This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Manchester City are predictably a big favorite over Inter Milan in the Champions League Final. I don't expect any major changes from the current betting markets throughout the week that give City an implied goal total of two and a 65-percent chance to win in regular time. I expect City will have most of the possession in this match, but I think Inter offers some intriguing contrarian options for tournaments should you want to build lineups that speculate Inter are more competitive than the odds suggest.
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Champions League Final Cheat Sheet
CASH GAME STRATEGY
Kevin De Bruyne ($11,200) is expensive, but he has the best floor on the slate. He's the obvious choice for a cash game captain, and I don't think the tradeoffs of a less expensive captain get you enough in return for fading him. Erling Haaland ($11,000) is almost as expensive as De Bruyne, and he has the slate's highest goalscoring odds at -190. Even if those odds are a bit high, I still think he is an easy choice in cash games. In outcomes where he scores, it will be difficult to make up those points in your other spots. In outcomes where he fails to score, you should still have a shot to finish past the cash line due to the lack of alternative options with a solid floor. Indeed, it's worth noting that Haaland has had some solid floor-point performances in his last six starts (8.8, 10.7, 8.6, 4.1, 7.2, 10.5).
I'm expecting City will have at least 60 percent possession in this match, and this leaves me uninterested in Hakan Calhanoglu ($8,200) and Federico Dimarco ($7,200) in cash games. While it would be a boost for Calhanoglu if Dimarco missed the final due to an injury, I expect both to start and split set pieces. So much of their value is set piece dependent, and I do not expect City to concede many opportunities to Inter.
This leaves me interested in rostering two of Jack Grealish ($8,400), Ederson ($7,600), and Ilkay Gundogan ($7,200). Grealish had a poor fantasy performance in the FA Cup Final, but he was defended by Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who has been frustrating wingers all season. He's otherwise had an excellent floor and reliable minutes the past two months for City, and it feels like I'm banking at least eight points if I roster him. Gundogan is more affordable but is much more likely to score five points or less. He'll be popular due to his brace in the FA Cup Final, and the extra $1,200 if you play him over Grealish might be worth it if you can get to a better punt option. Ederson is pricey, but City's win odds are strong and their odds to keep a clean sheet sit just over 40 percent. I prefer him over Gundogan for $400 more, but Ederson doesn't have a floor based on saves. If he concedes, I'll feel fortunate to get five points out of him.
There are several punt options worth considering on both sides below that $5,000 salary point. Rodri ($4,800) doesn't have the most fantasy-friendly floor, but it's reasonable to project a 4-5 point floor with an outside chance of a goal or assist if City are dominating possession. If you can't afford Rodri, both Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake (if he starts) are both a very affordable $3,400. Finally, I'd like to note that the min-priced Henrikh Mkhitaryan ($3,000) is coming off a minor injury. He's still probably a fine punt play if he only scores three points in 55 minutes, but it's worth noting since he is already an early substitute risk when fully fit.
TOURNAMENT IDEAS
I'll be thinking a lot about players who will be rostered frequently in combination with each other. One example is De Bruyne, Haaland, and Ederson. While I am a fan of 1-0 constructions in Showdown, all three of those players will be popular and you'll want to find a way to be unique if you roster all three of them together. There are plenty of ways to do this, whether it be through leaving salary on the table or adding a negatively correlated player to this combination. For example, Andre Onana ($4,400) is a higher variance option, but I am always willing to roster a cheap goalkeeper in tournaments, and rostering both goalkeepers in the same lineup is generally an underutilized strategy in GPPs. I think he'll have enough save opportunities to make up for any goals Inter may concede.
I expect Mkhitaryan to be popular, but due to his injury and limited minutes, I'd like to avoid rostering him as a punt in tournaments. I'm more interested in the Inter center-backs. Alessandro Bastoni ($3,800) is unafraid of making forward runs, and he gets a surprising amount of offensive peripheral points for his position. I think Inter will have some phases where they will push, especially if they are chasing the game, and in that sort of script, I think he can easily outscore his modest price tag. Francesco Acerbi ($3,200) is just $200 more than Mkhitaryan, and he is capable of registering a shot or two along with defensive peripherals. I think he could easily outscore Mkhitaryan, and that small difference could matter a lot in larger tournaments where you need to be close to perfection.
I think Inter goalscorers will be underrepresented in tournaments. Should Inter get a goal or two, finding the right attackers will vault you up tournament leaderboards. Lautaro Martinez ($9,200) is a pay-up-to-be-contrarian option at his price, but I think I prefer targeting other Inter options. I expect Romelu Lukaku ($8,800) to sub on at some point, and he would likely take any penalties ahead of Lautaro. He is a great option for a substitute goal if you like to consider that strategy. Nicolo Barella ($6,200) doesn't have inspiring goalscoring odds, but I think he is a great option at his price in case he scores or assists a goal. Finally, Edin Dzeko ($6,800) is much cheaper than Lautaro for similar goalscoring odds. Dzeko is very likely to be subbed around the 65th minute, but I think that risk is already included in his price.
