This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada on Saturday, November 2 for UFC Edmonton. In the main event, former flyweight champ Brandon Moreno takes on Amir Albazi.
Below, I'll share my UFC Edmonton predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Caio Machado (8-3-1) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (15-7)
Caio Machado is likely fighting for his job at UFC Edmonton, as he's 0-2 in the UFC and is now dropping from heavyweight to light heavyweight. He will take on Brendson Ribeiro who's also 0-2 in the UFC.
Machado should have a size and strength advantage here, as he should be able to keep the fight standing. On the feet, Machado throws more volume, as he averages 6.07 significant strikes per minute while absorbs 2.73. Ribeiro, meanwhile, lands just 3.08 and absorbs 3.08.
I expect Machado to have more power here, and considering we have seen Ribeiro get knocked out plenty in his career, Machado should be able to get an early KO.
UFC Edmonton Bet: Caio Machado (-155)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (28-12, 1 NC) vs. Jhonata Diniz (8-0)
For my underdog at UFC Edmonton, I'm backing Derrick Lewis to get his hand raised Saturday.
Lewis is a great underdog bet, as he has one-punch KO power. He has shown time and time again he beats the unranked to lower-ranked heavyweights, but struggles against the top-ranked heavyweights.
Diniz is 2-0 in the UFC, but he beat Austen Lane and Karl Williams, and this is a massive step-up in competition. He is also a striker, so that plays right into Lewis' game, as he can swarm these up-and-comers and get a big KO win early.
I expect Lewis to come out strong and land a big shot to score a TKO win in the first round, as I was surprised to see him as the underdog.
UFC Edmonton Bet: Derrick Lewis (+142)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault (16-8, 1 NC) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (15-6)
Marc-Andre Barriault and Dustin Stoltzfus are both likely fighting for their jobs at UFC Edmonton.
However, this is a good spot for the Canadien in Barriault to get a stoppage win on home soil. Barriualt has legitimate power, as three of his five UFC wins have come by stoppage, while Stoltzfus's chin is an issue. Stoltzfus has been knocked out twice in five losses and has been submitted two more times.
Barriault should be able to keep the fight standing, where the Canadian lands 6.12 significant strikes per minute. I like Barriault to land something big and get a TKO win against Stoltszfus early. But, a club-and-sub is also possible, so we'll play it safe and take Barriault to win by finish.
UFC Edmonton Bet: Marc-Andre Barriault to win Inside the Distance (+175)
Weight Classes: Featherweight & Welterweight
Youssef Zalal (15-5-1) vs. Jack Shore (17-2)
Mike Malott (10-2-1) vs. Trevin Giles (16-6)
For my parlay at UFC Edmonton, I'm taking Youssef Zalal and Mike Malott to get their hands raised Saturday.
Zalal is taking on Jack Shore, and this is a good style matchup for him. Zalal is known for his pressure and has good grappling, so he should be able to stuff Shore's takedowns. On the feet, he is the better striker, as he absorbs just 1.73 significant strikes per minute. I expect Shore will have a hard time hitting him.
Shore really should be a bantamweight, as he isn't big enough or strong enough at 145lbs. Zalal should be able to land the better shots to win a clear-cut decision win here.
In the other leg, I like Malott to return to the win column and likely finish Trevin Giles. The book is out on Malott, as his cardio is a concern. Giles, however, has chin issues, and we have seen him get submitted three times in the UFC, while his other three losses are by KO.
Malott should be able to take Giles down and get either a ground-and-pound TKO win early or a submission win here.
UFC Edmonton Bet: Youssef Zalal & Mike Malott parlay (-110)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Edmonton card.
- Caio Machado (-155)
- Derrick Lewis (+142)
- Marc-Andre Barriault inside the distance (+175)
- Youssef Zalal & Mike Malott parlay (-110)
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