This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 1 for UFC Vegas 103. The main event sees Manel Kape taking on Asu Almabayev in a pivotal flyweight matchup.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 103 predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Montana De La Rosa (13-9-1) vs. Luana Carolina (11-4)
Montana De La Rosa opens up the UFC Vegas 103 main card against Luana Carolina, and I like Carolina to win as a small favorite.
De La Rosa is 1-3 in her last four, and her last win could have gone either way. Carolina, meanwhile, is on a three-fight winning streak and has been fighting much better as of late.
Carolina will be able to use her range to keep her distance and land the better shots. De La Rosa's striking defense leaves a lot to be desired, so look for Carolina to land more strikes and win a decision.
UFC Vegas 103 Bet: Luana Carolina (-148)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Cody Brundage (10-6) vs Julian Marquez (9-5)
For my underdog pick at UFC Vegas 103, I'm taking Cody Brundage to beat Julian Marquez in the co-main event.
Brundage vs Marquez is likely a loser-leaves-town matchup, as whoever comes up short will likely be released. I thought this fight would be a pick'em, so to get Brundage as an underdog is the way to go.
Marquez has some durability concerns, while Brundage will have the wrestling advantage. I like Brundage to be able to wrestle Marquez and either get a TKO with ground strikes or a clear-cut decision. Marquez's takedown defense is just 53 percent, and that will be the difference here.
UFC Vegas 103 Bet: Cody Brundage (+114)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (17-5) vs Esteban Ribovics (14-1)
For my prop at UFC Vegas 103, I'm backing Nasrat Haqparast and Esteban Ribovics to go the distance.
Haqparast is an extremely tough out and also isn't much of a finisher, while Ribovics is also durable. His last fight proved he can go three hard rounds.
This should mostly be a kickboxing fight, and while I do lean Ribovics to get the win, the safer play is just to take the fight to go the distance. Haqparast will be able to withstand his shots like Zellhuber did and bring this fight to the scorecards.
UFC Vegas 103 Bet: Nasrat Haqparast-Esteban Ribovics FGTD (-185)
Weight Classes: Bantamweight & Flyweight
John Castaneda (21-7) vs Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6)
Manel Kape (20-7) vs Asu Almabayev (21-2)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 103, I'm taking John Castaneda and Manel Kape to get their hands raised.
Castaneda is set to take on Douglas Silva de Andrade, and I like this style matchup for him. Silva de Andrade is a very low-output fighter with power like Miles Johns, who Castaneda was able to pressure and overwhelm, which he told me the plan is to do the same here. I like Castaneda to be the more aggressive fighter and land the better shots to win a decision, or possibly a late finish if Silva de Andrade fades.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Manel Kape to beat Asu Almabayev in the main event. Almabayev is undefeated in the UFC, but this is a massive step-up in competition. Almabayev hasn't been finishing the lesser competition, which is what you would want to see.
Kape should be able to keep this fight standing and land the better shots and could even finish Almabayev late. He was knocked out on the regional scene to Tagir Ulanbekov, and Kape is a much more dangerous striker. Overall, I don't think this fight will be all that close, and Kape will cruise to a lopsided win.
UFC Vegas 103 Bet: John Castaneda & Manel Kape parlay (-104)
UFC Vegas 103 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 103 bets:
- Luana Carolina (-148)
- Cody Brundage (+114)
- Nasrat Haqparast & Esteban Ribovics goes the distance (-185)
- John Castaneda & Manel Kape parlay (-104)
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