Wells Fargo Championship: Putting Wins for Harman

Even before Brian Harman won on Sunday, he was a good pick for DFS play in the Wells Fargo Championship. Even if he hadn't won, Harman would've been a good pick. And as a winner at $6,700, well, wow, he was a jackpot pick.

We didn't pick him.

Shortly before submitting our RotoWire Value Picks last Tuesday, we noticed a tweet touting Harman. We checked the data and, sure enough, it made sense. There was an argument to be made. But we often find that second-guessing ourselves blows up in our face, so we stood pat. There were 156 golfers, after all. What are the chances that any one, even a good statistical play, would thrive?

So seeing Harman climb the leaderboard on the weekend left a queasy feeling in our stomachs. It happens. To all of us. (We also saw a self-congratulatory tweet for picking Grayson Murray. On Thursday. The first-round leader ended up tied for 63rd, thank you very much.)

Very often we see guys that others touted, that we dismissed, tank. It happens both ways. How many times has one of us said, "I almost picked that guy!" As my childhood neighbor in Brooklyn Richie Seidman used to say, "Almost doesn't count. But it almost counts."

In past discussions with some fantasy legends in and around RotoWire, we learned that if you do your homework, do your due diligence, you've done well. Even if the pick doesn't pan out. It's sound advice for all of us. It's sports, and unless it's wrestling, the outcome is not predetermined. When world-class golfers Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm were the top three names on the leaderboard on the back-nine on Sunday, who would've picked Harman, even though he was right behind them?

We didn't have a good week in our RotoWire Value Picks. Horrible, in fact. But we made just enough good plays to make us think we did something right. That our logic was sound. Always take that with you into your next week's plays.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Brian Harman

With a birdie putt of some 28 feet on 18 on Sunday, needing it to fall to win the tournament, many people still wouldn't have picked Harman. A miss and he goes to a playoff with Johnson and Pat Perez, and perhaps Rahm, who was still on the course. Harman is a premier putter, but 28 feet to win a title? Of course, it shockingly went in. Playing on a new course, Eagle Point, we had less info to go on than usual. The gameplan was: Pick guys who were playing well along with considerations for greens in regulation, scrambling and putting. Harman surely was playing well, with top-15s in three of his previous four starts. His GIR/strokes gained tee-to-green was so-so, his scrambling was decent and his putting average/strokes gained putting was outstanding. Surely a good argument could made to pick him, especially at the DraftKings long-shot price of $6,700 and in a weak field. Plus he already had eight top-25s on the season. We saw on Twitter that Harman was the 31st most-tagged golfer on the week. So some of you, not a lot of you, had him. If you did, give yourself a hand.

Dustin Johnson

When Harman was standing over that 28-footer, a lot of people probably were thinking: Dang, DJ is gonna win again! He didn't, but Johnson answered every question about the back injury he suffered just before the Masters. He didn't win a fourth straight tournament, but he takes a shared second place into this week's Players Championship. Interestingly enough, Johnson has never even had a sniff of success at TPC Sawgrass. He's never even finished top-25. And it would be a surprise if he's not the top price on the DK board.

Pat Perez

It's clear by now, if it wasn't already, that Perez is a different golfer this year. Not only is his injured shoulder now sound, but his psyche seems in a better place. One of the Tour's top hotheads has calmed down. One of the Tour's top West Coast specialists has taken his game on the road. Granted, this was a weak field, but Perez's T2 gives him a fourth top-20 in his past five starts, and all but one of them has been east of the Mississippi.

Patrick Reed

Reed has had a horrible season, and he had blamed it at least in part on his clubs, saying a few weeks back that the lie and loft were off. It sure seemed credible when he took the lead into the back-nine on Sunday. But playing in the final group, he bogeyed four of his last nine holes to tumble into a tie for 12th. It still was his best finish since January. This week, Reed jumps way up in class at The Players, alongside almost every top-50 golfer and where he's missed the cut two out of three tries.

Kevin Tway

The first high finish could be lucky. The second could be chalked up to a team format. The third? Well, Tway surely seems to have flipped a switch. He tied for third at San Antonio and did it again with partner Kelly Kraft at New Orleans. Now he just tied for fifth at the Wells Fargo. Tway would probably like to keep on playing, but he won't be in the field at TPC Sawgrass. And sometimes, a week off just ruins a guy's momentum. Stay tuned.

Smylie Kaufman

To call Kaufman the Ringo of the famed Bro-cation quartet with Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas may be generous, not to mention a knock on Ringo. We've seen the three superstar golfers – along with Kaufman – chronicle their spring vacations on social media the past two years. We wondered: Does the struggling Kaufman even pay for anything alongside those multimillionaires? Maybe if they vacationed this coming week he would've, after his first top-10 and even top-25 of the season. Kaufman tied for fifth at Eagle Point, by far his best showing among 14 starts. He had been battling an injury, but still this was a weak field. Consider it a good first step for Kaufman, who now gets to take a second step this week at The Players.

J.T. Poston

The rookie has not missed a cut since January. That's nine straight cashes, including six top-30s after a T24 at the Wells Fargo. Poston's price was fairly high at $7,700, but that's considering the field. Still, the finish justified the price and our play (he was a value pick). Poston hasn't been in the biggest tournaments, but he's succeeded in some good fields, too (Riviera, Honda, Valspar).

John Peterson

Peterson tumbled down the leaderboard on the weekend to tie for 36th. He's a former star golfer at LSU who has battled multiple injuries as a pro. If he could only get healthy … and he appears to be now. At $6,600, he was a good play. His price will not be rising without more good finishes, so as a golfer with a good short game, he should continue to be a low-priced option. His putting is woeful, though.

Hunter Mahan

There's been a Hunter Mahan sighting! And not at the airport on Friday! The former top-five golfer who is amid one of the biggest free falls in OWGR history made his fifth cut in 15 tries this season. And his T52 was his top finish of the season. Mahan is 210th in the points race in the final year with his Tour card, short of using a lifetime exemption. Or playing better.

Webb Simpson/Carl Pettersson

These two guys were the Eagle Point experts, the two guys who'd have a distinct advantage over the field based on their knowledge of the first-time tournament course. Pettersson, a member, even holds the course record at 62. So both shot 148 to miss the weekend by three strokes. Pettersson has been horrid for a while now, but Simpson? No excuse.

John Daly

That was fun. Champions Tour win. No fantasy implications. Just fun to watch. And good for golf.

RotoWire Value Picks

Last week: One top-10, three top-25s, six missed cuts.

This week: One top-5, four top-25s, eight missed cuts.

A couple of bright spots but clearly our worst week of the season. Rahm was our top guy and he delivered as he does every week now, tying for fourth. Among other Tier 1 plays, Paul Casey paid off at T12, Adam Scott didn't at T36 and then there was Simpson. In Tier 2, a blood bath. Bill Haas, Wesley Bryan and Kevin Kisner trunk-slammed and Daniel Berger tied for 36th. In Tier 3, Poston was strong at T24 and Laird limped home at T42. But that's more than could be said for William McGirt and David Hearn. Let's just say that McGirt lived up to the "Mc" in his name. Among the long shots, the $6,100-priced Brandon Hagy at T18 was our proudest moment, with Peterson T36. Andres Gonzales and normally reliable Stewart Cink missed the cut.

In our DraftKings cash game, we placed 56th out of 57. Casey, Simpson, Kisner, Poston, McGirt and Cink for 229 points. It's remarkable even one player finished lower than we did.