This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday's college hoops slate features only one high-major matchup, but thankfully, several intriguing games are still on the schedule. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Thursday evening.
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Florida Atlantic 
at UAB 
These two teams are incredibly similar in that both lean on their offense to win games, but a closer look reveals one team has a significant edge over the other.
Most notably, the Blazers' offensive attack appears well-equipped to burn the Owls' defense. UAB has clearly separated itself as the best offensive team in the American Athletic Conference, leading the league in efficiency, turnovers, and offensive rebounding percentage. The latter is perhaps the single biggest concern for the road team, as Florida Atlantic has the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the AAC during league play and ranks 269th in the nation. The Blazers are at the opposite end of the scale, posting the sixth-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, a massive difference however you view it. The same is true when looking at the efficiency rankings, where UAB's offense stands at 36th for the whole season while FAU's defense comes in at 204th. During their recent three-game losing streak, the Owls' defense got burned for 70-plus points in each game, and none of the opposing offenses are at the same level of UAB.
Looking at the other side of the court, we see a similar situation from an overall point of view. Florida Atlantic ranks 80th in offensive efficiency with UAB substantially lower at 275th; however, there's virtually no gap when we focus on conference-only data. During league play, the Owls have the seventh-highest offensive rating in the AAC, and UAB is eighth on defense. The Blazers couldn't get many stops during the non-conference season, but they clearly made massive strides on defense once the calendar flipped to 2025. FAU's offense still holds a slight edge even when focusing on the more recent weeks, but it's not as bad as the season-long data makes it appear. For example, within the AAC conference season, FAU's offense outranks UAB's defense in effective field goal percentage (fourth vs. 10th), turnover percentage (10th vs. 11th), and rebounding (fifth vs. seventh).
Considering UAB's improved defense and its potent offense, I like its odds of earning a comfortable victory at home. I'm taking the Blazers.
College Basketball Best Bet: UAB -5.5
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Liberty 
at Middle Tennessee 
The Flames have a shot at winning the Conference USA regular season championship, in part because of its offensive attack. Since the Conference USA season tipped off, they have the second-highest offensive rating and have made 54 percent of two-point attempts and 37 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the highest effective field goal percentage in the league. These shooting numbers have been exceptionally high all season, recording the ninth-highest effective field goal percentage among all D-1 teams. The only thing the team doesn't do well is collect offensive boards, an area where it ranks last in the conference. Liberty will still likely tally at least a few on Thursday, as Middle Tennessee hasn't been great on the glass, logging the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage during league play.
Middle Tennessee isn't terrible otherwise, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency among CUSA teams. However, it has gotten torched from the perimeter, allowing conference opponents to make 35 percent from beyond the arc, the second-worst mark in the league. The Flames live and die by the three, though usually it's the former. Liberty attempts three-pointers at the 22nd-highest rate among all D-1 teams, and it has made 38 percent of them (17th), a lucrative combination if it holds over time, which it has. Middle Tennessee will likely get scorched if it doesn't shore up its perimeter defense on Thursday.
The Blue Raiders typically perform better at the other end of the court, where they have the third-highest offensive rating during league play. They also rank sixth in turnover percentage, seventh in rebounding, and eighth in free-throw attempt rate. In the same period, Liberty's defense has them beat in all four categories. Defensively, the Flames rank second in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, third in turnovers, fifth in rebounding, and first in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Overall, Liberty is the more balanced team, and it has a higher ceiling, thanks to its aggressive offensive strategy. The Blue Raiders may fall in a hole if the shots don't fall, but on the other side, they may cruise to victory if they get hot early. I'm going with the Flames in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Liberty +1.5
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Michigan State 
at Iowa 
The Spartans have won five consecutive games, arguably the best five-game stretch for any Big Ten team this season. Since losing a home game to Indiana, they have defeated Illinois (on the road), Purdue, Michigan (on the road), Maryland (on the road), and Wisconsin.
Michigan State has reached this point thanks to an elite defense that has established itself as the best in the Big Ten. The Spartans have the nation's fifth-best defensive efficiency rating and the best in the conference during league play.
The Hawkeyes will undoubtedly do their best to test this defense, though they haven't always succeeded against more formidable units. Iowa has the 34th-highest offensive efficiency rating and is a proficient group, but it doesn't show in its most difficult challenges. This is especially notable in its most recent games, where it was held to 57 points against Northwestern and 61 points against Illinois. A month ago, it was held to 63 points against Wisconsin (at home) and 65 points against Ohio State, further underscoring its challenges when facing stronger defensive teams. The Hawkeyes are great at protecting the ball and shooting it, leading the league in offensive turnovers and ranking fourth in effective field goal percentage during the conference season, but they're terrible in other critical areas. Namely, Iowa ranks near the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounding (314th) and free-throw attempt rate (337th), essentially limiting their scoring opportunities to a single jump shot on most possessions. This is fine if you're playing a lower-caliber opponent, but it's easy to see why Iowa doesn't look as explosive when going against better defenses. Thursday's opponent certainly fits the bill, as the Spartans lead the league in the following defensive categories: efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, three-point FG percentage, and block percentage.
When playing in the other direction, the Hawkeyes are the worst defensive team in the Big Ten. Since the conference season started, Iowa's defense ranks last in the league in efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed, second-worst in three-point FG percentage and two-point FG percentage, and third-worst in defensive rebounding. The latter will likely be a significant issue of concern on Thursday as Michigan State leads the league in offensive rebounding during conference play. The two areas that might work in Iowa's favor at this end are Michigan State's relative weaknesses in shooting and giveaways. The Spartans rank fourth in the conference in efficiency, so they're great at scoring overall, but they rank 12th in effective field goal percentage and 13th in turnover percentage, giving them two factors that could limit their scoring output. I would also be remiss if I didn't note that Iowa's defense does do one thing well -- cause havoc. The Hawkeyes have the sixth-highest turnover percentage among Big Ten teams, their lone saving grace on defense.
It's tempting to take Michigan State, a team that's firing on all cylinders, but ultimately, I'd rather avoid laying the required points on the road. Even still, Michigan State's defense has held its last five opponents to under 67 points, and Iowa's offense has shown it doesn't always do nearly as well when faced with a daunting challenge. For these reasons, I'm going with the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 151.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- UAB -5.5
- Liberty +1.5
- Michigan State at Iowa - Under 151.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
