addition to captaining Canada to a gold medal at the World Juniors. I've been a bit slow to come around on Hayton because there isn't a ton of flash-and-dash to his game. He's an excellent offensive player but he's not the type to go end-to-end and walk opposing defenders. He wins with hockey sense and smarts. I would have personally preferred that Arizona went with a sink-or-swim mentality regarding Hayton this past season but he was clearly too good to return to the OHL and there is definite value in having him around professionals the entire year. I also thought the decision to release him for the World Juniors was a smart one. I don't think Hayton has the ceiling of most of the players listed ahead of him here but he's a high-floor prospect who should be able to realistically compete for a top-six role this coming fall.
Grigori Denisenko (LW, FLA): Denisenko arrives stateside this falling following a two-year stint in the KHL. While his numbers with Yaroslavl were only fair (10 goals, 18 points in 63 games), those statistics are underselling Denisenko's offensive potential. He gets in hard on the forecheck and has more than enough skill to finish from in tight. He also plays bigger than his listed height of 5-foot-11, 180 pounds. I many ways, I think Denisenko's game is better suited to North American hockey. A clear physical edge to Denisenko's game would appear to give him both a high floor and even higher ceiling. He may have to begin this coming season in the minors but I think he could handle a top-nine role out of the gate for Florida without issue.
Gabriel Vilardi (C, LA): As is always the case, I struggled in regards to where to rank Vilardi. He's an easy top-15 talent but his injury history -- most notably a back issues -- is extremely concerning. The is a player who played 36 games combined over the course of the 2017-18 and 2018-19 campaigns. Vilardi was mostly healthy this past season, playing 32 games for AHL Ontario (25 points) and ten games with the Kings (seven points). When healthy, Vilardi is a do-it-all two-way center with the size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) to impact a game. It's very difficult to project a full workload for Vilardi in any given season given his past issues but I am extremely confident he will be at least a No. 2 center for as long as his body holds up. Los Angeles would be wise to manage Vilardi's reps as much as possible moving forward. He's one of their greatest assets.
Nils Lundkvist (D, NYR): No defensive prospect in the NHL raised his stock more over the past 12 months than Lundkvist. the 2018 first-rounder (No. 28 overall) set a new SHL record for most points (31 in 45 games) by a U-20 defenseman. The Swede was viewed by most as a "safe" selection when taken by New York but other NHL clubs underrated both his skating and decision making. Lundkvist's hockey IQ is borderline elite and he rarely puts himself or his teammates in a bad spot. He doesn't project as a first-unit power-play guy in the NHL but he should be able to fill a role on the second unit in addition to playing heavy minutes at even strength and on the penalty kill. Lundkvist -- who turned 20 years of age this past July -- is just about ready to play in the NHL but he and the Rangers spoke and decide he would spend more season with his club team in Lulea before signing his entry-level deal. It was a smart decision given the fact European professional leagues figure to start considerably earlier than North American leagues. Assuming they are in the discussion for a playoff spot in the 2020-21 season, I could easily see the Rangers signing Lundkvist once the SHL season ends and immediately inserting him into their lineup late in the year.
Anton Lundell (C, FLA): For me, Lundell's entire game is underappreciated. He's a big-bodied forward who appears to be just about NHL-ready, and in some ways, that has translated into a perceived lack of long-time upside. I don't see Lundell developing into a No. 1 center for the Panthers but his overall game is remarkably well-rounded. His biggest weakness is probably his speed but Lundell's work ethic is exceptional and I have long believed his hands and creativity with the puck were underrated. Florida fans expecting Lundell to impact a game to the level of Aleksander Barkov are going to come away disappointed but Lundell should provide the Panthers with a solid two-way, No. 2 center for the better part of the next decade.
Jack Quinn (C, BUF): Quinn had a massive season, finishing second in the OHL in goals with 52. This is a kid who scored just 12 times a year ago. Quinn's detractors would say his massive production was simply the result of playing for the best team in the OHL (Ottawa). True, Quinn doesn't possess the same scoring touch as guys previously mentioned on this list such as Caufield and Holtz, but Quinn gets his shot off extremely quickly and is seemingly always in the correct place in this offensive zone. He's an excellent offensive player but he has just one year of production under his belt and his skating is no better than average. I don't see a ton of middle ground with Quinn. I expect him to either continue his development and eventually turn into a clear cut top-six offensive weapon for Buffalo, or wash out completely The Sabres better hope it's the former.
Vasili Podkolzin (RW, VAN): Podkolzin's KHL contract reportedly runs through the end of this coming season. Vancouver was clearly aware of that fact when they spent the No. 10 overall selection on him in the 2019 draft. I'm on the fence as to whether Podkolzin is a really good second-liner or a legitimate top-line prospect. He makes a ton of plays and is seemingly always on the puck despite having nothing more than average speed. His hockey sense is outstanding. Assuming Podkolzin arrives in Vancouver in the fall of 2021, I expect him to immediately claim a full-time role in the Vancouver lineup. He won't turn 20 years of age until next June, so Podkolzin could fill a bottom-six/power-play role for a year (or however long is needed) before the Canucks push him up in the lineup.
Matthew Boldy (LW, MIN): Boldy had a considerably better freshman season for Boston College than his numbers (nine goals, 26 points in 34 games) would indicate. He was the victim of bad bounces and poor puck luck for the majority of the year. He was also left off the Unites States World Junior roster despite being the No. 12 overall selection just months earlier. When he's on his game, which he has been through four games (eight points) with the Eagles this season, Boldy is an unstoppable physical force. He possesses a remarkable blend of both skill and creativity. He's also 6-foot-2 and well over 200 pounds. The Minnesota prospect pool could charitably be called a work in progress but Boldy and Kaprizov give them two potential stars. I could see Boldy turning pro after this coming year if he has another strong season for BC.
Owen Tippett (RW, FLA): Tippett's first few AHL season was a rousing success. He was named an AHL All-Star while posting 19 goals and 40 points in 46 games for Springfield. Tippett is a pure sniper. He's a right-handed shot with the ability to plan either wing position. He excels on the power-play and can hammer a one-timer with the man advantage. He would seemingly have very little to gain playing another season in the minors, but Tippett isn't going to be of any use to the Panthers if he's playing a bottom-six role. He's a risky projection simply because he's going to have very little value if he isn't scoring goals.
Jake Sanderson (D, OTT): The Senators were set up perfectly to remake their franchise in this past October's draft, with two top-five picks (Nos. 3 and 5). They took Stutzle at No. 3, and instead of doubling down with another elite forward (Perfetti, Raymond, Rossi, Holtz), bought into the recency bias and took Sanderson instead. That's not to say Sanderson isn't a good player. I had him ranked No. 12 on my big board and I have no doubt other teams would have taken a long hard look at him in the later stages of the lottery. Sanderson has the size (6-foot-2) and skating ability to develop into a shutdown defenseman. He got a ton of power-play time with the US NTDP program this past season, but his offensive game, while fine, is pretty basic. Unless Sanderson possesses some dynamic offensive traits we haven't seen yet (highly unlikely, if not impossible), it's going to be difficult for him to provide value given where he was selected. Again, I like the player, just not the thought process behind the pick.
Scott Perunovich (D, STL): Adam Fox didn't recieve the attention of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes this past year but he would have been a legitimate Calder Trophy candidate in almost any other season. He's a calming influence with exceptional vision and Perunovich possesses many of those same traits. He's very much a "modern" NHL defenseman in the sense that he wins with his brain as opposed to size and physicality. Perunovich won the Hobey Baker Award this past season as the top player in collegiate hockey. He was named the top offensive defenseman in the NCHC in each of his three seasons at Minnesota-Duluth. He's not going to make St. Louis fans forget former captain Alex Pietrangelo but I think Perunovich can provide similar production in short order at about a tenth of the price. My Blues may have Perunovich ticketed for a brief stint in the minors but my guess is that he's so impressive in training camp they have no choice but to carry him all season.
Moritz Seider (D, DET): The Wings tossed a curve ball to everyone -- including Seider himself -- taking the hulking German rearguard No. 6 overall in the 2019 draft. I thought it was a significant reach at the time and was a modest reach now, but Seider -- who spent the entire season (other than a loan to the World Juniors) in the AHL -- showed a much more advanced offensive game in Grand Rapids than most predicted. Seider finished with two goals and 22 points in 49 games for the Griffins. Those are more than respectable numbers for a who spent nearly the entirety of the season in the AHL as an 18-year-old. Seider will never be mistaken for Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes but he has enough skill to provide some secondary offense for the Red Wings. His ceiling appears to be that of a physical, two-way rearguard who can provide Detroit with well over 20 minutes of solid work per night. I would absolutely give Seider another year in the AHL. The Wings are several seasons away from anything resembling competing and Seider is still plenty young.
Peyton Krebs (C, VGK): The Golden Knights have only been around for a few years and have quickly established themselves as one of the better run franchises in the league. The selection of Krebs at No. 17 overall in 2019 is a perfect example of that. Krebs suffered a knee injury leading up to the draft. It was by all accounts a minor issue and shouldn't have impacted where he was selected, but Krebs ultimately dropped a handful of spots and Vegas quickly snatched him up. Krebs can play both center and wing and appears to be just about ready for NHL duty despite the fact he won't turn 20 years of age until this coming January. Krebs appears to be one of those players who appears to be destined to be underappreciated his entire career. Not saying they're similar players, but think Craig Smith. Or Anders Lee. Guys who offer immense value and go about their business despite not ever being mentioned alongside the best in the game. Krebs should make an impact up and down the lineup for Vegas and it could begin this coming season.
Philip Tomasino (C, NSH): Tomasino continues to fly under the radar despite being one of just four OHL players to score 100 points last season. I thought he was a schrewd pick by Nashville at No. 24 overall in 2019 but he's surpassed my expectations. Tomasino has shockingly few holes in his game for such a young player. He's the type of kid you can deploy on your power-play if you need a goal to tie a game or a penalty kill if you're protecting a lead late. I've long felt Tomasino was a dark horse to play NHL games in 2020-21 and nothing has changed regarding my assessment there. I would be shocked if he didn't develop into a successful NHL player in some capacity. Tomasino simply has too much going for him.
Connor McMichael (C, WAS): The Washington prospect pool is among the worst in the league but they hit a home run spending the No. 25 overall pick in 2019 on McMichael. Like many, I had McMichael ticketed as a probably third-line center throughout the draft process. That was still my belief at this start of this past year before McMichael went out and posted 47 goals and 102 points in 52 games for OHL London. McMichael's hockey IQ is elite. He's always in the correct place (in both zones) and his ability to anticipate a play in remarkable. If his strong play for London wasn't enough, McMichael also had an excellent World Juniors in helping Canada win the gold medal. The Caps need to generate some youth into their lineup and McMichael is one of the few legitimate options they have to make that happen. The club has no choice but to give him a long look in training camp. A nine-game trial is a possibility.
Rodion Amirov (LW, TOR): Always looking to add more skill to their lineup and owning a rare mid first-rounder (from Pittsburgh in the Kasperi Kapanen deal) in the 2020 draft, Toronto popped Amirov at No. 15 overall. It was right in line with where he was expected to be drafted. Amirov is a purely offensive player. He's shifty and has above-average hands. His physical game is lacking at the moment but I expect that to change as Amirov adds more muscle to his lean frame. He's deceptively good at controlling the puck along the wall for a kid who is barely 170 pounds at the moment. There are the usual risks here that come along with drafting any Russian prospect, but I'm sure Toronto inquired about Amirov's plans to come to North America before drafting him.
Oliver Wahlstrom (RW, NYI): Wahlstrom's first professional season was pretty good, all things considered. He was fairly effective for Bridgeport (10 goals, 22 points in 45 games) in addition to suiting up for nine (scoreless) NHL games with the Isles. It was a decent showing following his dreadful year at Boston College a season earlier. Wahlstrom's stock has definitely dropped since the Islanders took him No. 11 overall in 2018. He has an excellent shot but I don't love his decision making with the puck at times and he offers little defensively. This one could go either way. I could see a scenario in which Wahlstrom becomes a perennial 30-goal man and I could see a scenario in which he spends the majority of his career as an up-and-down guy.
Nils Hoglander (LW, VAN): Very few players on this list can match the individual offensive skill set Hoglander brings to the table. He's one of the few prospects in the league with the ability to consistently beat opposing defenders 1-on-1. Despite being just 5-foot-9, Hoglander is by no means a perimeter player. If anything, he might got to the difficult areas of the ice to make a play too often. I would like to see Hoglander pick his spots a bit more in the offensive zone, as he clearly has the ability to get where he wants to go with the puck on his stick without issue. There's a ton to be excited about here, as Hoglander would appear to fit in exceptionally well alongside Vancouver's top offensive players such as Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes.
Thomas Harley (D, DAL): Like Cale Makar a year earlier, Harley was credited with making his NHL debut in the postseason this year. He got into one of Dallas' Round Robin games against Colorado, playing 14 uneventful shifts for 10:58 worth of ice time. On paper, Harley looks like a legitimate top-pairing defender. He's 6-foot-3, owns both a massive shot and a legitimate set of wheels, in addition to possessing the creativity to set up his teammates. While the tools are undoubtedly there, Harley is still working on putting it all together and more so, doing it on a nightly basis. Assuming his continues his develop, Harley is clearly pegged to be Dallas' long-term No. 2 option on defense behind Miro Heiskanen.
Alexander Romanov (D, MON): Everything I mentioned earlier about the contract situations of Kaprizov and Sorokin applies to Romanov, as well, with the one difference being Romanov -- who is just 20 years old -- was a 2018 draft pick. Montreal selected Romanov No. 38 in that draft. It was a selection that was widely panned due to the vast most observers felt Romanov could have been had at least a round later. He's taken a regular shift for CSKA Moscow of the KHL each of the past two season and has been effective in doing so. Romanov is not an offensive defenseman. He didn't score a single goal this season in 43 games and has just 11 points in 86 games over the past two years. Romanov might not be the biggest guy in the world (5-foot-11, 185 pounds) but he plays like he has dynamite in his shoulder pads. He loves to throw the big hit and plays with an edge to his game. I love him and think he has immediate top-four potential but Romanov will almost certainly always fly a bit under-the-radar given the lack of offensive production here.
Ryan Merkley (D, SJ): As usual, I struggled massively with where to rank Merkley on this list. If he hits his ceiling, Merkley will be one of the NHL's better defensemen. The issue is that all that value is going to come in the offensive zone. Then there's the attitude concerns, which by all accounts, was much less of an issue this past season when Merkley played for the most stable organization in the OHL in London. If everything breaks right, maybe Merkley becomes Tony DeAngelo? DeAngelo finished fourth among all NHL defensemen in scoring this past season. The only guys above him were Norris Trophy winner Roman Josi, John Carlson, and Victor Hedman. DeAngelo finished with more points than, among others, Tyler Seguin, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Taylor Hall, and Filip Forsberg. My point is, Merkley's natural talents (like DeAngelo) can carry him to a productive NHL career, but his window for success is exceedingly small. DeAngelo was traded twice before finally finding a home with the Rangers. It will be interesting to see if Merkley can develop with just one organization in the Sharks.
Morgan Frost (C, PHI): Frost would be a full time NHL player by now if he was in an organization with less offensive depth. As is, he got into 20 games with the Flyers this past season and played well, posting seven points. Frost is a crafty, offensive playmaker. He's calm and composed with the puck and possesses enough speed to make creative plays off the rush. A 21-year-old with this type of skill set is highly valuable. The Flyers have done a great job of building up their farm system over the past several years and Frost is a prime example of that. I could see a scenario in which Frost again splits this coming year between the Flyers and their AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley, but he should be a full-time, productive NHL player by the start of the 2021-22 season.
Evan Bouchard (D, EDM): If you forced me to give a status report on Bouchard, I would say his stock is trending in the wrong direction. Part of that is due to the fact I -- like the Oilers, even though they'd never admit -- fully expected Bouchard to have secured a full-time NHL role by now. Instead, he is yet to make his NHL debut. Bouchard would have appeared to be a prime candidate to replace the injured Oscar Klefbom (who might be out of the season) on Edmonton's No. 1 power-play unit this coming year but the Oilers went out and signed Tyson Barrie for specifically that reason. Edmonton also has six NHL defensemen under contract and it's impossible to see them carrying Bouchard as a seventh, so he's likely headed back to the AHL (assuming there is an AHL) to begin the season. Bouchard isn't as naturally gifted as a guy like Merkley but the vast majority of his success is going to for the offense he generates and the Oilers don't appear to have any desire to put him in position to succeed. It's a odd situation all the way around.
Connor Zary (C, CGY): I had Zary ranked No. 14 on my big board for the 2020 NHL Draft, a far cry from where he actually went, No. 24 overall to Calgary. Zary brings a highly intriguing combination of skill and desire to the table. Zary is a legitimate top-six offensive talent. His decision making process with the puck is lightning-quick and he is equally adept at both finishing and setting up his teammates. The biggest knock on Zary is his skating but his work ethic and the fact he is constantly moving his feet cancels much of those concerns out. He's a high-upside play for an organization that lacks top-flight talent in their system.
K'Andre Miller (D, NYR): A member of the University of Wisconsin sinking ship that included Turcotte and Caufield, Miller wasn't as effective in his sophomore season as he was his freshman year. His offensive numbers (18 points in 36 games) dropped considerably compared to a year ago (22 points in 26 games) and I'd term his performance for Team USA at the World Juniors as no better than average. Miller is a true physical specimen. He looks like an NFL linebacker on skates and has the quickness to match. My main concern at this point is his decision making with the puck. He signed with the Rangers in mid-March and was expected to finish the season with AHL Hartford prior to the shutdown. High on his potential and concerned he wouldn't be playing competitive games for many months, the Rangers included Miller on their summer camp roster despite the fact he was ineligible to play in the NHL's postseason tournament. Miller -- by all accounts -- performed very well in the brief showcase and didn't look the least bit out of place. I imagine he is going to spend the vast majority of the 2020-21 season in the AHL but his ceiling remains massive. If everything breaks correctly, Miller could be a two-way horse on the back end for New York.
Cam York (D, PHI): A member of the 2019-20 Big 10 All-Rookie Team, York (five goals, 16 points in 30 games) played pretty well in his freshman season at the University of Michigan. His poise with the puck and ability to read opposing defenses is remarkable but York's play in his own zone needs work. He was underwhelming at the World Juniors and there are concerns regarding York's ability to play significant defensive minutes at the NHL level. How York's defensive play improves over the course of the next several years figures to be the difference as to whether or not he is a 15-minute No. 4-5 power-play guy or a 20-plus-minute No .2 or No. 3 power-play weapon. I think it's reasonable to expect York to average upwards of a point-per-game next season given the high-end freshman recruiting class the Wolverines are bringing in.
Noel Gunler (RW, CAR): Carolina has quickly established itself as the NHL's most potent draft bargain-hunter over the course of the past few years, and the selection of Gunler at No. 41 overall is the latest example. Gunler was one of the draft's premier offensive weapons. He dominated the Swedish Jr. league but his minutes have always been limited during his time with Lulea of the SHL and his production dropped as a result. There have also been some minor attitude concerns with Gunler in the past, but those concerns don't appear to be a huge issue moving forward. I have always been of the belief that all NHL teams should draft for upside every single time they pick and it's exceedingly rare to find a player with Gunler's long-term potential in Round 2. It's going to be a process, but the Hurricanes have the depth to play the long game with this talented Swede.