This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 80 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Grant Dawson (20-1-1) v. Bobby Green (30-14-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dawson ($9,400), Green ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Dawson (-425), Green (+300)
Now 37 years of age, Green was due to hang up his gloves following a fight against Jared Gordon this past April. That bout lasted less than a round before being declared a no-contest following an accidental clash of heads. Green got back in the Octagon in late-July, submitting what is left of Tony Ferguson on the main card of a Pay-Per-View. Now he gets a headlining gig against Dawson. Not bad for a guy that was scheduled to be retired for five-plus months now.
The 29-year-old Dawson has been brilliant since his March 2019 UFC arrival. He's undefeated in nine bouts with the company, with his lone non-win being a majority draw against Rick Glenn (who is also on this card). Grant's breakout appears to be, at least in my eyes, entirely legitimate and sustainable. He might not be a future title challenger or anything like that, but Dawson has legitimate top-five potential despite competing in arguably the deepest division in the sport.
The driving force behind Dawson's success is his wrestling game. He's averaging 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 36 percent of his attempts. He's gotten all nine of his opponents to the mat at least once and has landed multiple takedowns in eight of those bouts. We all know Green isn't much of a grappler, but he typically does a good job of staying upright. He's been taken down just once in his last seven bouts, and that came against current UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev.
The question becomes how does Green win this fight? He has one knockout in nearly a decade, so the odds of him being able to put Dawson away on the feet are slim. His submission of Ferguson was his first in more than a decade. So not only will he consistently have to stop the takedown attempts of his opponent, but Green will also have to worry about landing enough volume in the stand-up to take a decision.
Then toss in the fact he's facing a much younger opponent who is a considerably better athlete. The company giving Green a main event slot at this stage of his career is a gift, and Bobby absolutely made the right move by accepting it, but while the UFC did Green plenty of favors in a matchup against Ferguson, they're putting him in an equally difficult position against Dawson.
This line has moved massively in Dawson's direction of late, and understandably so. He opened in the -350 range.
Green has been long enough and fought enough high-end competition that I can see a scenario in which he is able to frustrate Dawson for short periods at a time, but over the course of 25 minutes, I think Grant wins this fight easily.
THE PICK: Dawson
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Joe Pyfer (11-2-0) v. Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pyfer ($9,300), Alhassan ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Pyfer (-470), Alhassan (+360)
Although the sample size is small, Pyfer has been dominant in his brief run with the company. He knocked out Osman Diaz on Dana White's Contender Series back in July 2022 and has since picked up back-to-back first-round knockout wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Alen Amedovski to since officially joining the roster. Pyfer's power is clearly legitimate. The question now is whether it will carry over against better competition.
Few fighters in the company has been as streaky as Alhassan. He won four of his first five UFC bouts, lost his next three, and has since bounced back to win two of his last three. Ultimately, Alhassan has been about a .500 fighter, which is what I expect from him moving forward.
In 30 combined pro fights, each man has been knocked out once. That said, I'd be far from shocked if this one doesn't see the final bell.
Alhassan is a better athlete than he gets credit for, and Pyfer has displayed some reasonable grappling skills during his brief time with the UFC, but make no mistake about it, both of these men rely on their power to be successful.
Pyfer is nearly a decade younger and four inches taller. He'll enter with a two-inch reach edge. We've seen Alhassan struggle to defend takedowns in the past, so although that's typically not Pyfer's preferred method of fighting, I'm wondering if he'll mix it up here and take the path of least resistance.
The most likely scenario is Pyfer gets Alhassan out of there relatively easily, but I have no interest in paying to find out if that will indeed be the case. I'm much rather fork over the extra $100 and use Dawson in my lineup. The track record simply isn't there as of yet for me to be rolling with Joe at such an inflated price tag.
THE PICK: Pyfer
Welterweight
Alex Morono (23-8-0, 1NC) v. Joaquin Buckley (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Morono ($7,500), Buckley ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Morono (+145), Buckley (-175)
An extremely technical striker that has struggled to win the "big" fight over the course of his career, Morono has very quietly picked up five victories in his last six bouts. The one loss was to Santiago Ponzinibbio in a fight in which Morono was doing well before being knocked out. Now 33 years old, I don't expect Alex to suddenly threaten the better guys in the division, but he's valuable roster depth for a company that holds an event nearly every week
Buckley snapped a two-fight winning streak with a head kick knockout of the super-fragile Andre Fialho in May. It was Buckley's return to welterweight after nearly four years at middleweight. Buckley is huge for 170 pounds. As long as he has no issues with the scale, he should be fighting in the lower weight class, as his power is a legitimate difference-maker.
Buckley is the far more likely of the two to wrestle, but my guess is this turns into a back-and-forth, stand-up brawl. The technical edge is clearly on the side of Morono, while the power edge greatly favors Joaquin. I'd also give Morono the cardio edge if this somehow gets into the final round. I'm not so sure that's going to happen.
Alex has been knocked out three times in more than 30 career fights. He's been fairly durable, and that will have to continue if he plans on winning here.
I would take Buckley, all things being equal, but I think there's just enough meat on the bone to roll with Alex as an underdog. I expect some hairy moments, particularly early on, but Morono is a very experienced fighter, and I think he's a worthy underdog play in a fight that I feel is closer to a coin flip.
THE PICK: Morono
Bantamweight
Chris Gutierrez (19-4-2) v. Heili Alateng (16-8-2)
DK Salaries: Gutierrez ($7,400), Alateng (TBD)
Vegas Odds: Gutierrez (+160), Alateng (TBD)
THE PICK: TBD
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Drew Dober (26-12-0, 1NC) v. Rick Glenn (22-7-2)
DK Salaries: Dober ($9,500), Glenn ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Dober (-470), Glenn (+360)
THE PICK: Dober
Light Heavyweight
Philipe Lins (17-5-0) v. Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Lins ($7,900), Cutelaba ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Lins (+125), Cutelaba (-150)
THE PICK: Cutelaba
Featherweight
Alexander Hernandez (14-6-0) v. Bill Algeo (17-7-0)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($7,800), Algeo ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (+110), Algeo (-135)
THE PICK: Hernandez
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (15-7-0) v. Diana Belbita (15-7-0)
DK Salaries: Kowalkiewicz ($8,600), Belbita ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Kowalkiewicz (-160), Belbita (+130)
THE PICK: Kowalkiewicz
Bantamweight
Aori Qileng (24-10-0) v. Johnny Munoz (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Qileng ($8,200), Munoz ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Qileng (-110), Munoz (-110)
THE PICK: Qileng
Women's Strawweight
Vanessa Demopoulos (9-5-0) v. Kanako Murata (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Demopoulos ($7,300), Murata ($8.900)
Vegas Odds: Demopoulos (+280), Murata (-375)
THE PICK: Murata
Flyweight
Nate Maness (14-3-0) v. Mateus Mendonca (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Maness ($7,200), Mendonca ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Maness (+210), Mendonca (-275)
THE PICK: Mendonca
Women's Flyweight
Montana De La Rosa (12-8-1) v. JJ Aldrich (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: De La Rosa ($8,200), Aldrich ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: De La Rosa (-125), Aldrich (+105)
THE PICK: Aldrich
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 80 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
