Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Shanghai: Walker vs Zhang
The UFC heads to Shanghai for an intriguing fight card full of hungry up-and-comers. We'll break down each bout across three platforms, including a flyweight looking to pull off an upset, and a grappler trying to make the most of his second chance in the organization. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Aljamain Sterling ($9,000)
While I would never say a fighter is without a way to win, I'm struggling to find a certain path for Brian Ortega here. Sterling has proven himself to be one of the best grapplers in the sport, and "T-City" often uses his grappling as an escape hatch after being bested on the feet. Though his striking is far from perfect, Sterling can use his lanky frame and long reach to surprise opponents.
Gauge Young ($8,200)
Young came up empty in his UFC debut, but I think "Gee Money" has a lot to offer the lightweight division. The 25-year-old is fast, can put combinations together, and can throw in a bit of wrestling for good measure. Hayisaer Maheshate is a solid kickboxer who can be aggressive in spots, but he is too willing to let his opponent dictate range. This should spell trouble against a fighter as aggressive as Young.
Charles Johnson ($7,400)
Backing Johnson as an underdog has paid off more often than not, with "InnerG" notching three of his four wins at $7,600 or cheaper. This is partially due to improved takedown defense, which allows him to utilize slick striking, whether moving forward or backward. Lone'er Kavanagh is a powerful striker who uses movement well, but he will allow himself to be pressured and controlled by willful opponents, and Johnson has never been knocked out in 24 professional fights.
Rong Zhu ($9,100)
Austin Hubbard can do a bit of everything in the cage, but is too inconsistent and doesn't hit hard enough to compete with the better athletes in the division. Zhu should have a strength and power advantage in this one, forcing Hubbard to make up too much ground to gain any real momentum.
Long Xiao ($7,900)
Xiao was my favorite prospect to come from the Singapore Road to UFC Event in 2023, showcasing powerful striking, athleticism, and excellent takedown defense. The latter skill should help him tremendously against Su Young You, who will cede ground to his opponent and look for reactive takedowns. You is strong and agile, but I expect Xiao to stay on his feet en route to a comprehensive decision victory.
Kyle Daukaus ($7,000)
I will state outright that my play here has more to do with a distrust of Michel Pereira than an overwhelming confidence in Daukaus. Still, the Brazilian fighter's success at middleweight has relied almost entirely on whether he can outgrapple his opponents. This should not be the case with Daukaus, who wants nothing more than to get the fight to the ground and work his BJJ. While it's worth noting that Daukaus took this fight on just two weeks' notice, he has a good chance to grind Pereira down if he can avoid being knocked out early.
Uran Satybaldiev ($8,700)
It's hard to catalog all the ways Diyar Nurgozhay failed to live up to expectations in his UFC debut. After missing weight by 4.5 pounds, the Kazakh fighter seemingly couldn't get out of the way of strikes from Brendson Ribeiro, who later tapped the then-undefeated prospect after getting a reversal from bottom position. On the flipside, Satybaldiev put together a respectable performance in his late-replacement debut at heavyweight against Martin Buday, showing crisp striking and nice agility. Satybaldiev is the deserving favorite here, as he should have an athletic advantage against Nurgozhay.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC plays to Consider on PrizePicks
Westin Wilson UNDER 16.5 Significant Strikes, Kiefer Crosbie OVER 16.5 Significant Strikes, and Johnny Walker OVER 14.5 Significant Strikes
Westin will look to march across the cage and force grappling exchanges, and Yi Zha is a powerful striker who is content to counter punch. This should ensure that strikes are at a minimum here, as whatever happens will almost certainly happen quickly.
Crosbie's inability to stop a takedown or fight on the ground has led to two quick losses, but "BDK" has shown himself to be a fairly polished striker from range. While the lack of takedown defense will remain a concern, Taiyilake Nueraji isn't much of a wrestler, which should ensure that we see some exchanges early.
Zhang Mingyang has been a wrecking ball in the Octagon, finishing every fight by KO/TKO in Round 1. I have to assume he's never fought someone like Walker, against whom he will surrender four inches of height and seven inches of reach. The Brazilian has opted for a much more in-and-out style since moving to SBG Ireland, so it wouldn't surprise me if he hung around long enough to clear this total.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Sergei Pavlovich Wins via KO/TKO (+110)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta has worked his way into the Top 10 at heavyweight by being hard to hurt, having good takedown defense, and throwing a crisp overhand right. It's going to take more than that to beat Pavlovich, who has a combination of power and speed that is rare for the big boys. While it's true that "Salsa Boy" has never been knocked out, I would argue he has never faced anyone close to as dangerous as Pavlovich, who isn't that far removed from title contention.
Kevin Borjas Wins via KO/TKO (+575)
Early losses to Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa got Borjas' career off on the wrong foot, but "El Gallo Negro" showed all of his skills in a win over top prospect Ronaldo Rodriguez, using his fast hands, power, and footwork to secure a dominant decision. Su Mudaerji is a long flyweight who always looks for the finish, but he won't be able to match Borjas for speed or craft. As long as he can fade the big shot, the Peruvian fighter has a real shot to cash a big ticket.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Shanghai this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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