This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The US Open men's final will be played Sunday. The underdog prevailed in this very matchup in the final here two years ago, but the favorite has had a far more decorated career and has shown no signs of slowing down in 2023. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slam are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in the final Grand Slam singles match of 2023.
US Open Men's Final Odds: Djokovic vs. Medvedev
Djokovic came out flat against countryman Laslo Djere in the third round but recovered from a two-set deficit and dropped only five games over the final three sets. Outside of that match, he has breezed through every US Open match in straight sets, though No. 9 seed Taylor Fritz was his only seeded opponent outside of No. 32 Djere. Unlike 2022 US Open finalist Casper Ruud, whose favorable draw played a crucial part in his appearance in the championship match, Djokovic likely would have been here even if he had to face a couple of tougher opponents considering he won the first two Grand Slams of 2023 before losing in the final at Wimbledon. The 23-time Grand Slam champion has been especially effective in the clutch. After putting away American upstart Ben Shelton in a third-set tiebreak in the semis, Djokovic has now won 16 of his last 17 tiebreaks in Grand Slam matches. The one loss notably came in his Wimbledon final loss to Carlos Alcaraz, and this final could also swing on the outcome of a tiebreak or two.
Medvedev denied us the chance to see a Djokovic-Alcaraz Grand Slam rubber match by beating Alcaraz 7-6 (3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in the semifinals. To beat Alcaraz, Medvedev delivered his best performance of the year, and arguably his best match since he beat Djokovic in the 2021 US Open final to deny Novak the calendar slam. In his post-match interview, the Russian acknowledged that he knew he had to play 10/10 tennis to beat the No. 1 seed, then proclaimed that he delivered on that goal by playing 12/10 except for the third set. The game plan against Djokovic will be the same; Medvedev will play his usual defensive style while picking his spots on offense. How well he executes on the serve and shot placement will determine whether Medvedev can make inroads against Djokovic, and the No. 3 seed's form so far in this tournament suggests he'll at least hang around in this match.
Djokovic leads the head-to-head against Medvedev 9-5, but Medvedev won their most recent encounter 6-4, 6-4 on the hard courts of Dubai. In Grand Slams, Djokovic is 2-1 against Medvedev, with both of the Serb's wins coming at the Australian Open and Medvedev's triumph coming in the aforementioned 2021 US Open final. The hard courts at the US Open play more in Medvedev's favor, helping him make his breakthrough run to the final here in 2019 and claim his lone Grand Slam title to date in 2021. The DraftKings odds for this match are tilted more in Djokovic's favor than the tale of the tape justifies, so Medvedev offers nice value as a significant underdog, but at the end of the day, it will take a second consecutive Herculean effort for Medvedev to deny Djokovic his 24th career Grand Slam title.
US Open Men's Final Prediction: Djokovic def. Medvedev 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-3