This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of the Australian Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Saturday night in the United States. One American favorite is likely to encounter smooth sailing here while another is on upset alert, and two of the top pre-tournament title favorites face opponents who defeated them at some point last year.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+300) vs. Tommy Paul
The other three favored men in action today (Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev) have all reached at least nine Grand Slam quarterfinals -- a stat that gets even more impressive when you consider that Alcaraz is still only 21 years old -- while Paul is trying to get to only his third. The 11th-ranked American is far less dominant than those three players, and he faces a tricky matchup against Davidovich Fokina, whose talent level far exceeds the Spaniard's No. 66 ranking. Davidovich Fokina is an emotional player who sometimes seems to hold himself back mentally, but he'll feel like he's playing with house money here after coming back from two sets to love down in each of his last two matches and saving two match points in the third round against Jakub Mensik. Having reached a semifinal and a final in Masters 1000 events as well as the quarterfinals of the 2021 French Open, the 25-year-old Spaniard is no stranger to big matches. Paul leads their head-to-head 3-0, all on hard courts, but he was pushed to 6-4 in the fifth set when these two met at the 2023 Australian Open.
Mirra Andreeva (+300) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Andreeva is one of the few women in the world whose ceiling rivals Sabalenka's, and while the 17-year-old Russian may be another couple years from realizing that ceiling, Andreeva has already shown glimpses of her elite talent. She has already climbed into the top 15 and beat Sabalenka in the quarterfinals of last year's French Open. Sabalenka has won their other three encounters in straight sets, and the faster hard courts of the Australian Open should tilt the match more in the big-hitting Sabalenka's favor compared to Andreeva's preferred slower clay, but considering Andreeva's the only player to beat Sabalenka prior to the semifinals of a major since Sabalenka's third-round loss at the 2022 French Open, the talented teenager has as good a chance as anybody of repeating that feat here.
Honorable Mention
Olga Danilovic (+200) vs. Paula Badosa
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Coco Gauff (-575) vs. Belinda Bencic
After winning her first three matches here in straight sets, Gauff is 21-2 in her last 23 matches, with both losses coming against top-10 opponents. The No. 3 seed should keep rolling right along against Bencic, who has already exceeded expectations in her first Grand Slam back after giving birth. Bencic benefited from Naomi Osaka retiring in their third-round match, and while the Swiss veteran is a clean ball striker, she lacks the power to blow the ball by the speedy Gauff and doesn't have the speed to find much success when forced to defend herself. Their head-to-head is tied 1-1, but Bencic's win was a three-setter against a 16-year-old Gauff back in February of 2021, while Gauff's was a convincing 6-1, 6-2 drubbing in August of 2023.
Carlos Alcaraz (-1100) vs. Jack Draper
Alcaraz stated that his preseason goal was to win this tournament and complete the career Grand Slam, and the 21-year-old phenom has looked pretty clinical so far, dropping only one set across three comfortable wins en route to the Round of 16. The degree of difficulty climbs significantly here against Draper, but the Brit has to be losing some steam after being pushed to five sets in each of his first three matches. Draper has improved his fitness significantly and successfully shaken his shaky reputation in that department, but being pushed to five sets by three players ranked no higher than 47th suggests his level at this tournament hasn't been high enough to trouble top players. While his big lefty serve and comfort at net make Draper extremely dangerous on grass, where he notched a win over Alcaraz last year to improve to 1-2 overall, Draper's lack of easy power on the forehand is a glaring deficiency that will make it tough for him to hang on hard courts, where the emphasis on baseline rallies is far greater. Draper can normally get away with looping, spinny forehands to most righties' backhands in crosscourt exchanges, but Alcaraz has arguably the best backhand in the world and will likely feast on those patterns in this match.
Honorable Mention
Alexander Zverev (-575) vs. Ugo Humbert
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Donna Vekic (-140) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
In a slate full of heavy favorites and underdogs, this is the only match with a value bet opportunity. Pavlyuchenkova won when these two faced off in the first round of last year's Australian Open to improve to 2-0 head-to-head, but Vekic has been the far better player over the past year, while the 33-year-old Pavlyuchenkova's starting to show her age. This tournament marks only the second time the Russian has strung together three consecutive wins since February, and Pavlyuchenkova came into the Australian Open with an 11-14 record in her last 25 matches. Her run to the Round of 16 hasn't been overly impressive, either, as the No. 27 seed was pushed to three sets twice despite having yet to face a seeded opponent. Conversely, Vekic is playing the best tennis of her career at age 28, as last year's Wimbledon semifinalist and Olympic silver medalist is making yet another deep run at a big tournament. Coming off a 6-7 (4), 7-6 (3), 7-5 win over No. 12 seed Diana Shnaider, the No. 18 seed won't be lacking confidence in the clutch and has a nice opportunity to turn the tables in this head to head.
