This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Fourth-round play continues Wednesday from the hard courts of Indian Wells. A pair of big-serving American men could set up a quarterfinal clash, while the title favorite on the men's side will look to keep rolling, and a favored American women faces a tough test against an in-form opponent.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Donna Vekic (+250) vs. Madison Keys
Keys has been on a roll in 2025 and currently boasts a 14-match winning streak, but the Australian Open champ showed some vulnerability in her 6-2, 6-7 (8), 6-4 third-round win over Elise Mertens, in which nerves contributed to Keys letting the second set slip away. This will be only Keys' third match since her Australian Open triumph in January, and there's no substitute for match play when it comes to navigating the pressure of closing out sets and matches. Vekic has the ability to disrupt Keys' rhythm by seizing control of rallies with her own powerful groundstrokes, and the 19th-seeded Croatian has been in excellent form in Indian Wells, as she has yet to drop as set and is coming off a convincing 7-6 (5), 6-1 win over Keys' eighth-ranked American compatriot Emma Navarro. The head-to-head has been a mixed bag, with Keys leading 2-1 overall but Vekic winning their only hard-court encounter.
Honorable Mention
Francisco Cerundolo (+285) vs. Alex de Minaur
Indian Wells Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Ben Shelton (-175) vs. Brandon Nakashima
Nakashima's rock-solid and tough to break, but Shelton just has more firepower and ways to win the crucial points late in sets. Shelton doesn't generate many breaks of serve, but their previous three encounters provide a likely roadmap for how this all-American showdown will go. Shelton has a 3-0 record against Nakashima and has won all seven sets between them, though all seven of those sets have been either 7-5 or 7-6. All three of those matches have come in the past year, including Shelton's 7-6 (3), 7-5, 7-5 triumph at this year's Australian Open. Both young Americans currently boast career-high rankings, as the 22-year-old Shelton sits at 12th while the 23-year-old Nakashima's ranked 33rd, but Shelton has the definitive advantage in both their overall results and head-to-head so far. Nakashima could have a slight edge in crowd support as a Californian, but Shelton's a former college tennis star at Florida who embraces the college road game-like atmosphere.
Carlos Alcaraz (-700) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Alcaraz has won 14 consecutive matches here at Indian Wells and is trying to win this title for a third straight year. The slower conditions help neutralize the timing issues Alcaraz occasionally faces on other hard courts, where skidding balls can give him trouble, especially on the return of serve. Dimitrov did well to get through a 7-6 (4), 4-6, 7-6 (2) thriller against Gael Monfils late Monday night, but it's fair to wonder if the Bulgarian's tank will be fully replenished given his recent injury woes. Alcaraz has dropped just two sets during his Indian Wells winning streak, and Dimitrov will be hard-pressed to take this match the distance, let alone win. While Dimitrov actually has a pair of hard-court wins over Alcaraz (the Spaniard leads their head-to-head 3-2 overall), these slower conditions will make it awfully difficult for the underdog to replicate that success.
Honorable Mention
Aryna Sabalenka (-1100) vs. Sonay Kartal
Indian Wells Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Taylor Fritz (+120) vs. Jack Draper
Fritz is a nice value as the slight underdog in this match given the American's favorable history at Indian Wells. He's intimately familiar with the venue having grown up in the area, and Fritz's title at Indian Wells in 2022 was the highlight of his career before he reached the final of the U.S. Open last year. Draper has been climbing the rankings now that the Brit has put some early-career injuries and ailments behind him, but he's still 10 spots behind the fourth-ranked Fritz. Draper's the superior mover and volleyer, but Fritz has significantly more pop on his forehand than Draper has on his lefty forehand. Both players are excellent servers, so breaks will be at a premium, but Fritz should get more free points with his serve while Draper serves more to set up his next shot or two. These two have split four previous meetings, and this one's likely to come down to the wire as well.
Coco Gauff (-125) vs. Belinda Bencic
Bencic has looked fantastic in 2025 after an extended absence for the birth of her child, but Gauff is the better player, especially when the American's serve is finding its mark. After getting through an ugly 21 double faults in the second round, Gauff sharpened her game significantly in the third round, notching a 7-6 (1), 6-2 win over Maria Sakkari, who had reached at least the semifinals at Indian Wells each of the previous three years. While Bencic robs opponents of time with aggressive court positioning thanks to her excellent timing, Gauff's speed and retrieval skills should help the No. 3 seed work her way into quite a few rallies that she starts on the back foot. The 58th-ranked Bencic is a far less proficient defender, so Gauff should have an easier time finishing off points in which the American's the aggressor.
Honorable Mention
Jasmine Paolini (-110) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
