This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Four guys are in contention at a PGA Tour event: the best player in the world, the likely second-best player on the planet, a guy who won in November and the 93rd-ranked player in the world. Guess who wins?
You obviously have the answer now, but if you were to venture a guess heading into Sunday, I dare say, not many would have picked the 93rd-ranked player in the world, Brian Harman, to come out on top of Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Pat Perez, but that's exactly what happened. Perhaps it shouldn't have come as such a surprise, though, as Harman was on a roll entering the week with three top-15s in his previous four starts. Then again, beating both DJ and Rahm, when they are both playing at a high level, is something you just don't expect out of anyone outside of the best in the world. Harman is certainly not among the best in the world now, but he's building a pretty nice foundation.
The question is where does he go from here. This isn't Harman's first win — he picked up his first victory on the PGA Tour in 2014 at the John Deere Classic — but he failed to take the next step after that win, dropping from $2.4 million in earnings in 2014 to $1.5 the following year and $1.2 the year after that. At 30-years old and now with his second PGA Tour win, this is the perfect time to take that next
Four guys are in contention at a PGA Tour event: the best player in the world, the likely second-best player on the planet, a guy who won in November and the 93rd-ranked player in the world. Guess who wins?
You obviously have the answer now, but if you were to venture a guess heading into Sunday, I dare say, not many would have picked the 93rd-ranked player in the world, Brian Harman, to come out on top of Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Pat Perez, but that's exactly what happened. Perhaps it shouldn't have come as such a surprise, though, as Harman was on a roll entering the week with three top-15s in his previous four starts. Then again, beating both DJ and Rahm, when they are both playing at a high level, is something you just don't expect out of anyone outside of the best in the world. Harman is certainly not among the best in the world now, but he's building a pretty nice foundation.
The question is where does he go from here. This isn't Harman's first win — he picked up his first victory on the PGA Tour in 2014 at the John Deere Classic — but he failed to take the next step after that win, dropping from $2.4 million in earnings in 2014 to $1.5 the following year and $1.2 the year after that. At 30-years old and now with his second PGA Tour win, this is the perfect time to take that next step.
Many golfers have been where Harman is now, and while some are well known names now, many are not. It all depends on what Harman does next.
This week: The PLAYERS Championship - TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course), Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Last Year: Jason Day shot a final-round 71 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Kevin Chappell.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Sergio Garcia
I'm a little hesitant to take Garcia off of a major win, after all, we know Garcia has made the rounds on the talk show circuit and has been spotted at several other events over the last month, but we don't know how much he's focused on his game in that time. That said, this should be a place where he can slide back in with little trouble. Garcia has a fantastic track record at this event with a win, two runner-ups and a third-place.
Rory McIlroy
It took Rory some time to find his groove here. He missed the cut at this event three times before making it to the weekend. But during the last four years, he's figured out this course. McIlroy has finished in the top 12 in four consecutive starts, three of which has been top-10s. His form is good, and he knows how to get around Sawgrass, something not everyone in the field can say (looking at you DJ).
Francesco Molinari
Molinari was atop the leaderboard much of last week, and while he was unable to close, I like where his game is. Add to that, his track record at this event, which includes top-10s in his last two starts and you have the making of a good "under the radar" pick this week.
Rickie Fowler
Fowler picked up the biggest win of his career here in 2015 and while he missed the cut here last year, we can probably chalk that up to being a defending champ, which is more difficult for some than others. Fowler is not a reliable pick at this event, but he has a lot of upside. In addition to his win in 2015, he also picked up a runner-up finish in 2012.
Dustin Johnson
Johnson's placement on this list should give you an idea of how important track record is at this event. If it were anyone else with a track record like Johnson has here, he would have no chance of making this list, but DJ is at a different level, and I'm not sure even Sawgrass can slow him down.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson is coming off a good showing last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, and his game has been decent this season, but for whatever the reason, he's really struggled on this course the last four years. In fact, Mickelson hasn't played the weekend here since 2012 and hasn't finished inside the top 20 since his win in 2008.
Jason Kokrak
Kokrak has proven to be a pretty good professional the last few years, but it is highly unlikely that he gets anything accomplished this week. Kokrak has teed it up at this event four times and has yet to make it to the weekend.
Wesley Bryan
After a rough start to his PGA Tour career last fall, Bryan has done much to prove himself this season, but he's still new to life on the PGA Tour and might be in the midst of a rut. Bryan was on fire a month back, but outside his win at the RBC Heritage, he really hasn't played well. Throw in that he's a first-timer here and it probably equates to a poor showing this week.
Webb Simpson
Simpson is having a nice season, but even good form probably won't be enough to overcome his inability to get around this course. Simpson has teed it up here seven times and has carded only one top-15 finish. He missed the cut four times and finished in the 60s twice. There's just no reason to think he'll play well this week.
Paul Casey
Casey is generally a guy you can trust in bigger events, but The Players is the exception to that rule. Casey has played this event 10 times and has only made the cut in three of those starts. Casey played well enough here last year to earn a top-25, so maybe he's starting to figure out Sawgrass, but one start does not a trend make.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Kevin Tway (T5) - $273,750; Season - $6,098,316
This week: Rickie Fowler - The purse is simply too big this week to take a chance on the lesser player, so I'm going with Fowler, who I don't plan on using during a major this season, yet is at a high enough level to trust in this spot. Fowler has as much upside this week as anyone in the field, and after a missed cut here last year, I expect a solid effort.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 2,246
Rank: 21,762
This Week:
Group A: Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy
Group B: Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari
Group C: Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Kevin Kisner - (MC); Streak - 0
This week: Sergio Garcia - My one-and-done pick came down to Fowler and Garcia and while I like them both, I'm just a little unsure about Garcia's state of mind entering this week. That said, his track record here is so strong that even if he's a little out of it mentally, he should make the cut.
