DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 77 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 77 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The final chapter of a trilogy between two of the greatest middleweights in UFC history headlines Saturday's card from Sao Paulo.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Middleweight

Vitor Belfort (24-11-0) v. Dan Henderson (31-13-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Belfort ($10,800), Henderson ($8,600)
Vegas Odds:Belfort (-360), Henderson (+300)

As was mentioned earlier, this is the third fight between these two long-time staples in the UFC. Henderson won the first bout via unanimous decision way back in October 2006, and Belfort won the rematch via first-round KO in November 2013. Belfort came up short in his effort to win the middleweight title against Chris Weidman in his last fight in May, but since January 2012, he has wins over Anthony Johnson, Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold. That being said, he hasn't won since the last fight against Henderson. Hendo appeared to be on the verge of retirement after back-to-back losses against Daniel Cormier and Gegard Mousasi, but he responded with a first-round KO win over Tim Boetsch in June. Boetsch should have retired months ago, so it's hard to see that victory meaning a whole lot. This fight figures to go like all of Henderson's fights over the past two-plus years -- if he lands one of his signature right hands, he has a good chance of picking up a knockout win. If he doesn't, he almost will almost certainly be in for a rough evening. Henderson is 45 years old. That is not a misprint. He keeps himself in good shape, but this is a sport where 90% of the guys are done by their mid to early 30's. He's still going out there at age 45. At 37 years old, Belfort is no spring chicken, either. There will be questions surrounding Belfort and his TRT issues, but he actually looked pretty good against Weidman early in the fight. Belfort started with a flurry before Weidman threw him to the ground and pounded him into submission. Henderson doesn't have the ability to do that. Add in the fact that the fight is in Belfort's native Brazil and it's easy to understand why he is a large favorite. Henderson will have a chance in every fight because of his power, but as he ages, the odds of landing one of those shots decreases exponentially. .
THE PICK: Belfort

Co-Main Event – Light Heavyweight

Glover Teixeira (23-4-0) v. Patrick Cummins (8-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Teixeira ($11,000), Cummins ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Teixeira (-440), Cummins (+350)

This is a terrific fight. Teixeira looked terrible in his title fight against Jon Jones and followed that up with a dreadful performance against Phil Davis. He then rebounded to dominate Ovince St. Preux in his last fight in August. Teixiera has an impressive all-around game, but he is 36 years old and has looked fairly lousy for the better part of the last two years. Those of you who read our work regularly know that I am a big fan of Cummins. I think he has another level that we haven't seen from him yet. We all know Cummins' game plan – he is a wrestler who has struggled to finish fights. I think the fact that this is a three-round fight benefits Cummins. He has tired a bit late in fights and Teixeira is generally in good shape. Teixeira is also a very good wrestler, but his takedown defense (63 percent) is surprisingly average. I think the Vegas odds on this fight are absolutely crazy. Teixeira has done far more in his career, so he certainly deserves to be the favorite, but he certainly hasn't looked unstoppable lately and Cummins is a quality opponent. Teixeira may have the ability to grind out a win, but Cummins isn't going to lie on his back and allow it to happen. I don't do this often, but I think this is one of those cases where Cummins DK salary is so reasonable that it is going to sway my pick. Cummins seems like a real value play, something that isn't too often these days.
THE PICK: Cummins

Bantamweight

Thomas Almeida (20-0-0) v. Anthony Birchak (12-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Almeida ($10,900), Birchak ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Almeida (-440), Birchak (+350)

Birchak gets the next opportunity to stop the Almeida hype train. It seems unlikely to happen. Almeida is one of the brightest prospects in all of MMA. He is only 24 years old and already has 20 professional wins under his belt without a loss. Almeida was greatly tested in his last fight against Brad Pickett in July, something that will help him moving forward. Pickett dropped Almeida with a couple of huge shots, but the young Brazilian recovered, survived the first round and responded with a highlight reel KO win early in round two. 15 of Almeida's 20 wins are via knockout. The kid has ridiculous skills. Although it seems unlikely that he will pull the upset, Birchak is no pushover. He looked dreadful in his UFC debut last December (first-round submission loss to Ian Entwistle), but he responded with a first round KO win over the underrated Joe Soto in June. Birchak's only prayer in this fight will be to get it to the ground. He has averaged over five takedowns in his two UFC fights, so he has that ability, but Almeida is a terrific athlete and Birchak isn't going to be able to match his explosiveness on the feet. It is an interesting clash in styles. There's one fighter who is always moving forward and dominates on the feet (Almeida) and another who does his best work on the ground and relies on his defense in striking exchanges (Birchak). The odds on this one seem just about right. Birchak has a shot, but it's a small one.
THE PICK: Almeida

Lightweight

Alex Oliveira (12-2-1, 1NC) v. Piotr Hallman (15-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira ($10,500), Hallman ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-210), Hallman (+175)

Finally UFC fans will get to see what Oliveira can do with a full training camp. His last two fights, wins over K.J. Noons and Joe Merritt, both came on short notice. Heck, he took the Merritt fight on just 10 days notice! Fighting what figures to be an inferior opponent in his native country should bode well for Oliveira. Oliveira tends to be a low-output striker (he lands just 1.3 significant strikes per minute), but he has also averaged 3.7 takedowns per fight in his UFC career. Hallman tends to be far more active on the fight (4.1 significant strikes landed per minute), but he has always been a fighter who takes too much punishment on the feet. He was blasted in a striking battle against Al Iaquinta and lost a fight against Gleison Tibau because he couldn't defend a takedown. The only advantage that Hallman figures to have is in the submission game. He has seven career submission wins, six of which are via rear-naked choke. I don't think Oliveira is as good as his last two fights have made him out to be, but I think he's better than Hallman
THE PICK: Oliveira

Lightweight

Gilbert Burns (10-0-0) v. Rashid Magomedov (18-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Burns ($9,400), Magomedov ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Burns (+150), Magomedov (-170)

This could be a sleeper for Fight of the Night. Burns is undefeated and has back-to-back Performance of the Night bonuses for submission wins over Alex Oliveira and the since-released Christos Giagos. Burns is very strong physically and one of the best submission artists in the lightweight division. Magomedov is a striker. He has a Russian Master of Sports in both hand-to-hand combat and in boxing. Simply put, he can beat the tar out of pretty much any living human being with his hands. He is super aggressive on the feet and his game plan will almost certainly be to push the pace against the methodical Burns. And even though Burns is the better wrestler, Magomedov's takedown defense (91.6 percent) is exceptional. Burns has always struck me as a bit overrated. Sure, his record is undefeated, but he was in trouble in two of his three UFC fights and I don't see how he handles the pressure of Magomedov on the feet.
THE PICK: Magomedov

Light Heavyweight

Fabio Maldonado (22-7-0) v. Corey Anderson (7-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Maldonado ($8,300), Anderson ($11,100)
Vegas Odds: Maldonado (+425), Anderson (-550)

Anderson is taking this fight on roughly two weeks notice, replacing an injured Tom Lawlor. The good news for Anderson is that the 35-year-old Maldonado is just about at the end of the line. Maldonado has always been a guy who has preferred to slug it out, relying on his granite chin and his striking ability. The problem is, at his advanced age, Maldonado's output has slowed and he is having problems ducking shots from the opposition. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Rampage Jackson in April, in a fight that we would all wish to forget. I am not the biggest Anderson supporter, but I admit he looked good in his last fight against Jan Blachowicz in early September and he is a far better athlete than Maldonado. He is also nearly 10 years younger. This should set up as an easy win for Anderson. I have no idea how Maldonado can win. Perhaps he can land that one big shot that can finish Anderson off, but that can happen in any fight. Let's just say that Anderson is in trouble if he loses this fight.
THE PICK: Anderson

Other Bouts


Lightweight

Gleison Tibau (40-11-0) v. Abel Trujillo (12-6-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Tibau ($9,800), Trujillo ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Tibau (-130), Trujillo (+110)
THE PICK: Tibau

Lightweight

Yan Cabral (12-1-0) v. Johnny Case (21-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Cabral ($8,800), Case ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Cabral (+220), Case (-260)
THE PICK: Case

Featherweight

Clay Guida (32-12-0) v. Thiago Tavares (23-6-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Guida ($10,200), Tavares ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Guida (-165), Tavares (+145)
THE PICK: Guida

Featherweight

Kevin Souza (19-3-0) v. Chas Skelly (14-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Souza ($9,300), Skelly ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: Souza (+140), Skelly (-160)
THE PICK: Souza

Welterweight

Viscardi Andrade (17-7-0) v. Gasan Umalatov (15-4-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Andrade ($9,500), Umalatov ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (+105), Umalatov (-125)
THE PICK: Umalatov

Bantamweight

Pedro Munhoz (12-1-0) v. Jimmie Rivera (17-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Munhoz ($10,400), Rivera ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Munhoz (-165), Rivera (+145)
THE PICK: Munhoz

Bantamweight

Bruno Korea (4-0-0) v. Matheus Nicolau (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Korea ($9,100), Nicolau ($10,300)
Vegas Odds: Korea (+155), Nicolau (-175)
THE PICK: Nicolau

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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