Weekly PGA Preview: Valero Texas Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio Oaks Course
San Antonio, TX

The PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for another edition of the long-running Valero Texas Open.

Before we get to San Antonio, some thoughts on Houston. Let's start with the winner, Min Woo Lee, who captured his first PGA Tour win and started what could be a fulfillment of his potential. I'm getting way ahead of myself as Lee just picked up win number one, but you can't get win number two until you get number one. Anyhow, Lee has had high expectations since he joined the PGA Tour, but what we saw this past week is what a lot of us thought he could bring to the tour, which is some high-level golf and some energy. The next steps of course are winning signature events and eventually majors, which he has the game to do, but we'll have to wait and see if he parlays this win into bigger things or if he stalls a bit after getting that first big win.

Aside from Lee, we had another developing situation and that's the resurgence of Scottie Scheffler. It's not as if Scheffler fell off the map this season, but he hasn't really been much of a factor through three months…until this past Sunday. While he never led on Sunday, his presence was felt by Lee and a three-way playoff was a possibility as late as the final few shots on Sunday. This doesn't mean that Scheffler is going to go on a magical run again, but it does mean that he's in the mix next week at Augusta. Speaking of which, even though he's playing better, his odds are the Masters are way out of whack. I get it, the books have to protect themselves from the public betting a lot of on a certain golfer, but there is no way that Scheffler should be any lower than 8-1 entering next week, but I digress.

As for this week, we've got tune-up number two, but if it's as good as tune-up number one, then we might be in for a treat. I thought that the top players might not be locked-in this past week with the Masters on the horizon, but that wasn't the case as both Scheffler and Rory McIlroy played very well. Hopefully we can get similar efforts from the favorites this time around.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Akshay Bhatia shot a final round 67 on his way to a playoff victory over Denny McCarthy.

FAVORITES

Ludvig Aberg (12-1) 

A lot of expectations have been heaped upon Aberg's shoulders and now that he's won a signature event, those expectations are only going to increase. He's no stranger to being the favorite, so that shouldn't bother him this week, but he is in a bit of a new situation as a real major contender next week at Augusta. Does that mean he'll be peaking ahead to next week? As I mentioned earlier, that wasn't the case for the seasoned vets in Houston, so I'm going to assume that Aberg will also be focused on this week and not next week. If that's the case, then 12-1 seems like a pretty decent value.  

Tommy Fleetwood (16-1)

Fleetwood is having a nice season, but he's had plenty of nice seasons over the years and it's somehow never resulted in a win on the PGA Tour. Credit to Fleetwood, his lack on wins has yet to affect his play as he continues to give himself chances, but you have to wonder where the value is on someone who's yet to win. There aren't many threats in this field however, so if he can get in a good spot again on the weekend, he certainly can win, but at 16-1, I wouldn't make this play. Fleetwood has played this event once, which resulted in a T7 this past year.  

Corey Conners (16-1)

With over $3 million in earnings already this season, it's safe to say that Conners is already off a good start in 2025, but he has a chance to turn that good start into a great start with another win this week. Conners won this event in 2019 and 2023 and considering his current form, he's got a great chance to get his third here. Conners enters San Antonio on a streak of three consecutive top-10s, two of which were at signature events.

THE NEXT TIER

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

Spieth is getting close. Not necessarily close to winning, but close to the point where he can contend again. Why take someone who's not close to winning you might say, well, if you're in contention, anything can happen, so first things first, let's get him back in contention. If that's to happen, it will likely be here or next week at Augusta. Spieth has had plenty of success at both places, but his track record here might be a bit better than it is at The Masters of late. Spieth won this event in 2021 and finished runner-up in 2015. He's also sprinkled a couple more top-10s in there over his eight starts.                          

Akshay Bhatia (25-1)

For second week in a row, the defending champ looks like a solid option. This past week Stephan Jaeger wasn't able to successfully defend, but he did play well and I'm expecting Bhatia to do the same. Well, not exactly the same, I'm hoping he can win, especially at this price. Bhatia's win this past year was unexpected as he didn't have a strong track record heading into the event, but now that he's found his groove here, he should have a decent chance at defending. Bhatia's most recent start was at THE PLAYERS, where he finished third.  

Denny McCarthy (28-1)

There aren't a lot of good options in the mid-range this week as no one seems to have good form and a solid track record here, but McCarthy comes pretty close. McCarthy finished runner-up here a year ago and he has two additional top-10s in five starts total. His form isn't great heading into this week, but he did post top-20s in his two most recent starts at signature events.  

LONG SHOTS

Bud Cauley (50-1)         

Cauley has played his way back onto the PGA Tour and he looks to keep his momentum going this week. This will be a crucial week for Cauley to see if he has lasting power as he's now a couple weeks removed from his mini hot streak that saw him retain his playing privileges for the rest of the year. If he can play well in San Antonio, perhaps he can turn this hot streak into the new norm and become a top-50-type player going forward. If not, then there's no telling where he ends up at the end of the year. 

Charley Hoffman (80-1)             

We're talking long shots, right? Hoffman hasn't won in a while, but he does know how to win and knows how to win here. If he's ever going to win again on the PGA Tour, it will be at this event. Hoffman won this event in 2017, which is a while back of course, but he did post runner-ups in 2019 and 2021. His form isn't great, but perhaps getting back to this event will change that.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Corey Conners – Conners looks like the perfect pick this week. He's got the form, and he's got the track record. The problem of course is that almost everyone will be on him. Aberg is out of the question as you need to save him for the majors, or a signature event and Fleetwood is also a guy that better used at a bigger event.      

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Akshay Bhatia – Bhatia should also be popular this week as he's won here before as his form is solid. The reason his ownership might be down is the fact that he's defending, but I wouldn't let that dissuade you from taking him. He'll be fine, and I'm fairly certain he won't be looking past this event.  

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Denny McCarthy – I'm expecting a lot of concentrated ownership on Conners and Spieth this week, which doesn't leave much for the rest of the field, so this is your opportunity to get someone like McCarthy at a great time. McCarthy finished runner-up at this event a year ago, and while his form isn't as great as some others right now, he's certainly capable of playing some really good golf.

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau – It's not often that I have to go this far down the odds chart to find someone to avoid, but that's the case this week as the golfers in front of Finau are either good plays or not up to the standard of avoidance. Anyhow, Finau gets the double-whammy this week as his form is not very good entering the week and his track record here is lacking. He is a big name however, which might draw in some OAD players, but I'd simply just wait him out and take him later in the season when his form is sure to return.  

This Week: Corey Conners – I thought about going with Spieth in this spot, but Conners seems like the better play. Even though he's bound to be on a lot of OAD teams this week, sometimes you just have to make the right play and that looks to be Conners. Conners has won this event twice and his form suggests he could make that a trifecta when the week is done.      

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Corey Conners ($11,800)
Middle Range: Daniel Berger ($10,400)
Lower Range: Alejandro Tosti ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Corey Conners – No reason not to double-up here, as the one thing you are looking for the week before a major is a guy who is focused on the task at hand. That shouldn't be an issue for Conners this week as he's won this event twice already and with his current form, he should be licking his chops. Besides, he doesn't need to win, he just needs to make it to the weekend.