This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Fourth-round play begins Tuesday from the hard courts of Indian Wells. An underdog on the women's side will look to add another massive win to her extensive collection of marquee victories, while a favored American is in good position to keep advancing, as is a top ATP player with a recent history of success at this tournament.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Karolina Muchova (+330) vs. Iga Swiatek
There aren't many upset opportunities in Tuesday's slate, which is expected to be full of competitive matches based on the pre-match odds. This match is an exception, with Swiatek heavily favored, but Muchova has proven capable of hanging tough against the world No. 1. Swiatek leads their head-to-head 3-1, but two of the Pole's wins came down to 6-4 in the third set, including the memorable 2023 French Open final. Muchova's variety makes it difficult for Swiatek to build a rhythm, and the crafty Czech realizes that she'll need to keep the favorite off balance, as Swiatek's nigh impossible to stop when she gets rolling. Swiatek's searching for her third Indian Wells title in a four-year span, so she's certainly the favorite in this match, but Muchova won't lack belief given her numerous marquee wins over top players in recent years, and the underdog has a real chance of pulling this one off, as this is a matchup that would have been worthy of a semifinal or even final rather than the Round of 16.
Indian Wells Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Jessica Pegula (-175) vs. Elina Svitolina
Pegula has a 5-2 head-to-head edge over Svitolina, including a 6-1, 6-1 drubbing in the American's favor at Indian Wells in 2021 and a 6-3, 7-6 (3) Pegula hard-court win in Doha last month. All but one of their other five matches have gone three sets, so this is likely to be a competitive encounter, but Pegula's flat strokes tend to trouble Svitolina, who prefers to have a little more time to set up her shots. Both of these players are born in 1994 and have been ranked as high as No. 3 in the world, but Pegula was a later bloomer and is closer to her peak level, as she's ranked No. 4 at the moment while Svitolina has slipped to No. 23.
Honorable Mention
Tallon Griekspoor (-240) vs. Yosuke Watanuki
Indian Wells Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Daniil Medvedev (-165) vs. Tommy Paul
Medvedev's off to a slow start in 2025, but he's still among the game's elite hard-court performers and is 12-2 in his last 14 matches at Indian Wells, with both losses coming against Carlos Alcaraz in championship matches. That run includes a win over Paul in last year's Indian Wells semifinal, and Medvedev leads their head-to-head 3-1 (2-0 on hard courts). Paul has done well to get his ranking up to No. 11 -- five spots back of the Russian -- but the American is still the clear underdog against Medvedev on hard courts. Paul's ability and willingness to get to the net will make it difficult for Medvedev to just camp out 10 feet behind the baseline, but Paul will be asked to hit quality rally balls and approach shots over and over, which will be a tall order given his forehand's tendency to break down and Paul's proclivity for drifting out of matches mentally for stretches.
Holger Rune (+125) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
There are convincing factors pulling in both players' directions here, and given their enigmatic natures, there's value in backing the slight underdog in such unpredictable circumstances. Both of these guys have the talent to be in the top five, having gotten there before, but Tsitsipas is currently ranked ninth and Rune is four spots behind him. After slumping for over half a year, Tsitsipas has reignited his game with a racquet and string change and comes into this encounter on a seven-match winning streak. Rune will be his first top-20 opponent since the start of the streak, though, and the Dane has won all three of their previous encounters, including two on hard courts. Both players wear their emotion on their sleeve and sometimes get in their own heads, so the mental edge Rune has from his favorable history against Tsitsipas shouldn't be overlooked.
Honorable Mention
Arthur Fils (-165) vs. Marcos Giron
