This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The conference tournament action again heats up as even more teams join the fun on Thursday's college hoops slate. Here are my predictions for three select games.
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Marquette 
at Xavier 
On the surface, Marquette appears to be the better team in this matchup; however, Xavier does a few things well that should give it a chance to pull an upset.
First, offensively, the Musketeers are elite at drawing contact and shooting from long range. They recorded the highest free-throw attempt rate during the Big East conference season while making 80 percent from the charity stripe, the third-highest mark in the league. The Golden Eagles are exceptional at getting stops and posting the second-best defensive rating among Big East teams, although they don't always get them cleanly. Marquette ranked sixth in free-throw attempt rate allowed during league play, so this is an area where Marquette may take advantage. The Musketeers also have a shot at the upset thanks to their consistent three-point shooting, having knocked down 39 percent of shots from beyond the arc, the 11th-highest mark among all D-1 teams. They also made 38 percent during the conference season, so this has been a legitimate weapon for them all season. The only offensive area where Xavier has a poor standing is its offensive rebounding percentage, which is the worst in the Big East. However, this is less of an issue in this matchup because Marquette has the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage.
Second, Xavier has played well defensively for most of the season, logging the 39th-best defensive rating in the nation and third-best among Big East teams during league play. The Musketeers' best defensive trait is their concentration on the glass, posting the second-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the conference. This is critical in this matchup because the Golden Eagles finished with the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage. It's also worth noting that Xavier ranks third in the free-throw attempt rate allowed, making it highly unlikely that Marquette will get many foul shots. This is a rare occurrence as it is, as the Golden Eagles love their jump shots, ranking near the bottom among all D-1 teams in free-throw attempt rate, 340th to be exact. The Musketeers' other defensive asset is their ability to take the ball away, ranking fifth in the league in defensive turnover percentage. The Golden Eagles are among the most protective teams in the nation, as they have the eighth-lowest offensive turnover percentage, but it's still worth noting.
These two teams have already met twice, with the road team winning by two points in each instance. In their second clash, Xavier held Marquette to its season-low point total in its 59-57 victory. According to KenPom, this victory also represented the Golden Eagles' least efficient offensive performance of the entire season.
Matchup notes aside, Xavier has been on fire over the past month. The Musketeers have won their last seven games, with each victory coming by at least seven points. In the process, they covered the spread in five of their previous seven games, per Action Network, giving a team that's truly on the rise. For these reasons, I'm betting Xavier will keep the game close on Thursday. I'm taking the points with the Musketeers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +2.5
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Colorado 
vs. Houston 
Colorado is finally showing signs of life. After losing the first 13 conference games of the season, the Buffaloes have won five of their last nine games, including two wins against Baylor and West Virginia. Now, the difficulty gets turned up to max as they face off against the king of the Big 12 mountain.
Colorado has a daunting task in trying to score on Houston's vaunted defense, especially considering it had the second-worst offensive efficiency rating during the Big 12 conference season. Even still, the Buffaloes do a couple of things well that may give them a chance to stay in the game. First, Colorado is noticeably proficient from close range, having made 52 percent of two-point attempts against Big 12 opponents, the fifth-highest mark in the league. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the Buffaloes are excellent at drawing contact, ranking fifth in the league in free-throw attempt rate. This is notable because Houston's defense doesn't have many cracks in its armor, but one of them is its penchant for fouling, logging the fifth-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed in the Big 12. Colorado made 75 percent of its foul shots, 80th in the nation, so this area shouldn't be overlooked. Furthermore, KenPom data suggests that Colorado's free-throw attempts correlate to its offensive production to a greater extent than turnovers or offensive rebounds. Scoring on Houston is never easy, but Colorado has a couple of tricks up its sleeve that might help.
Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, preventing the Cougars from scoring may be just as challenging, if not more challenging, than scoring on them. Houston's defense gets all the notoriety, deservedly so, but its offense is nearly as elite, as it posted the second-highest efficiency rating during the Big 12 conference season. The Cougars also led the league in offensive rebounding percentage and three-point shooting, knocking down 39 percent against conference opponents. Coincidentally, Colorado had the worst results against long-range shots, allowing Big 12 opponents to make 36 percent of three-point attempts, the worst in the league. This wasn't the only area where the Buffaloes finished last. They also had the worst free-throw attempt rate allowed during conference play, which is an area where Houston can benefit as it made 74 percent from the charity stripe, which is in the top third of the nation.
KenPom is projecting that the final score of this game will be 73-57. I agree, although it's worth adding that Colorado averages 69 points per game through nine instances over the past month. This includes games against elite defensive teams like Iowa State and Kansas, and the Buffaloes scored 64-plus points against both. This still isn't a great team overall, but its recent performances over the past 30 days suggest an improvement. For context, it went from being ranked 106th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart to 85th. Given an incredibly low betting total, I like our odds of the final point total busting the number. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 126.5
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Nevada 
vs. Colorado State
The Wolfpack have struggled mightily over the last few weeks, losing five of their previous six games. It played well in patches throughout the conference season but could never take down a superior opponent. Nevada played in 11 games against Mountain West teams that would've counted as a quality win, per KenPom, and it lost all 11.
The Rams, meanwhile, ascended the charts like few other teams over the past couple of months. When the conference season started, Colorado State was ranked 109th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and it now sits at No. 51 entering Thursday. The Rams nearly stole a share of the MWC regular season championship but eventually finished one game behind New Mexico for second place. They only lost four total conference games, all against the top teams in the league. They lost twice against New Mexico, once at San Diego State and once at Utah State. Not a bad run, and now that they're on a seven-game winning streak, they appear poised to keep it going.
The key to this pick is Colorado State's offense and how it matches up against Nevada. The Rams' offensive attack has steadily improved throughout the season, and they can now claim that they're the best shooting team in the Mountain West. During conference play, Colorado State had the second-highest offensive efficiency rating, and it made a league-leading 58 percent of two-point attempts and 39 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the highest effective field goal percentage. Nevada's defense is great at causing turnovers, recording the second-highest percentage in the MWC, although it's weak in other areas, especially when it comes to allowing easy shots. The Wolfpack allowed MWC opponents to make 52 percent of two-point attempts, sixth in the league, and 37 percent of three-point attempts, the worst mark allowed, giving them the third-worst effective field goal percentage allowed. It's also worth nothing that Colorado State is also the best from the charity stripe, where it made 81 percent during league play. Nevada's defense had the third-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed during the conference season, so this is another area where Colorado State can pad its score.
At the other end of the court, the Rams again best the Wolfpack in the significant statistical categories. Colorado State also finished the conference season near the top of the league on defense, recording the third-best defensive efficiency rating. The Rams posted a top-three ranking among MWC teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage allowed, making them a fundamentally sound team. The latter is extra noteworthy because Nevada has struggled with its long-range shooting over the past couple of months, barely making 31 percent against MWC foes, the worst in the league. If it can't score from the perimeter, then it will be in trouble, considering Colorado State tends to limit inside scoring. Nevada is also terrible on the glass, logging the second-worst offensive rebounding percentage, so it relies on open looks to score on the first opportunity of a possession.
Colorado State swept the season series against Nevada, starting conference play by winning at Reno by two points and then winning in Fort Collins by eight points in mid-January. Regardless of what happened in the previous meetings, these two teams have been trending in opposite directions for many weeks now. I'm laying the points with the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -5.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Xavier +2.5
- Colorado vs. Houston - Over 126.5
- Colorado State -5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
