Collette Calls: The Homestretch

The baseball season is roughly two thirds of the way complete as you read this article. I'll pause for a moment to allow you to grieve or to make your next pick in your fantasy football slow draft. If you are reading this article now, that means you are still in contention for a league title, and I both thank you for still reading about baseball in the peak of fantasy football season as well as applaud your success for still being in contention through the dog days of summer. You have come this far in the season with strategy and guile while likely either surviving a rash of injuries or having Aaron Judgian luck across your roster in avoiding injuries. Do not let yourself get distracted with preseason football games or fantasy football drafts to close out this season as you look to plan out the final third of the season. 

As you sit down to plan out this home stretch, it is important to figure out what is realistic and what is improbable when you look for player performance as the season winds down. A curveball to this season is the fact three of the six divisional races are all but over, as the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers have commanding leads in their respective divisions. It would take an utter collapse from those teams to lose their positioning. The Astros and Yankees can continue plugging away for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but the Astros are in the driver's seat there with the easier schedule the rest of the way as they play in the weaker division. The Dodgers already have a five-game lead over the Mets for that honor, so they could begin maintenance mode operations earlier in September that could become a threat to the playing time you've grown accustomed to with some of your key contributors. Don't forget that factor as you begin to consider the realm of the possible the rest of the way. To determine the realm of the possible, let's take a look at some of the best runs of statistical production to close out a season in recent years. We'll start with the hitting, looking at the final 50 games for players since 2015. The pitching categories use 12 starts or 20 relief appearances as guidelines. 

Home runs

Anytime I can get a table with Edwin Encarnacion on it, I'm happy. That is the entire list of players with 20 or more homers to close out a season, but note that just three guys have done it since the elimination of the super happy fun ball of 2019. Martinez, Cruz and Donaldson had their seasons in friendly environments but Olson's run with Oakland in 2017 stands out given his home park. Judge is in the midst of a heater right now as he has more homers (13) in the past 30 days than the entire roster of the Miami Marlins (10). The biggest surprise on this list may just be Dozier because he went on that tremendous run where seemingly everything he hit left the yard down the stretch. A more realistic homer total may be closer to 15-18 given the new baseball environment. There are but two players who have hit 20 homers over any 50-game stretch this season: Judge and Kyle Schwarber. If we expand it just a bit more, only those two plus Austin Riley, Byron Buxton, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez have hit as many as 18 homers in any 50-game stretch in 2022.

Runs Batted In

That is the entirety of players who averaged an RBI a game over the final 50 games in recent seasons. We can all fondly remember that amazing close to the 2018 season for Yelich, as he won the MVP that season, or how Beltre drove in 53 runs despite hitting just 9 homers in that span as a doubles machine. Expanding the list to 40 RBIs gives us 98 instances of that happening since 2015 and Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge, and Pete Alonso are the only four players with a stretch of 50 RBIs in 50 games at any point this season. There are 12 other players who have driven in as many as 40 runs over a 50-game span this year, so be happy if you get someone who drives in as many as 35 runners the rest of the way and don't get greedy. RBI are a matter of opportunity, so it goes without saying you'll need good hitters in the middle of the lineup on good teams. 

Runs

I would never have guessed Dozier is the only player since 2015 to score 50 or more runs in a 50-game span to close the season, but there it is. We've seen someone score 40 or more runs to close out a season 78 times. 50 players have done so, but just 17 of them have done it multiple times. Betts and Turner are the kings, having done so five times, but then you get surprises like Adam Eaton and Tommy Pham who have done it more times than the likes of Jose Altuve or Juan Soto. This season, we've already seen Tommy Edman score 48 runs in a 50-game stretch earlier this season while only Betts and Judge have been able to top that effort. DJ LeMahieu, Brandon Drury, and Luis Arraez are other surprising names we find on that same list this season. Set your vision on 35+ runs scored from your linchpins and you should not be disappointed. Aiming any higher is going to get you into trouble.

Steals

Remember, Mondesi is not around for his typical September magic this season. Berti is the only player this year to have a 50-game span with 20 or more steals, and it's highly unlikely he has another one in him as he nears his return from a groin injury. Only Berti, Ronald Acuna Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Tommy Edman have had as many as 15 steals in a 50-game span this season. If you can get 10 from a player the rest of the way, you should be happy, but I honestly don't know where that is going to come from.

Wins

That is the complete list of pitchers with more than eight wins down the stretch in recent seasons, lumping in the three active spans from Wright, Gonsolin and Verlander. Given McClanahan's recent struggles, Verlander now appears in the driver's seat for the AL Cy Young with his monster comeback season and could keep this run going given the strength of schedule for Houston the rest of the way. The only other pitchers this season with an impressive run of wins would include the eight wins Dylan Cease has racked up over his previous 12 starts, the similar stretch Julio Urias is in the middle of, and McClanahan's dominant run of eight wins in 12 starts which ended with his final July start in a loss to Cleveland. On the surprising end of the scale, Nick Pivetta won eight of his 12 outings from the middle of May leading into the All-Star break. We all know how finicky wins are and how relievers are picking up a greater share, and that is why I want to point out what a handful of relievers have done down the stretch in recent years:

We're just a season removed from five different relievers winning eight or more games in their final 50 outings. Green got five of his eight wins after August 1st as did Sewald and Suter, but Reyes had an astounding five wins in the final three weeks of last season. Don't forget your high-leverage relievers on good teams down the stretch!

Saves

This is not exactly a list of luminaries as much as a reminder that having the closer's job is a big part of getting saves. This is why we throw our remaining FAAB dollars at the likes of Cionel Perez or Jimmy Herget when they get a vacated closer role because anything can happen. There are over 100 instances of closers getting 10 or more saves in the final 50 games of the season, so don't give up hope in this category and continue to stream whatever you can into the role on your roster.

Strikeouts

Studs are gonna stud, with the occasional surprise (Marquez) sneaking in there. We have 27 instances of a pitcher striking out at least 100 batters over his final 12 outings, with Chris Sale doing it five separate times to lead the pack. Gerrit Cole, Dylan Cease, and Carlos Rodon are on current hot streaks but don't sleep on Braxton Garrett or Reid Detmers, as both have strikeout rates greater than 30 percent over the past month.