Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a certified banger of a fight card, topped off with two title bouts. We'll take a look at each matchup on the 13-fight slate, including a sizeable underdog looking to upset a knockout artist, and an aspiring title contender who will throw his name back into the ring with a victory. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Tom Aspinall ($9,200)
There are conversations to have regarding Aspinall's lack of defense, as Ciryl Gane is a slick combination puncher. However, "Bon Gamin" has shown little ability to stop takedowns, as evidenced by his 43 percent defense rate. As long as the champion gets to his wrestling early, he should find success similar to Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou.
Jaqueline Amorim ($9,500)
Amorim is a rare consistent finisher at strawweight, having ended her last four bouts (including three submissions) inside the distance. Mizuki Inoue carries a stout 85 percent takedown defense rate, but it's worth noting that she stuffed 9 of 10 against Hannah Goldy, a brawler who went 1-5 before being released from the organization. I doubt she will be able to keep her feet against a different class of wrestler.
Valter Walker ($9,100)
Debutante Louie Sutherland fights at such a measured pace that Walker should be able to completely control where this fight takes place. The Brazilian has relied on the fact that heavyweights aren't very athletic to notch back-to-back heel hook submissions, and it would hardly be surprising if he were able to lock up another one here.
Azat Maksum ($9,200)
Maksum has had a tough draw since entering the UFC as a 14-0 fighter, but I believe that he will show his promise against Mitch Raposo, who tends to stand flat-footed and launch big shots. He will also cede control of the cage, which should allow Maksum to use all of his tools and pick up a comprehensive victory.
Nathaniel Wood ($7,700)
Jose Miguel Delgado has looked like a powerhouse in his two UFC appearances, but I worry that he may be too reliant on big, singular moments. By contrast, Wood will bring creative offense from the opening bell, while making his opponents pay when they miss. Delgado likes to hang back and let fight-ending scenarios materialize, but he is unlikely to find one against a striker as polished as Wood.
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,600)
Nurmagomedov was a few sequences away from ousting a seemingly unbeatable champion in Merab Dvalishvili, which makes most other opponents seem like light work in comparison. Mario Bautista is a well-rounded fighter, but it's hard to imagine how he'll react if he can't use his wrestling as a safety valve. When we consider that Umar may also be the more athletic fighter in the cage, this bout begins to look like a stepping stone back to a title shot.
Virna Jandiroba ($7,600)
Jandiroba and Dern were in very different places when the two fought in 2020, as the former was ascending, while "Carcara" was still finding her footing in the organization. The present day finds those roles reversed, as Virna has won her last five fights, while a disjointed striking game and a lack of traditional wrestling have resulted in inconsistent results for Dern. Jandiroba should have a chance to show off her improved striking here, resulting in a victory, and a chance for those who followed my pick of her to be champion at the end of 2025 to cash their tickets.
Jun Yong Park ($7,200)
It can be unfair to judge a fighter based on their strength of schedule, but it has to be said that Ikram Aliskerov doesn't have a win over a fighter who is currently in the organization, and his knockout loss to Robert Whittaker looks worse with each passing fight. Park is a hard-nosed boxer who will smother his opponent and look to take the back. The constant pressure should prevent Aliskerov from launching explosive strikes and allow Park to control the action.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks
Chris Barnett OVER 26.5 Significant Strikes and Nasrat Haqparast OVER 73.5 Significant Strikes
Barnett's physique and stature have made him a bit of a meme as a heavyweight, but I'll take his athleticism and activity over Hamdy Abdelwahab, who fights at a slow pace even before running out of gas, and doesn't use his wrestling enough for me to consider that a major factor. I expect that the slower pace forced by Abdelwahab will allow "Beast Boy" to clear this total.
Haqparast used his movement and slick out-fighting to land 135 significant strikes against Esteban Ribovics, and he should do well with a similar strategy against a slower fighter in Quillan Salkilld. The 25-year-old will have a tough task chasing down Haqparast, who comes into this fight with a robust 84 percent takedown defense rate.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Alexander Volkov Wins via KO/TKO (+325)
Jailton Almeida has played the bulldozer in all of his UFC wins so far, but I'm betting a veteran like Volkov will be able to weather the storm. It's not often you see a fighter as big as the Brazilian give up four inches of height, but "Drago" will force his opponent to slow down and work to get on the inside. Volkov has been vulnerable to takedowns in the past, but his ability to get back to his feet should be enough to drain Almeida's cardio.
Azamat Murzakanov wins via KO/TKO (+200)
I believe Murzakanov will be a title contender in short order. "The Professional" is athletic, throws in combination, and is dangerous whether backing up or going forward. He will face sizeable disadvantages in height and reach against Aleksandar Rakic, but Murzakanov should have the footwork necessary to get on the inside and hand Rakic his third KO/TKO loss in four fights.
L'udovit Klein Wins via KO/TKO (+310)
Klein's speed and precise striking should pay immediate dividends against Mateusz Rebecki, who plods forward, throwing hard and looking for takedowns. We have already seen "Chinczyk" take more damage in his last few fights than most fighters take in their entire careers. This should make it even harder to stand up to the offense of someone like Klein.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 321 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
