This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
First-round play at the U.S. Open continues Tuesday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. A couple of former Grand Slam champions will look to channel their glory days and pull off upsets as underdogs, while certain players will look to capitalize on matchups against opponents mired in slumps or with subpar resumes relative to most of the field.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Picks: Upset Alert
Thanasi Kokkinakis (+235) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas hasn't found much success at the U.S. Open over the years, posting a 6-6 record while never advancing past the third round. He also hasn't been playing particularly well lately, having gone just 1-2 at the two hard-court Masters 1000 events leading up to the U.S. Open in Montreal and Cincinnati. The No. 11 seed tends to struggle with his return of serve on hard courts, so Tsitsipas likely have trouble generating break chances against the big-serving Kokkinakis. The 84th-ranked Australian has pulled off plenty of notable upsets over the years, and he played well in his most recent tournament in Montreal, winning two qualifying matches and beating Gael Monfils in the main draw before falling in a third-set tiebreak to seventh-ranked Hubert Hurkacz. The only previous match between Tsitsipas and Kokkinakis came down to the wire at the 2021 Australian Open, as Tsitsipas eventually escaped 6-4 in the fifth.
Sofia Kenin (+275) vs. Emma Raducanu
Both of these players reached great heights early in their careers but have struggled under the pressure of heightened expectations since then, as Raducanu won the 2021 U.S. Open but plummeted outside the top 100 earlier this year before rebuilding her ranking to its current mark of No. 72 while the 54th-ranked Kenin also spent significant time outside the top 100 after reaching a career high of No. 2 in 2020 following her Australian Open victory and French Open runner-up result. Kenin's ranking is supported primarily by her strong stretch run in 2023, as she's just 8-20 in 2024 compared to Raducanu's 18-11 mark, but this is a good environment for the American underdog. The crowd should be on Kenin's side in this evening match on Grandstand, and Kenin has played her best tennis in recent years when the pressure's on the other side of the net, as was the case in her upset win over Coco Gauff at Wimbledon last year. With more raw power off the ground, Kenin has the ability to push Raducanu around if the American keeps her unforced error count under control.
Honorable Mention
Stan Wawrinka (+200) vs. Mattia Bellucci
U.S. Open Odds: Lock It In
Matteo Arnaldi (-330) vs. Zachary Svajda
Arnaldi's playing the best tennis of his career, as the 23-year-old Italian is currently ranked a career-best 30th on the heels of his Masters 1000 semifinal showing at the Canadian Open earlier this month. His best results this year have come on hard courts, where he's 14-10, and Arnaldi reached the Round of 16 in his first U.S. Open main draw appearance last year. Svajda also currently has the best ranking of his career, but in the 21-year-old American's case, it's a much less impressive No. 102, and he's just 5-13 in ATP Tour matches in his career. Svajda had a successful junior career and actually earned a wild card into the U.S. Open as a 16-year-old back in 2019, but his consistent, low-power style that worked so well at a young age in juniors hasn't been nearly as effective at the game's highest level.
Borna Coric (-300) vs. Adrian Mannarino
Neither of these players is close to peak form, but the 36-year-old Mannarino is much further removed from his best tennis than the 27-year-old Coric. Mannarino has a 56-spot edge in the rankings at No. 42, but that ranking is supported almost exclusively by his results late last year and the first couple months of 2024, as the wheels have completely fallen off for the veteran Frenchman en route to a 1-17 record in his last 18 matches. Coric is six years removed from his career high ranking of No. 12, but the Croatian is having a regular down year with an 11-16 overall record and an 8-10 mark on hard courts, which is significantly better than the recent ineptitude from Mannarino.
Honorable Mention
Flavio Cobolli (-300) vs. James Duckworth
U.S. Open Predictions: Value Bets
Taro Daniel (-175) vs. Tristan Schoolkate
Daniel has an ugly 8-20 ATP Tour-level record in 2024, but his 6-10 mark on hard courts is less putrid, and the world No. 88 has won all three of his hard-court matches against players ranked outside the top 100. He's an experienced pro who had a streak of 11 consecutive Grand Slam main draw appearances snapped at Wimbledon this year, while Schoolkate will be making his first Grand Slam main draw appearance as a result of receiving a wild card due to the USTA's reciprocal agreement with Australia. The 193rd-ranked Aussie was highly unlikely to get into the draw on his own merits considering he has a 0-3 career record on the ATP Tour and hasn't been ranked higher than No. 176 at age 23.
Christopher O'Connell (+185) vs. Nicolas Jarry
Both of these players have struggled the past few months, but O'Connell has had the better hard-court season in 2024, as the 86th-ranked Aussie beat Jack Draper in Indian Wells and Frances Tiafoe in Miami, reaching the Round of 16 at the latter event. O'Connell has an 11-10 hard-court record overall in 2024, while Jarry's just 7-7 on this surface and mired in a six-match losing streak overall. Jarry has a 60-spot edge in the rankings due to his success on clay, but the 6-foot-7 Chilean has posted surprisingly underwhelming results on faster surfaces throughout his career despite possessing a big serve.
Honorable Mention
Fabian Marozsan (-140) vs. Hamad Medjedovic
