Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 322
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 322 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 317-139-1 ~ Dog Picks 48-36-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Chepe Mariscal +115
Bet of the Week Record: 23-14-1 +1968
DFS Lock of the Week: Makhachev - 28-7
Fanduel Captain: Makhachev/Saint Denis
Jack Della Maddalena (18-2-0) v. Islam Makhachev (27-1-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18-2 (12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Elite boxer with precise timing, surgical body work, and calmness under pressure
- Dangerous in the pocket but still untested against elite-level wrestlers of Makhachev's caliber
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 27-1 (5 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Arguably the most complete lightweight on the planet: elite wrestling, smothering control, and improving striking
- Master of positional dominance; breaks opponents mentally and physically once grounded
DFS Perspective: Makhachev is the preferred DFS play and likely one of the safest on the slate. His takedown chains, control time and submission potential give him elite scoring upside. Della Maddalena's boxing is sharp, but Makhachev's pressure and grappling edge should completely neutralize him. Expect classic Makhachev dominance: multiple takedowns, extended control and likely a submission finish or late TKO for massive DFS value.
UFC 322 Pick: Makhachev
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Valentina Shevchenko (25-4-1) v. Zhang Weili (26-3-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 25-4-1 (8 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Former dominant champion known for precision striking, elite countering, and calculated pacing
- Still technically brilliant, but has shown signs of slowing and less control in prolonged grappling exchanges
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 26-3 (11 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Explosive and incredibly well-rounded, pairing fast, powerful striking with relentless wrestling and top pressure
- Constantly evolving—her cardio, strength, and ground control have become major weapons in title-level fights
DFS Perspective: Weili is the preferred DFS side. Her explosiveness, strength and grappling improvements give her multiple paths to victory, especially if she can consistently force takedowns and maintain control. Shevchenko's technical countering keeps her live for a decision or counter KO, but Weili's pace, power and activity should carry the day. Expect a competitive start before Weili's pressure and physicality take over for a strong DFS scoring performance.
UFC 322 Pick: Weili
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Sean Brady (18-1-0) v. Michael Morales (18-0-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-1 (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Physically strong grappler with suffocating top control and slick submissions
- Excellent defensive awareness, but striking volume and comfort under pressure remain question marks
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-0 (13 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Explosive striker with long reach, sharp timing, and elite athleticism for the division
- Patient yet punishing; manages range well and carries serious finishing power into later rounds
DFS Perspective: Morales is the preferred DFS play. His striking edge, speed and range management should neutralize Brady's wrestling attempts and allow him to dictate the pace. Brady's control-heavy grappling gives him GPP value if he chains takedowns early, but Morales's footwork and accuracy make him dangerous every second the fight stays standing. Expect Morales to stuff shots, find his rhythm and score well through striking volume or a potential knockout finish.
UFC 322 Pick: Morales
Leon Edwards (22-5-0) v. Carlos Prates (22-7-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 22-5 (7 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Technically elite striker with precise counters, excellent range management, and underrated defensive grappling
- Patient to a fault at times, relying on control and timing rather than consistent volume
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 22-7 (17 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Dangerous Muay Thai pressure fighter with heavy kicks, sharp elbows, and strong clinch work
- Thrives when pushing pace and forcing opponents onto the back foot, but can struggle if slowed down or forced to counter
DFS Perspective: Prates is the preferred DFS play. His aggression, power and forward pressure give him a clear path to disrupt Edwards' rhythm and outwork him over time. Edwards' accuracy and championship composure make him a live favorite for a decision win, but his low pace limits his DFS ceiling. If Prates stays active and keeps Edwards on defense, he offers excellent GPP leverage and potential for a breakout DFS score.
UFC 322 Pick: Prates
Beniel Dariush (23-6-1) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (15-3-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 23-6-1 (5 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Veteran grappler with excellent scrambles, powerful left hand, and deep experience against elite competition
- Still durable and dangerous but slowing slightly; can be overwhelmed by faster, more explosive fighters
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-3 (4 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Relentless pressure fighter with elite finishing instincts and suffocating pace
- Mixes powerful combinations with well-timed level changes; thrives in chaos and rarely gives opponents breathing room
DFS Perspective: Saint Denis is the preferred DFS play and one of the best finish threats on the slate. His relentless forward pressure, cardio, and killer instinct make him a nightmare matchup for an aging Dariush. Dariush's grappling gives him contrarian appeal in GPPs, but Saint Denis' volume and violence should produce a finish, most likely inside two rounds. Expect BSD to overwhelm with pressure and secure another emphatic statement win.
UFC 322 Pick: Saint-Denis
Bo Nickal (7-1-0) v. Rodolfo Vieira (11-3-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-1 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 1 decision)
- World-class wrestler with elite athleticism and rapidly improving striking
- Exceptional timing on entries and transition speed; dominant once he establishes top control
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-3 (1 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 1 decision)
- Multiple-time BJJ world champion with suffocating top game and dangerous arm-triangle setups
- Strong grappler but vulnerable to pressure and pace; limited striking and gas tank issues persist
DFS Perspective: Nickal is the preferred DFS play. His explosive wrestling and ground control should neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu threats while giving him dominant positional scoring opportunities. Vieira's only path is catching a submission in transition, but Nickal's control and awareness make that unlikely. Expect Nickal to dictate the fight early, secure takedowns at will and find a finish through ground-and-pound or submission for elite DFS value.
UFC 322 Pick: Nickal
Roman Kopylov (14-4-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (17-6-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14-4 (12 KO/TKO, 2 decision)
- Crisp, technical striker with underrated wrestling and strong takedown defense
- Excellent timing, composure, and counter-punching; mixes body attacks beautifully to break rhythm
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6 (10 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Big, powerful middleweight with dangerous top control and heavy ground-and-pound
- Strong grappler with size advantage, but hittable and often leaves his chin exposed during entries
DFS Perspective: Kopylov is the preferred DFS side. His improved wrestling and defensive awareness should neutralize Rodrigues' grappling advantage while allowing him to dictate the striking exchanges. Rodrigues' size and submission upside keep him GPP-relevant, but Kopylov's precision, defense and ability to stuff takedowns make him the sharper play. Expect Kopylov to control range, punish Rodrigues' defensive lapses and find another highlight-reel finish.
UFC 322 Pick: Kopylov
Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0) v. Tracy Cortez (12-2-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-2 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Elite-level grappler with suffocating top control and relentless chain wrestling
- Continues to sharpen her striking; composed under fire and excels in transitions and scrambles
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-2 (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 10 decisions)
- Strong, physical wrestler who uses top pressure and positional awareness to control fights
- Tough and durable, but tends to rely too heavily on wrestling without offering submission threat or damage
DFS Perspective: Blanchfield is the preferred DFS play. Her higher pace, submission threat and more complete game give her multiple scoring avenues compared to Cortez's control-based approach. Cortez's strength and balance could make early exchanges competitive, but Blanchfield's relentlessness and ability to chain attacks should take over. Expect heavy control time, potential submission attempts and a strong DFS floor with high-ceiling upside for Blanchfield.
UFC 322 Pick: Blanchfield
Malcolm Wellmaker (10-0-0) v. Cody Haddon (8-1-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-0 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Powerful striker with fast hands, sharp combinations, and legitimate one-punch knockout power
- Aggressive and confident in the pocket; excellent at forcing brawls where he thrives
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Clean, composed technician who mixes striking and grappling fluidly
- Strong defensively but can be outworked if drawn into chaotic stand-up exchanges
DFS Perspective: Wellmaker is the preferred DFS play. His power, forward pressure, and ability to dictate range give him clear knockout potential. Haddon's balance and ground game offer a path to control points, but Wellmaker's aggression and finishing instincts make him the higher-ceiling GPP option. Expect Wellmaker to keep it standing, press the action and find another highlight-reel KO for a strong DFS return.
UFC 322 Pick: Wellmaker
Gerald Meerschaert (37-20-0) v. Kyle Daukaus (16-4-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 37-20 (6 KO/TKO, 29 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Veteran submission specialist with dangerous front chokes and sneaky setups in scrambles
- Durable and experienced, but slowing down and vulnerable to younger, faster opponents on the feet
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16-4 (2 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Tall, well-rounded grappler who uses range well and chains takedowns into positional control
- Looked great in his re-entry to the UFC
DFS Perspective: Daukaus is the preferred DFS side. His youth, grappling control and ability to dictate pace make him the safer play. Meerschaert's submission danger always creates GPP intrigue, but Daukaus' positional awareness should limit mistakes. Expect Daukaus to stay smart, rack up control time and grind out a decision with a solid DFS floor.
UFC 322 Pick: Daukaus
Chepe Mariscal (18-6-0) v. Pat Sabatini (20-5-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-6 (7 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Relentless brawler with explosive power and excellent durability
- Thrives in chaos, pushing an unforgiving pace with forward pressure and heavy combinations
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-5 (1 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Elite grappler with suffocating top control and strong positional awareness
- Methodical, patient, and dangerous once he gets the fight to the mat, though hittable early
DFS Perspective: Mariscal is the preferred DFS side. His volume, pace and knockout power create multiple scoring avenues, especially if he can stuff early takedowns. Sabatini's grappling gives him a clear control path for GPP contrarian builds, but Mariscal's durability and aggression make him more likely to dictate the fight's flow. Expect fireworks early: Mariscal's pressure could break Sabatini's rhythm and lead to a statement finish.
UFC 322 Pick: Mariscal
Angela Hill (18-15-0) v. Fatima Kline (8-1-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-15 (5 KO/TKO,, 1 submission, 12 decisions)
- Veteran striker with crisp Muay Thai technique and excellent cardio
- Uses constant movement and volume striking to outpoint opponents but struggles against strong grapplers
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Promising prospect with slick grappling and strong positional awareness on the mat
- Developing striking but excels at timing entries and dominating through top control and pressure
DFS Perspective: Kline is the preferred DFS play. Her superior grappling and control game gives her multiple scoring paths, especially against Hill, who has historically struggled with takedown defense. Hill's volume could make her competitive in striking exchanges, but Kline's ability to ground the fight and hunt submissions provides the higher ceiling. Expect Kline to weather Hill's output, secure takedowns and control large portions of the fight for strong DFS scoring.
UFC 322 Pick: Kline
Baisangur Susurkaev (10-0-0) v. Eric McConico (10-3-1)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-0 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision)
- High-level wrestler with sharp positional awareness and heavy ground control
- Composed for his experience level, blending clean striking entries into dominant takedown sequences
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-3-1 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Long, athletic striker with heavy kicks and solid clinch offense
- Dangerous early, but still developing defensive grappling and consistency on the mat
DFS Perspective: Susurkaev is the preferred DFS play. His wrestling pressure and control time should translate into steady scoring with potential for a finish if he finds top position early. McConico's powerful striking makes him a live GPP flier if he can keep it standing, but Susurkaev's pace and grappling advantage give him the higher floor and ceiling. Expect him to dictate the fight, dominate the scrambles and possibly secure another knockout win.
UFC 322 Pick: Susurkaev
Viacheslav Borshchev (8-6-1) v. Matheus Camilo (9-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-6-1 (6 KO/TKO, 2 decision)
- Precise, high-level kickboxer with brutal body shots and elite timing in exchanges
- Excellent distance management and power combinations, though defensive grappling remains his weak point
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-3 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Well-rounded finisher with explosive entries and smooth transitions between striking and grappling
- Strong submission instincts, especially in scrambles, but can be hittable during forward pressure
DFS Perspective: Borshchev is the preferred DFS play. His technical striking, volume and finishing power give him a clear path to victory if he keeps the fight upright. Camilo's grappling gives him GPP appeal, but Borshchev's takedown defense has been improving, and his precision striking could expose Camilo's defensive gaps. Expect Borshchev to control range, land the cleaner shots and possibly find another knockout for a strong DFS score.
UFC 322 Pick: Borshchev
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
