Collette Calls: Final Bullpen Decisions

Entering the week there were roughly six closer situations that were not yet settled. The pitcher named as closer on Opening Day has the early lead for the team. Given that it has taken this long for the clubs to make a final decision on who the Opening Day closer will be, how confident should we be that pitcher will finish the season with the most saves for his club? 

Let us play a game of blind resume where I present the stats, and force you to click on the link to see who the pitcher is so you can make a decision based on the metrics rather than the reputation.

We will begin with the defending champions in Boston, as manager Alex Cora has not dropped a single hint about who will have the job if the Red Sox go into the bottom of the ninth in Seattle this weekend with a lead. Do you prefer Pitcher A or Pitcher B?

Pitcher A does not hand out too many free passes, but has a strikeout rate that is just slightly better than league average for relievers. Still, he gets more swings and misses than his competition, even though hitters do square him up more frequently when he does pitch in the zone. Pitcher B gets the strikeouts, but struggles with walks, home runs, and has a below-average first pitch strike rate. That is the decision that faces manager Alex Cora as he chooses between Ryan Brasier (A) and Matt Barnes (B). The marketplace has been mostly in Barnes's favor, which has made Brasier a good value on draft day.

Kansas City is not going to win many games in 2019. I predict their final stolen base total will be three times as high as they final win total. The back end of the bullpen present the two options below; pick your poison.

Both pitchers struggle with walks, home runs, and are flyball pitchers. Frankly, Ned Yost does not have a great option here, but these are the two options that he currently has. Pitcher B is Brad Boxberger, who is likely going to have this job, but Pitcher A, Wily Peralta, is not any type of upgrade. 

Let's move to a more pleasant situation in Minnesota, where rookie manager Rocco Baldelli has multiple good options at his disposal. 

Baldelli spoke with Do-Hyoung Park the other day about the late innings and had this to say:

That is a lot of words to say that is is unlikely there will be one full-time closer in Minnesota this year. It is not surprising that the analytically-minded Baldelli is eschewing traditional roles and trying to see what will work. 

When you look at the pitchers above, there is one guy that stands out as someone that can generate swinging strikes and is tough to hit in the strike zone. There are three guys with above-average strikeout rates, and three guys that struggled with home runs last year. By expected outcomes based on contact, there are two clear favorites: Trevor May (Pitcher A) and Taylor Rogers (Pitcher B). May is fully recovered from his TJ surgery while Rogers has made more recent experience. The marketplace has been very split on this, and we may not have a full-time guy for some time into the season. Blake Parker (Pitcher C) nor Trevor Hildenberger (Pitcher D) look like clear lagging choices.

In Miami, Don Mattingly has two incredibly similar choices:

It is no secret who the two players are – Sergio Romo (Pitcher A) and Drew Steckenrider (Pitcher B). Romo has the recent experience, but has one foot in the retirement bucket. Steckenrider has the youth and velocity on his side. It would not be surprising to see Romo get more chances early as Miami attempts to inflate his value to get something of value for Romo at the trade deadline. There is only one deadline now, so all wheeling and dealing has to be done by August. Even if Romo were to get that job right away, there would still be two full months for Steckenrider to grab saves later in the season.

Manager Gabe Kapler loved to use his bullpen early and often last year, and has a deeper pen to utlize this year. There are three clear options for the role should Kapler decide to settle on one guy:

The language has mostly been around Seranthony Dominguez (Pitcher A) and David Robertson (Pitcher B), but note how well Hector Neris stacks up in some areas. He is the toughest guy to hit within the zone, generates the most swings and misses, and has the highest strikeout rate. Yet, he also has the worst home run rate and generates the highest number of fly balls. That alone, in his home park, is why he is not the best play there, but Neris remains intriguing should Kapler stream closers as Baldelli will do, or if Neris is dealt elsewhere. The outings will not be pretty, but those skills are not something you should dismiss out of hand.

Kapler cannot really go wrong with either Dominguez or Robertson and could use them interchangeably, depending on the situation. We all know Robertson has an uncanny ability to strand runners, so perhaps he gets the hairy save situations while Dominguez  gets the clean starts. 

The Giants have yet to commit to a closer, but who are they kidding?

Simply put, that job belongs to Will Smith (Pitcher A), as long as he remains with the Giants. If the club deals him, Mark Melancon (Pitcher B) is the next man up on paper, but those are bad numbers and his velocity has been down in spring training. You should instead look to Sam Dyson (Pitcher C), whose numbers look more closer worthy than the name value of Melancon.