DraftKings MMA: UFC Gdansk

DraftKings MMA: UFC Gdansk

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

One of the most recognizable faces in the UFC looks to bounce back from his first career losing streak Saturday in Poland. It's a rare afternoon card, so be sure you're up early to put the finishing touches on those lineups.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

(Please note that DraftKings has altered their scoring system. The new point values are listed below and the rosters will now expand from 5 to 6 fighters).

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event - Welterweight

Donald Cerrone (32-9-0, 1NC) v. Darren Till (15-0-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Cerrone ($8,500), Till ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Cerrone (-150), Till (+130)
Odds to Finish: -175

A loser of back-to-back fights for the first time in his pro career and getting hit more than ever, we have reached the point where I am officially concerned about Cowboy. I know he can't help himself, but coming back less than three months after an all-out brawl with Robbie Lawler seems like a bad idea to me. Cerrone's movements have slowed considerably in his last few fights. His footwork has become suspect and he hasn't shown an ability to consistently get his head off the center line when he opponents is firing off combinations.

Till, who won turn 25 years old until December, remains undefeated as a professional. He has an extensive Muay Thai background and with nine career knockouts under his belt, a ton of pop in his hands. That's the good news. The bad news it that this is essentially the first high profile fight of his entire career and he has never faced an opponent who is remotely in Cowboy's league. We are going to find out real quickly if the young Englishman is a fighter to take seriously moving forward.

Cerrone's conditioning should be an asset in a five round fight, as will the fact he has been battling the best fighters in the world for more than a decade. You cannot put a price on experience. Still, facing a young, active fighter that excels at striking is a worst-case scenario for Cowboy these days. I'm still going to pick him because I want to see Till beat an elite fighter before I buy in, but I am not confident about the selection in the least. I expect a highly entertaining bout and I expect Till to land more than his fair share of shots even if he loses. I would be worried about Cerrone given his salary.

THE PICK: Cerrone

Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-2-0) v. Jodie Esquibel (6-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Kowalkiewicz ($9,500), Esquibel ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Kowalkiewicz (-425), Esquibel (+340)
Odds to Finish: +235

Coming off back-to-back losses to UFC Women's Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and top contender Claudia Gadelha, Kowalkiewicz gets a chance to rebound in her native Poland. I don't think Karolina is going to have any issues defeating Esquibel, but when you dig a bit deeper, her UFC run hasn't been as impressive as it would seem on the surface. She is 3-2 with the company and all three victories have come via decision (one split). For a fighter with a strong Muay Thai background, Kowalkiewicz has just one knockout win in her entire career. By contrast, she has two wins via submission. Karolina has quick hands and she hits hard, but I would like to see her combinations do a bit more damage.

Esquibel gets the call to make her UFC debut following a six-fight run with Invicta. Her record during that time was positive (4-2) but all four wins came via decision and three were of the split variety. Simply put, there isn't much of a reason to be excited about Esquibel moving forward. She doesn't have one distinct skill that will help her win fights, and I have yet to see a reason to think she can compete with the best 115 pounders in the world. A best-case scenario for Esquibel would be for her to win enough fights to develop into roster depth for an extended period of time.

Even if you don't think Kowalkiewicz is on the same level as the top fighters in the division, it's difficult to see her losing to Esquibel. I also think Karolina is a good DraftKings play despite her massive salary, because she should have no issues landing with regularity throughout the course of the fight.

THE PICK: Kowalkiewicz

Light Heavyweight

Jan Blachowicz (19-7-0) v. Devin Clark (8-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Blachowicz ($7,800), Clark ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Blachowicz (+130), Clark (-150)
Odds to Finish: +140

Sporting a dreadful 1-4 record in his past five bouts, Blachowicz needs a win in his home country if he hopes to avoid a release. The 34-year-old has a respectable all-around game, but he often goes long stretches of time without dealing out much punishment. The UFC's light heavyweight division needs all the fighters that it can find, but there is no reason to think Blachowicz is anything more than roster depth at this point. All four of his recent losses have come against respectable (Patrick Cummins, Corey Anderson) and elite (Alexander Gustafsson, Jimi Manuwa) competition, but at some point as a fighter you need to start stringing some wins together.

Clark has run off a pair of unanimous decisions wins following a first-round KO loss to Alex Nicholson in July of 2016. Clark's background is in wrestling and while he looks strong on the mat, his inexperience in the striking game is evident at times. He's a solid athlete that hasn't been a professional for very long, so there is room for improvement.

Blachowicz can forget about the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, he just needs a victory to save his job. He has a slight size advantage, but he is facing an opponent in Clark that is a better athlete and has exhibited more explosiveness in a brief career. I don't think anyone can accurately predict what is going to happen here. I wouldn't be surprised if the younger Clark came through, nor would I be shocked if the home crowd urged Blachowicz to a close victory. Give me Clark for the win, but I advise staying away from this fight.

THE PICK: Clark

Other Bouts

Middleweight

Oskar Piechota (9-0-0) v. Jonathan Wilson (7-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Piechota ($8,900), Wilson ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Piechota (-185), Wilson (+160)
Odds to Finish: -260
THE PICK: Piechota

Lightweight

Marcin Held (22-7-0) v. Nasrat Haqparast (8-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Held ($9,400), Haqparast ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Held (-440), Haqparast (+350)
Odds to Finish: -170
THE PICK: Held

Heavyweight

Anthony Hamilton (15-8-0) v. Adam Wieczorek (8-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hamilton ($7,600), Wieczorek ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Hamilton (+100), Wieczorek (-120)
Odds to Finish: -350
THE PICK: Wieczorek

Bantamweight

Damian Stasiak (10-4-0) v. Brian Kelleher (17-8-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Stasiak ($7,900), Kelleher ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Stasiak (+100), Kelleher (-120)
Odds to Finish: +130
THE PICK: Stasiak

Middleweight

Sam Alvey (31-9-0, 1NC) v. Ramazan Emeev (15-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alvey ($8,000), Emeev ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Alvey (+115), Emeev (-135)
Odds to Finish: +105
THE PICK: Emeev

Featherweight

Artem Lobov (14-13-1, 1NC) v. Andre Fili (16-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lobov ($7,500), Fili ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Lobov (+140), Fili (-160)
Odds to Finish: +175
THE PICK: Fili

Welterweight

Warlley Alves (11-2-0) v. Salim Touhari (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alves ($9,200), Touhari ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Alves (-300), Touhari (+250)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Alves

Women's Bantamweight

Lina Lansberg (7-2-0) v. Aspen Ladd (5-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lansberg ($7,400), Ladd ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Lansberg (+160), Ladd (-185)
Odds to Finish: +170
THE PICK: Lansberg

Featherweight

Felipe Arantes (18-7-1, 2NC) v. Josh Emmett (11-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Arantes ($7,100), Emmett ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Arantes (+290), Emmett (-350)
Odds to Finish: +145
THE PICK: Emmett

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MMA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MMA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic
MMA Expert Picks: UFC 309 Main Card
MMA Expert Picks: UFC 309 Main Card
UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC 309
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC 309
DraftKings MMA: UFC 309 DFS Preview
DraftKings MMA: UFC 309 DFS Preview