Würth 400 Preview: Return to Mid-Size Ovals

With the crumpled cars and banged up egos of Talladega now in our rearview mirror this week the Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for a return to intermediate ovals. This is potentially good news for championship contenders William Byron and Kyle Larson. Both have wins already in this young season and both are looking to stay on a roll in Fort Worth. Considering that both Byron and Larson have won at Texas since the 2021 season, either of the duo should have a slugger's chance of winning and capturing another victory this season. Chevrolet drivers have won the last four races at Texas Motor Speedway so control of this oval is directly in the middle of the bowtie camp.   

Another driver worth keeping an eye on this Sunday is Denny Hamlin. He's won twice in the last few weeks at both Martinsville and Darlington and he's more than capable of putting Toyota back in victory lane at TMS. The three-time Texas winner has been a major threat on intermediate ovals in recent seasons, and he is the last active Toyota driver to have pulled into victory lane at Fort Worth. Another major threat for victory lane this Sunday afternoon comes in the form of Tyler Reddick and his No. 45 Toyota team. He is a one-time Texas winner (2022) and has led over 140 laps in his last three Texas starts. Reddick finished inside the Top 5 recently at Darlington and inside the Top 10 at Homestead and clearly has the intermediate ovals pegged. With Reddick, Hamlin, Byron and Larson squarely in the spotlight this week, it looks like Sunday's contest could be a big shootout between Chevrolet and Toyota.        

For the second straight season we're racing at Texas Motor Speedway in the spring. This track has had its dates shuffled around for a while and it's had an unsettled spot in the schedule for the last few seasons. There are some surprises to be expected due to this uncertainty. However, TMS is the same intermediate oval that NASCAR has competed on for 27 years. While Texas has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Atlanta, Las Vegas and Homestead there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons to those events. Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent numbers of the tri-oval at Fort Worth and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 36 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

Chase Elliott won this event one year ago. That was the last time the NASCAR Cup Series went points racing at Texas Motor Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports star led 39 laps but outmaneuvered Brad Keselowski during the overtime finish to win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. It was Elliott's first-career victory at the Fort Worth oval. The No. 9 Chevrolet team have yet to scratch the win column in 2025, so a trip to Fort Worth could be a major opportunity for this driver and team to find victory lane for the first time this season.

Homestead-Miami Speedway back in March is our most recent look at the drivers on a similarly sized oval and maybe our best barometer of what to expect this weekend. The Chevrolets were strong and captured the 1-2 finish. Toyota drivers brought home third- through fifth-place and a lone Ford driver came in sixth-place, so we had good manufacturer parity in that event. We could be in for a sequel to Homestead action in Sunday's Wurth 400. Kyle Larson also came out on top in that recent Homestead race, so we'll need to give him very close examination. Additionally, the Toyota of 23XI Racing and driver Bubba Wallace was strong, but clearly second fiddle to the Hendrick Chevrolets. That's something to commit to memory before filling out your fantasy racing lineups for Texas. We'll take a look at the contenders for the win and the spoilers from the field that could jump up and surprise this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Coming off strong runner-up finish at Talladega and having won two of the last five events, Larson is in good position to challenge for the win at Texas. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event in 2021 and he's led significant laps at Texas over the last four races here (451 laps). Larson also grabbed the victory in the 2021 All-Star Race at Texas to further illustrate his excellence here. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been strong on intermediate ovals this season with a dominant performance and victory at Homestead back in the end of March. Larson's career numbers don't look great at Texas Motor Speedway, however, realize that his surge in performance here the last four seasons has put him squarely in the contenders list for this week.

William Byron – Byron rides a four-race Texas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action and that includes 103 total laps led during the span. His visit to Texas two seasons ago netted his first-career victory in Fort Worth and his Top-10 rate at the oval now stands at a strong 60-percent. Byron is standing tall in the current season with one win and a strong 70-percent Top-10 rate in the 2025 campaign and he comes to Texas riding a ton of momentum from his third-place finish at Talladega last Sunday. If the odds-makers were paying closer attention they'd have Byron opening +450 like they have Kyle Larson, instead of the current +550. That seems like a pretty good deal to us. Regardless, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet will be a major factor in the outcome this Sunday in Fort Worth. 

Tyler Reddick – With his win here in 2022 and his runner-up finish at Fort Worth in 2020, it's clear that Reddick loves this oval. He's led a combined 73 laps in his last two Texas starts and that's a lot of time up front at this track. The 23XI Racing youngster now sports a 50-percent Top-5 rate at Texas and carries a strong 9.3 average finish at this oval. Those are two very good indicators over a six-race span. Reddick was a Top-5 finisher at Darlington recently and Top-10 finisher at Homestead. Given Reddick's history at Texas Motor Speedway we have to give him a long, hard look for the Wurth 400. This is a track that the No. 45 Toyota team has figured out.   

Denny Hamlin – The three-time Texas winner has proven over the years that this isn't his best intermediate oval, but he brings homerun potential to this track when the racing really matters. With over 300-career laps led and his last Texas victory as recently as 2019, we have to take Hamlin very serious in this race. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota had two wins and a runner-up finish across a three-race span prior to Talladega last week. Hamlin's 16 Texas Top 10's stands at a steady 47-percent rate and he's finished inside the Top 10 in two of his last three Texas Motor Speedway starts. Hamlin will be a serious threat to the Hendrick Chevrolets this weekend in Fort Worth. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Elliott won this event one year ago for his first-career Texas Motor Speedway victory. It was a bit of a surprising outcome but it underscored how good he is at this oval and his potential here. His seven Top-10 finishes at the 1.5-mile Fort Worth track equals a respectable 50-percent Top-10 rate and his 12.2 average finish at this facility is a pretty sharp number. The Hendrick Motorsports star has not been a world-beater thus far in 2025 on the intermediate ovals, so we've ranked him in the solid plays list this week. This is not one of Elliott's best intermediate ovals, but he can hold his own here. With the No. 9 team on the upswing, a Top-10 finish seems very likely.

Christopher Bell – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been an up-and-down performer on the mid-sized ovals this season, but he should be on the high side of the ledger in Fort Worth. Bell has six-career Cup Series starts at Texas Motor Speedway, and he's captured three Top-5 finishes in those efforts for a 50-percent Top-5 rate and respectable 13.7 average finish. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota started a Texas best third-place on the grid one year ago and Bell scored a Top-5 finish at the facility in 2024. Given the current momentum of this driver and team and Bell's track specific success at Fort Worth, we believe he's a solid fantasy racing play this weekend.   

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has poor career numbers at Texas Motor Speedway with just two Top-5 finishes in 15 starts (13-percent) and an average finish well above 20. But we're invested in the No. 48 Chevrolet team this weekend and believe Bowman will turn in a Top-10 and possibly Top-5 finish. He's been sharp on the intermediate ovals this season and recently won the pole, led a lot of laps and finished runner-up at Homestead. That's a good barometer for his success at Texas Motor Speedway this Sunday. Bowman doesn't usually qualify very well at the Fort Worth oval, and that leads to a lot of his problems here. However, watch this team closely during qualifying. If Bowman starts well, it's very likely he'll finish well in the Wurth 400. 

Ryan Preece – Preece saw a possible win slip away at Talladega last Sunday and then a Top-5 finish evaporate after post-race NASCAR penalties. However, we believe the driver of the No. 60 Ford will be on the comeback trail this Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. Preece has been pretty zeroed-in on the cookie cutter tracks this season with a third-place Las Vegas finish and more recently a ninth-place finish at Homestead. His 10.0 average finish on the three intermediate oval races to-date this season is hard to ignore. Preece has never been a big performer at Texas Motor Speedway but his respectable 12th-place finish in this event one year ago was a career-best Texas finish for him. He and the No. 60 Ford team are running well right now and should be in the midst of the Top 10 after 400 miles at Texas.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Texas & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – All the sleeper drivers will carry some form of risk this week at Texas and Blaney is no exception. This season he's been up-and-down on these size tracks. A good example was his dominant (124 laps led) performance at Homestead a few weeks ago, which ended in a DNF due to engine failure. That homerun potential exists with Blaney and the No. 12 Ford team but tempered with some risk. As for Texas Motor Speedway, he has a good 50-percent career Top-10 rate at the track but hasn't been very sharp in his last two visits. Blaney has led close to 450 laps at the Fort Worth oval so he clearly knows how to get around this place. Deploy in fantasy lineups at your own risk, but realize the ceiling is pretty high.  

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is in much the same boat as his teammate, Ryan Blaney. Logano is a one-time Texas winner and he cracks the Top 10 here at a strong 52-percent rate. Intermediate ovals have been reasonably good for the No. 22 Ford team, just not excellent. Logano has compiled an average start of 6.0 this season on the 1.5-mile tracks and an average finish of 13.7 so he has qualified well and been a Top-15 finisher on these style ovals. The veteran driver has even led 123 laps on these ovals in 2025 so he's been running up front just not consistently finishing there. Logano earned an 11th-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway last season and that's probably a good mark to expect for the Wurth 400.

Ross Chastain – Chastain has been pretty good on the cookie cutter tracks this season with an eighth-place finish at Atlanta and fifth-place at Las Vegas. Homestead was a disappointment but we're willing to write that off as an outlier. While the Trackhouse Racing driver doesn't sport the dominant career stats we'd like to see at Texas, Chastain has been sharp on these ovals the past couple years. He qualified fifth and finished second at Texas two seasons ago and Chastain returned last year to qualify well and lead 33 laps. However, that start would end in a late-race crash battling among the leaders. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has a lot of upside at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend.  

Daniel Suarez – The stealth guy running under the radar this week is likely Suarez and his No. 99 Chevrolet team. The veteran driver has 12-career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and he's converted five of those into Top 10's, three of those Top 10's in his last four trips to Fort Worth. The last start for Suarez at TMS netted a fifth-place finish in this event one year ago. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has been up-and-down on the intermediate ovals in recent months. However, he did lead 12 laps and drove to an impressive runner-up finish at Las Vegas earlier in the spring. Suarez makes a steady play in Sunday's 400-mile battle in Fort Worth.

Bubba Wallace – The last time we saw Wallace in action at Texas Motor Speedway, he grabbed a seventh-place finish in last season's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Two seasons ago Wallace led a whopping 111 laps and finished third-place at the Fort Worth oval. What will he do this weekend to complete the Texas trifecta? The 23XI Racing veteran has one Top 5 and two Top 10's in his last three starts on 1.5-mile tracks. Wallace's last start netted a strong third-place finish at Homestead just a few weeks ago. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota really hasn't had much career success at Fort Worth prior to his last two starts, but obviously those performances are fresh on the minds of this driver and team.

AJ Allmendinger – The veteran Kaulig Racing driver is the super deep sleeper this round of the NASCAR schedule. While Allmendinger doesn't have impressive stats at Texas with just two Top-10 finishes in 21 starts (10-percent), he has been very good on the intermediate ovals thus far this season. The driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet has two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2025 for a razor sharp 9.7 average finish. Allmendinger has qualified reasonably well on these style tracks and brought home just very good finishes. His most recent was a strong seventh-place finish at Homestead just a few weeks ago. Allmendinger hasn't earned a Top 10 at Texas since 2011, but he's very likely to break that dry spell on Sunday afternoon.        

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – You know it's a bad season when Keselowski has been held out of the Top 10 for the first 10 races in the schedule, and he's coming off a terrible crash and DNF at one of his favorite tracks (Talladega) last weekend. Texas Motor Speedway has held a lot of success for Keselowski over the years. He's a one-time Fort Worth winner and cracks the Top 5 and Top 10 at respective 24- and 48-percent rates across 29-career starts. He carries a strong six-race Texas Top-10 streak into Sunday, but it's in great jeopardy. Keselowski has been an absolute mess on the cookie cutter ovals this season with a subpar 25.3 average finish. It's best to pass him up in fantasy racing leagues and pools this weekend.  

Kyle Busch – Speaking of slumping drivers, Busch has just one Top 10 in his last six events. He's dropped from seventh- to 16th-place in the driver standings during the slump. The Richard Childress Racing star leads all active drivers with four-career victories at Texas Motor Speedway but has struggled on cookie cutter ovals of late with just one Top-10 finish in the last three for a 33-percent Top-10 rate. His last outing at a similar oval netted a disappointing 21st-place finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway a few weeks ago. Busch has struggled in two of his last three starts at Texas motor Speedway despite his 56-percent career Top-10 rate at the track. The No. 8 Chevrolet team is simply too great a risk to deploy Sunday at Texas.

Cole Custer – It's been a tough start to the season for the newly branded Haas Factory team and tough relaunch of a Cup Series career for Custer. They've yet to score a Top-10 finish through 10 races this season and are just as of last weekend racking up their first Top 15 at Talladega. Custer sits a disappointing 34th-place in the overall driver standings. The trip to Fort Worth doesn't offer much hope for a reversal. Custer has three finishes outside the Top 25 this season on the mid-sized ovals and his Texas Motor Speedway resume isn't very good. In four-career starts the journeyman driver has no Top-10 finishes and just one Top-15 finish. The average finish is checking in around 26.8 at the Forth Worth oval.   

Ty Gibbs – Despite qualifying reasonably well in his three prior Cup starts at Texas Motor Speedway (7.3 average start), Gibbs doesn't finish well here. With just one Top 15 to his credit the average finish is coming in around 22.0 to this point in his career at NASCAR's top level. That's discouraging enough, but the driver of the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has also struggled on the intermediate ovals in 2025. Gibbs' three starts to this point have yet to yield a Top-20 finish and the average finish across  the span is a disappointing 26.3. Gibbs' most recent outing in Homestead brought home a deflating 25th-place finish in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.