This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
A top 25 Big Ten battle takes center stage on Wednesday's college hoops slate. Several other potential NCAA Tournament teams are also in action. Here are my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Michigan State 
at Maryland 
The Spartans cooled off after a fiery start to the season, winning 18 of 20. They then lost three of four, an understandable regression, but they are back to their winning ways. They have taken three straight against Illinois (road), Purdue and Michigan (road), each by nine-plus points.
Not to be outdone, Maryland has won 11 of 16 conference games, giving it a chance to come within a game of Michigan State if it can successfully defend its home court Wednesday.
Needless to say, this will be a challenging task. Maryland is strong defensively, ranking 21st in efficiency (per KenPom), but the road team doesn't make things easy. The Spartans have a highly skilled offense across the board, with their only flaw being a lack of long-range scoring options. The good news is that the coaching staff is self-aware enough to realize this and stopped forcing the issue as the season progressed. Michigan State ranks 335th in three-point attempt rate, although it still has a couple of players who can reliably knock down a shot when called upon. Regardless, the team is exceptionally productive even with this limitation, recording the 21st-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation and sporting top-51 rankings in free-throw attempt rate, two-point field goal percentage and free-throw percentage. The Spartans also boast the highest offensive-rebounding percentage among Big Ten teams during conference play and the 13th-highest in the nation for the whole season. Maryland ranks seventh in defensive rebounding among fellow conference teams, so this is an area where Michigan State can take advantage if we can trust recent history. I should also note that Michigan State has the second-highest free-throw attempt rate during the Big Ten conference season, while Maryland's defense ranks fifth, one more area in favor of the road team.
The challenge for the home team doesn't end defensively, as it also faces a daunting task in trying to score on what has been the best defensive team in the Big Ten. During conference play, Michigan State leads the league in efficiency, effective and three-point field goal percentages allowed, block percentage, and it's second in defensive rebounding. For good measure, the Spartans are holding conference foes to 49 percent on shots inside the arc, the fourth-best mark in the league. Maryland is only making 52 percent of two-point attempts against Big Ten opponents, seventh-best, so this is another area where Michigan State holds an edge, in addition to the aforementioned categories.
Maryland is a tough team, but Michigan State is too. The Spartans have repeatedly proven that they don't care where they play, home or away. All things considered, I'm taking the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State +3.5
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BYU 
at Arizona State
Upon analyzing this game, I felt a sense of deja vu. Sure enough, it turns out I already picked BYU in this matchup. Back on New Year's Eve, the Cougars hosted the first meeting as 10-point favorites and won 76-56, much to our delight. Several weeks have passed since the first meeting, which was also the first conference game for both, and yet the core facts remain the same since I last previewed this matchup.
The most significant advantage goes to BYU's offensive attack, the 12th-highest rated in the nation and second-highest in the Big 12. It will go against an Arizona State defense that isn't up to the same standard, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency among Big 12 teams during the conference season. BYU's edge is most pronounced inside the arc, where it has made a league-leading 59 percent of attempts against conference opponents, not good news for Arizona State as it allowed 52 percent in the same period, the fifth-worst in the conference. The dangerous part about the offense is that it's actually just as productive from the perimeter, where three-pointers account for almost 40 percent of its total points, the 16th-highest percentage in the nation. Given its elite production all over the court, it's unsurprising to find that BYU has the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage among all D-1 teams. The Cougars are also relentless on the glass, recording the 66th-highest offensive rebounding percentage, substantially higher than the Sun Devils, 224th in defensive rebounding.
At the other end of the court, the matchup appears relatively even. BYU's defense beats Arizona State's offense in the overall efficiency department, 69 to 89, but we have a tie when focusing on the conference season; both sides ranked 11 in the Big 12. Drilling deeper into the numbers, The Cougars' defense again has superior rankings over the Sun Devils' offense in turnovers, rebounding, free-throw attempts, and steals. Arizona State's only real saving grace is its three-point shooting, having made 34 percent of its attempts against conference opponents while attempting them at the second-highest clip. This is a respectable perimeter attack, but it hasn't been enough to prevent the Sun Devils from losing 11 of 14 games. Offensively, Arizona State ranks in the bottom third of the country in turnovers, rebounding, blocks, and steals, giving them several fundamental areas of concern.
Picking the better team doesn't always go as planned, especially on the road, but offensively, these two teams are in different leagues. The Sun Devils may prove me wrong and win the game by draining 20 threes, or the Cougars might drop over 80 points in an emphatic win, just like several other visiting teams have done in Tempe this season. Given a low spread, I'm taking the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -4.5
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San Francisco 
at Oregon State 
The Dons have lost seven games this season, each one coming outside San Francisco's home arena, the Sobrato Center.
At the same time, the Beavers have suffered two home losses all season. The first was a three-point game against Oregon back in November, and the second was a couple of weeks ago against Saint Mary's. Nobody else has beaten Oregon State at Gill Coliseum, not even Gonzaga, which lost 97-89 in overtime.
When the Beavers win, their surprisingly potent offensive attack is usually the reason. Oregon State has the 47th-highest offensive efficiency rating, and it has performed even better during conference play, sporting the third-highest rating among WCC teams. Offensively, Oregon State ranks fourth or better in the conference in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage. The latter two categories are worth highlighting, as the Beavers have significant advantages in both. San Francisco ranks seventh among WCC teams in defensive rebounding and second-to-last in two-point field goal percentage, allowing 56 percent to conference opponents. Then, we have the best for last. Oregon State's most significant edge comes in the free-throw department, where it boasts the highest free-throw attempt rate in the WCC during conference play, a convenient trait in this matchup because the Dons have the second-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Beavers have converted 80 percent from the charity stripe, the ninth-highest mark among all D-1 teams, so this fouling issue is more foreboding than usual.
When playing in the other direction, Oregon State hasn't been as consistent, ranking 150th in defensive efficiency for the whole season, although it's played up to a satisfactory level against conference competition. During league play, the Beavers rank sixth among WCC teams in defensive efficiency, just one spot behind the Dons' offense, which ranks fifth in the same period. Oregon State doesn't cause many turnovers, but at least it's firm on the interior. The Beavers have the third-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the conference and are holding WCC opponents to under 53 percent, the fifth-best mark in the league, giving them a firm presence in the paint. The Dons rank seventh and fifth in the same two offensive categories, giving Oregon State an edge in the battle inside the arc. The Dons like to believe they're a great three-point shooting team, logging the second-highest attempt rate in the WCC, although it's made under 33 percent since the conference season started, the fourth-worst mark. If their long-range shots don't fall, the score might creep away from them, as we've seen in their last four losses, all coming by nine-plus points.
San Francisco got the best of Oregon State when these two teams met at the Sobrato Center back in mid-January, but I believe we'll see a different outcome on Wednesday. The Dons always seem to have a chance based on their relentless three-point shooting, but Oregon State's offense has proven difficult to overcome at Gill Coliseum. I'm going with the Beavers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State -2.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Michigan State +3.5
- BYU -4.5
- Oregon State -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
