AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: DJ Ready to Roll Pebble

Although Jim Nance would say we are about a quarter into the new season, we all know that we are just one month in and if things continue down this path, it's going to be one wacky season. It's not that we haven't had strong champions – Gary Woodland has been a solid golfer for years and Jon Rahm won just a couple weeks ago, but neither were easy to spot before they won. In other words, the winners we've had to this point haven't exactly been the ones we expected ... or at least, that I expected.

When forecasting the week ahead on the PGA Tour, a few factors come into play, but course history and recent play are the tools most commonly used. If you've followed this column over the years, you know that I'm a big fan of course history, not so much that I'll ignore recent play, but my tough calls are generally decided by how a guy has played on a given course.

With that in mind, I can say without question, the start of this PGA Tour season has been the most difficult to predict in quite a while. It certainly didn't help that the overwhelming favorite last week, Hideki Matsuyama, withdrew with a wrist injury. Beyond that, though, Jon Rahm at the Farmers, Webb Simpson at Phoenix, Jimmy Walker at the Sony, Bill Haas at the Career Builder, all great track records, all huge disappointments.

Maybe it's a sign that it's time for me to change. After all, we are almost a quarter into the new season and this trend is hard to ignore. Then again, maybe it's just a small quirk and everything will even out in the end. After all, we are just a month into the new season.

This week: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, Calif.

Last Year: Jordan Spieth shot a final-round 70 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Kelly Kraft.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Dustin Johnson

This will be a great test to see if this season is going to continue down an unpredictable path. DJ has dominated here, yet we have no idea about his form as he hasn't played in a while. DJ has seven top-10s here, including two wins and three top-4 finishes in his last four starts. It's awful early to use a big gun like DJ, but it's a pretty good spot to do so.

Jon Rahm

I have to admit, I was happy that Rahm did not win last week, just a week after letting me down as my one-and-done pick. But I'm past the anger now ... I think. Anyhow, Rahm has a strong combination of recent play and track record as his form is solid, and he placed in the top-5 here last year in his first start at this event.

Jason Day

Speaking of a strong combination of recent play and track record, Day might be at the top of the list as he won on the PGA Tour just two weeks ago and has three top-10s in his last five starts here. Again, a little risky burning Day this early, but he has a real chance to win this week.

Brandt Snedeker

Another test of course history, but at a lower level. Snedeker has a tremendous track record at this event with two wins and a top-5 in his last five starts. He hasn't been himself the last couple years, so don't expect a win, but he's certainly capable of a top-10 or even a top-5 if everything falls right.

Pat Perez

Even when his game was in tatters, Perez usually found a way to play well at this event, but now that he's resurrected his career, it will be interesting to see just how well he can do at Pebble Beach. Perez has made 13 of 15 cuts here and finished in the top 15 three times in his last four starts.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Troy Merritt

I can't fault anyone for wanting to play this event. After all, Pebble Beach is one of the most historic courses on the planet. But if he misses the cut again this year, Merritt might want to think about skipping this one next year. Merritt has teed it up six times here and has yet to make a single cut.

Sangmoon Bae

Bae is having trouble re-adjusting to life on the PGA Tour as he's made just one cut since returning full-time last fall. Prior to his year off, Bae showed a lot of promise, and hopefully he'll get to that point, but for now he's officially of no use for fantasy purposes.

Chez Reavie

This will be a good test of the track record theory on the opposite side as Reavie comes in off a great performance last week, yet he's never played well at this event. Reavie has eight starts here and has never cracked the top-25. He's also missed the cut in half of those starts.

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman had a fabulous season last year and even while he was playing well, he couldn't manage to make the cut at this event. That shouldn't have been a surprise though as he's never really played well here. Hoffman missed the cut in four of his nine starts here, including three of his last four.

Adam Scott

Scott is coming off on one of his worst seasons in more than a decade and so far this season, he's yet to inspire much confidence. Scott likely will find his old form at some point this season, but it will probably remain hidden for at least one more week as he's only played here once and finished T52.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Hideki Matsuyama (WD) - $0; Season - $1,533,691

This week: Dustin Johnson - I wouldn't normally use a guy of DJ's stature this early in the season, but when you think about it, he has a better chance of winning this week than he does at any major or WGC event this season because of his prowess here and the strength of the field. Don't get me wrong, this field is stacked, but it's not a major or a WGC field.

PGATOUR.COM PICKS

This Week:

Starters: Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Brandt Snedeker, Pat Perez

Bench: Jason Day, Jon Rahm

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Brendan Steele - (T3); Streak - 2

This week: Phil Mickelson - This is the perfect spot for Mickelson in a survivor pool. He's not reliable enough for majors anymore, but he's certainly trustworthy in a spot like this. Mickelson played well last week, and his track record at this event is solid, with 18 made cuts in 21 starts.