Heavyweights collide Saturday in Abu Dhabi, where Tom Aspinall makes his first title defense as the undisputed champion, entering as a heavy favorite. In the co-main event, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba clash for the vacant strawweight belt.
As a reminder, the following selections are purely picks. If you're looking for betting or fantasy-specific breakdowns of these fights, check out the following articles on RotoWire:
UFC 321 DraftKings Picks
UFC 321 Betting Picks
UFC 321 Fight Breakdowns
UFC 321 Multi-Site DFS Preview
We also have a MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer to try if you're looking to try out different combinations of fighters or generate multiple lineups, plus UFC 321 odds from every major sportsbook.
MMA Expert Picks & Predictions: UFC 321 Pay-Per-View Card
| MATCHUP | WEIGHT CLASS | JON | JAKE | CHRIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (C) Tom Aspinall (-380) vs. Ciryl Gane (+300) | Heavyweight | Aspinall | Aspinall | Aspinall |
| Mackenzie Dern (-166) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+140) | Women's | Dern | Jandiroba | Jandiroba |
| Umar Nurmagomedov (-535) vs. Mario Bautista (+400) | Bantamweight | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov |
| Alexander Volkov (+180) vs. Jailton Almeida (-218) | Heavyweight | Volkov | Vokov | Volkov |
| Aleksandar Rakic (-102) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-118) | Light | Murzakanov | Murzakanov | Murzakanov |
| UFC 321 RECORD | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2025 RECORD | 28-20 | 28-20 | 19-29 | |
| 2025 PERCENTAGE | .583 | .583 | .396 | |
| 2024 RECORD | 45-19 | 41-23 | 39-25 | |
| 2024 PERCENTAGE | .703 | .641 | .610 | |
| 2023 RECORD | 42-25 | 44-23 | 35-32 | |
| 2023 PERCENTAGE | .627 | .657 | .522 | |
| 2022 RECORD | 34-27 | 40-21 | 25-26 | |
| 2022 PERCENTAGE | .557 | .656 | .490 | |
| 2021 RECORD | 35-28 | 42-21 | 37-26 | |
| 2021 PERCENTAGE | .556 | .667 | .586 | |
| 2020 RECORD | 36-18 | 34-20 | 28-26 | |
| 2020 PERCENTAGE | .667 | .630 | .519 | |
| 2019 RECORD | 39-19 | 35-23 | 32-26 | |
| 2019 PERCENTAGE | .672 | .603 | .552 | |
| ALL-TIME | 354-218 | 361-211 | 284-234 | |
| ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE | .619 | .631 | .548 |
MATCHUP | WEIGHT | JOE | COLE | DRAKE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (C) Tom Aspinall (-380) vs. Ciryl Gane (+300) | Heavyweight | Aspinall | Aspinall | Aspinall |
| Mackenzie Dern (-166) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+140) | Women's | Jandiroba | Dern | Dern |
| Umar Nurmagomedov (-535) vs. Mario Bautista (+400) | Bantamweight | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov |
| Alexander Volkov (+180) vs. Jailton Almeida (-218) | Heavyweight | Volkov | Almeida | Almeida |
| Aleksandar Rakic (-102) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-118) | Light | Rakic | Murzakanov | Murzakanov |
| UFC 321 RECORD | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2025 RECORD | 27-21 | 29-19 | 31-17 | |
| 2025 PERCENTAGE | .563 | .604 | .646 | |
| 2024 RECORD | 40-24 | 40-24 | 43-21 | |
| 2024 PERCENTAGE | .625 | .625 | .672 | |
| 2023 RECORD | 41-26 | 44-23 | 36-31 | |
| 2023 PERCENTAGE | .612 | .657 | .537 | |
| 2022 RECORD | 38-23 | 39-22 | 39-22 | |
| 2022 PERCENTAGE | .623 | .639 | .639 | |
| 2021 RECORD | 38-25 | 43-21 | 17-14 | |
| 2021 PERCENTAGE | .603 | .672 | .548 | |
| 2020 RECORD | 36-18 | N/A | N/A | |
| 2020 PERCENTAGE | .667 | N/A | N/A | |
| 2019 RECORD | 34-24 | N/A | N/A | |
| 2019 PERCENTAGE | .586 | N/A | N/A | |
| ALL-TIME | 291-180 | 192-107 | 166-105 | |
| ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE | .618 | .642 | .613 |
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THE PICKERS
Jon Litterine: RotoWire lead MMA beat writer and scribe for our weekly DrafKings preview. Lead analyst on the RotoWire MMA Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @JonLitterine.
Jake Letarski: RotoWire.com Operations Manager, plus MMA and NCAA Hoops Senior Editor. Host on the RotoWire MMA Podcast and guest on the RotoWire Fantasy Football Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @RotoJake.
Chris Olson: Contributor at RotoWire to "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," as well as The MMA Mashup, DFS Baseball, a MMA gambling columnist and fight recaps. Follow him on Twitter at @RealChrisOlson.
Joe "SunTszu": Known more commonly by his Twitter handle @SunTszu, Joe is a Hedge Fund Executive by day and high-volume DFS player by night. He is a 2x "Bracket Challenge" & "Gotham qualifier. You can also find him as one of the original contributors of "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," a DFS-centric video breakdown. He is also a co-creator of the "Creating Alpha in DFS" podcast.
Cole Shelton: Cole Shelton is a full-time sports writer focusing on MMA. His work has appeared on BJPenn.com, CBC Sports, Sports Betting Dime and Blue Jays Nation. He currently pens the MMA Best Bets column on RotoWire. Follow him on Twitter at @ColeShelton91.
Drake Burden: Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities. Follow him on Twitter at @DBurdz.
RotoWire has the latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event, plus compares markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.
