This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I've been a fairly even bettor in this article the last few weeks, which is better than losing every pick. This week felt a little tougher and that kind of shows in a few of my bets, especially the first one which involves Bournemouth. As usual, if you don't like these bets, check out our podcast, which features a few more.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris are fresh off a combined 6-0 weekend and up more than $4,000 overall as a show.
Record: 54-39-1. Up $1,697 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Bournemouth
Bournemouth +1 +125 against Liverpool
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This opening bet wasn't initially on my radar, but it's pretty clear the oddsmakers are back on the Liverpool train after some positive results, namely the 7-0 thrashing of Manchester United. Still, the numbers aren't as positive away from home for Liverpool, as they still have just 13 goals in 12 away matches.
Bournemouth are back in the basement and no one expects them to take a point in this spot. There aren't a ton of other numbers that support this bet, especially since Hamed Traore and Marcus Tavernier have already been confirmed out with Jefferson Lerma being a late-fitness test.
At a minimum, the Cherries showed life last weekend even though it resulted in a loss to Arsenal. Combined with Liverpool's away struggles, I think a draw is in play with this bet and you'll get your money back if Liverpool only win by a goal in a classic letdown spot with a trip to Madrid next week.
*This bet is at DraftKings where +1 means if Bournemouth lose by a goal, it's a push.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Leicester City
Under 2.5 goals between Leicester City and Chelsea -120
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I don't know why I'm betting a Leicester City and Chelsea match, but this one feels right. As I said on Kits & Wagers, Leicester kind of threw everyone off their scent with a couple big matches, as they've reverted to normal, failing to score in their last three league matches. Youri Tielemans remains out and Harvey Barnes is a late-fitness test for this one.
While James Maddison should play, I think Leicester will take the same bend-not-break approach they took in the Arsenal match a couple weeks ago. Chelsea will have majority of possession and should get opportunities, but they're already struggling to hit the back of the net and that's not going to change away from home against a team that may be fine with a 0-0 result.
There's always the chance Leicester score early and the match opens up, but I'll take the nearly even odds for under 2.5 goals at -120.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton at Leeds United
Single-game parlay: Brighton double chance against Leeds -400 with Brighton over 4.5 corners -175 = +105
Leeds United have looked… somewhat better under Javi Garcia, but they're still struggling to score and that's not going to help with their limited chances against Brighton. While I considered Brighton at -105 to win, I'd rather get better odds on a single-game parlay.
I'm throwing Brighton double chance at -400 with over 4.5 corners at -175 for a +105 SGP. The last time Brighton didn't hit five corners in a match was against Liverpool back in January and I'm not overly confident in Leeds' ability to prevent them from hitting that number.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at West Ham United
Over 2.5 goals between West Ham and Aston Villa +105
Normally, I wouldn't bet this match. Aston Villa are nearly impossible to project, while West Ham played Thursday in Cyprus for the UECL. That said, it feels like a match where there will be opportunities for both sides. Villa should have more of the possession against what has been a shaky and somewhat injured back line.
My main worry is that Villa have played a bit safer away from home under Unai Emery, highlighted by three clean sheets in their last four away matches. I still have my doubts about their ability to defend consistently and West Ham have at least been passable at home, taking seven points in their last three chances. It's not my favorite play, but it feels like a 2-1 result to either side, so over 2.5 goals at +105 is the pick.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 27
- Bournemouth +1 +125 against Liverpool
- Under 2.5 goals between Leicester City and Chelsea -120
- Single-game parlay: Brighton double chance against Leeds -400 with Brighton over 4.5 corners -175 = +105
- Over 2.5 goals between West Ham and Aston Villa +105
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
