Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
The UFC heads to Madison Square Garden for a Pay-Per-View card that promises fireworks from top to bottom. We'll take a look at every bout across three platforms, including a submission grappler who has shown some signs of rounding out his game, and a former flyweight champion looking to become a GOAT. Our betting lines are brought to us by the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Islam Makhachev ($9,200)
Makhachev has always been a big lightweight, so I don't expect him to sacrifice strength in his move up to the welterweight division. What should be noticeable, however, is his agility, as he can explode into takedowns in a way Jack Della Maddalena has almost certainly never seen before. We know the reigning champion is as tricky as he is lethal from boxing range, but he gets backed to the cage often enough that Makhachev should be able to get this fight where he wants it.
Zhang Weili ($8,000)
Valentina Shevchenko has the counter striking to potentially frustrate someone like Weili, who can be undisciplined in her approach. I simply can't get past the speed difference here, as the former strawweight champion will be light on her feet from the opening bell, and should be able to score with leg kicks and quick strikes against the flat-footed flyweight queen at will. This pick will end up looking silly if Shevchenko can simply outwrestle Weili, but many years have passed since the latter's battles with Rose Namajunas, and we saw her expertly defend takedowns and outscramble a very big strawweight in Tatiana Suarez.
Beneil Dariush ($7,400)
It wasn't clear what Dariush had left in the tank following an absence of nearly two years, but the veteran showed Renato Moicano that he is still one of the best scramblers in the division, as he was easily able to beat the BJJ black belt to positions and control ground exchanges. Benoit Saint-Denis comes out so hot in the opening minute that it would hardly be surprising if he trucks the 36-year-old, knocking him out before he can find his bearings. If Dariush can withstand the initial onslaught, though, he may just make this look easy as the far superior grappler.
Pat Sabatini ($8,300)
Sabatini and Jose Mariscal have similar styles, as both look to use their grappling to take fights over. The difference is that Mariscal is willing to stand at range and let a fight develop, whereas Sabatini will spam takedown attempts until one sticks. Things could get dangerous if Mariscal is able to defend, but we have seen him willing to engage his opponent defensively in the past, and I can't pick Sabatini to lose the exact kind of fight he wants.
Gregory Rodrigues ($8,800)
Roman Kopylov will be the superior kickboxer here, but he has been so hittable that I expect him to struggle with the aggressiveness of "Robocop." Add a three-inch height disadvantage, and it becomes hard to see how Kopylov gets on the inside here. I also question how well his 90 percent takedown defense rate will hold up against a strong and increasingly willing wrestler like Rodrigues.
Matheus Camilo ($8,700)
Camilo looked to run out of gas after attempting a submission against Gabriel Green, but there was a lot to like about the Brazilian before his tapout loss in Round 2 of that fight. Specifically, aggression, quick hands, and crafty trips against the fence. This should be more than enough against Slava Borshchev, who sports just a 42 percent takedown defense rate and has an all-offense style that leaves him open to being tagged in return.
Malcolm Wellmaker ($8,400)
Wellmaker welcomes a late replacement to the Octagon, as Ethyn Ewing will step in fresh off winning the A1C interim bantamweight championship last week. While he has power and fast hands, he is more in line with the kind of opponents Wellmaker has knocked out previously, as his indiscriminate pressure should allow Wellmaker to slide back and counter effectively. Ewing is a fighter who could do well in the right matchup, but the difference in athleticism should be evident here.
Erin Blanchfield ($9,000)
As a wrestler who can be outwrestled, I'm struggling to see a path to victory for Tracy Cortez. We have seen her turn up the volume to overwhelm opponents, but Blanchfield boasts a 5.24 strikes landed per minute average and should be the physically stronger fighter. This puts Blanchfield in a strong position in both GPP and cash tournaments.
Rodolfo Vieira ($7,100)
Bo Nickal's resume against credentialed grapplers is uninspiring to say the least. In two UFC fights against BJJ blackbelts Paul Craig and Reinier de Ridder, the 29-year-old is 1-1 with a lackluster decision victory and a brutal knockout loss. He now faces a highly decorated jujitsu fighter who showed improved striking and cardio in his victory over Tresean Gore. By contrast, we have never seen any other version of Nickal than a skilled wrestler who is out of ideas if he cannot convincingly win on the ground. While big jumps in skill are possible for young fighters, shelling out $9,100 for Nickal is paying a premium for branding until we see otherwise.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Angela Hill OVER 57.5 Significant Strikes, and Michael Morales UNDER 41.5 Significant Strikes
This line seems like a gift for Hill, as she has exceeded this strike total in seven of her last eight fights. "Overkill" has also drastically improved her takedown defense over the years, resulting in a solid 74 percent overall defense rate. Fatima Kline will swing in the pocket if she has to, and Hill has never been knocked out in 33 professional fights.
If Sean Brady is unable to navigate a six-inch reach disadvantage by forcing his grappling game, he will likely be knocked out by Morales. This dynamic lends itself to a low strike total, as the fight will either be fought in close or over before Morales can reach this mark.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Kyle Daukaus wins via KO/TKO (+195)
I have always been a fan of fighters like Gerald Meerschaert who have made successful careers out of limited skill sets. Unfortunately, "GM3" looked particularly slow and stilted in his most recent KO/TKO loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk, with takedown attempts that were telegraphed and easily defended. Daukaus's resurgence in MMA has been marked by aggression and improved striking, and Meerschaert has always been someone who needs to work his way into a fight.
Baisangur Susurkaev Wins via Submission (+650)
By his own admission, Susurkaev had a bad performance in his UFC debut against short-notice replacement Eric Nolan. While he did eventually submit Nolan in Round 2, the Russian fighter took far too many chances standing, resulting in him being rocked at the end of the first frame. I expect Susurkaev to take the path of least resistance against Eric McConico. The 35-year-old was taken down three times by Cody Brundage, and he shouldn't be able to survive on the ground against a solid submission grappler.
Carlos Prates Wins via KO/TKO (+170)
The fact that Edwards has never been knocked out before may cause some to balk at this price, but "Rocky" has been less active than ever in recent fights, allowing his opponent to completely dictate action. This is a death sentence against Prates, who will pour offense on with devastating power. Prates is not the kind of fighter who allows an opponent to warm up in the cage, and I expect the Brazilian will land the decisive blow before Edwards can get much going.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 322 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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