DraftKings MMA: UFC Fortaleza Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Fortaleza Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

A legend of the sport hosts an up-and-comer in his home country of Brazil for a UFC Fight Night event Saturday in Fortaleza.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

(Please note that DraftKings has altered their scoring system. The new point values are listed below and the rosters will now expand from 5 to 6 fighters).

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Middleweight

Vitor Belfort (25-12-0) v. Kelvin Gastelum (14-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Belfort ($6,700), Gastelum ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Belfort (+340), Gastelum (-425)
Odds to Finish: -925

While this figures to be a fairly lopsided fight in my opinion, it's smart matchmaking on the part of Sean Shelby. A legendary fighter in Belfort gets to compete in his home country in what may very well be his last opportunity to face a high-quality fighter.

Belfort has lost three of his last four fights and his only win over that span was against Dan Henderson. He has been knocked out in all three of those losses. Vitor still looks angry and energetic for about three or four minutes, but then the roof caves his. He doesn't have the cardio or foot speed to throw power combinations for any sustained length of time. If he doesn't score a lucky early knockout, he has no chance of beating a quality opponent. Going for broke early on in hopes of a quick finish is actually a smart decision. I doubt Vitor is actually doing it because he realizes his shortcomings, but I agree with the game plan.

Gastelum had difficulty making the 171-pound welterweight limit over the course of his career, but he moved up to middleweight in December and destroyed a tough veteran in Tim Kennedy. He unloaded with repeated combinations and he looked great defensively whenever Kennedy managed to get the upper hand. It has never been a lack of talent for Gastelum. Whenever he shows up in shape and ready to fight, he looks fantastic. The key to his game is his striking, but Gastelum is a quality wrestler and has better mat skills than he gets credit for.

Gastelum is a top-five talent in the UFC's middleweight division. I'm not sure he will ever reach his ceiling, but he's far better than Belfort at this point in their respective careers. I expect his power to overwhelm Vitor early. Even with the high salary, I think Gastelum is a terrific DK play here.

THE PICK: Gastelum

Co-Main Event – Light Heavyweight

Shogun Rua (24-10-0) v. Gian Villante (15-7-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Rua ($8,500), Villante ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Rua (-140), Villante (+120)
Odds to Finish: -175

This probably isn't the fight that Shogun was looking for, but considering it appeared he was on the verge of retirement not all that long ago, he should take what's offered. Rua is now 35 years old, but he fought just once in 2015 (Little Nog) and once in 2016 (Corey Anderson). The days of Shogun being in the Light Heavyweight Championship picture are long gone, but he isn't completely washed up. He has always had a questionable chin, which is a problem against a hard hitter such as Villante, but he figures to have a significant cardio advantage and he will have the Brazilian fans behind him.

Villante is an athletic freak who has never lived up to his potential. He's a terrific wrestler, but he never wrestles. As a former Division I All-American football player, he should still be in terrific shape, but his cardio is terrible. He hits hard and he has shown an ability to take a monumental beating, but to say he has been a career underachiever would be a gross understatement. Villante is 5-4 in his nine career UFC fights, but there have been far more poor efforts than quality ones.

Considering Villante has shown zero ability to fight with any pace after the first round, going for broke early on in hopes of a finish is probably a decent idea. Between his power and Rua's questionable chin, a quick knockout is certainly a possibility. However, if this fight sees the second round, I would wager that Villante is finished.

This seems likely to be Villante's last chance to face a high-level opponent. All things being equal, I would probably pick Shogun to win, but this isn't a card where I like a whole bunch of underdogs. For that reason and that reason only, I'm picking Villante to earn the biggest win of his career.

THE PICK: Villante

Lightweight

Edson Barboza (18-4-0) v. Beneil Dariush (14-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Barboza ($8,700), Dariush ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Barboza (-160), Dariush (+140)
Odds to Finish: +140

This is quite the underrated fight. It has gotten very little publicity, but it's going to have a massive impact on the future of the UFC's lightweight division.

Barboza has scored back-to-back unanimous decision victories over Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis. He won both fights with ease. Neither man could handle Barboza's constant pressure on the feet. He is perhaps the most vicious kicker in the entire company and the leg kicks that he lands with regularity often leave his opposition hobbled and unable to defend themselves. Barboza has long been underrated, but he is finally living up to his massive potential.

Dariush has won seven of his last eight. His style of fighting is methodical, bordering on dull, but he has been extremely successful. Dariush's submission skills make up for the lack of power in his hands, but he is going to have to make an attempt to threaten Barboza on the feet if he hopes of winning this fight. Dariush is also very good at mixing in a takedown or two in every fight, but Barboza's career takedown defense is an exceptional 86 percent, so that would appear to be the wrong route for Kings MMA product to take.

Dariush is really good, but I think there is a decent chance that Barboza overwhelms him on the feet. Since a Dariush knockout is extremely unlikely, a win of his would have to come via submission or decision. I know Barboza can defend himself on the mat, and a decision win doesn't help DK owners much. So, to recap: not only do I like Barboza to win, but I'm not crazy about Dariush as a dart throw, underdog DraftKings play.

THE PICK: Barboza

Lightweight

Francisco Trinaldo (21-4-0) v. Kevin Lee (14-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Trinaldo ($7,900), Lee ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Trinaldo (+135), Lee (-155)
Odds to Finish: +125

One of the most underrated stories in all of MMA over the last couple years is the career resurgence of the now 38-year-old Trinaldo. He has come out of nowhere to run of a seven-fight winning streak. Several of the wins have come over decent opponents (Paul Felder, Ross Pearson, Norman Parke), so it's not as if you can say the streak is a total fluke. Trinaldo has a solid all-around game, although he relies more on volume in the striking department as opposed to pure power.

Lee is one of the best athletes on the entire roster. He keeps himself in elite shape and he has shown a constant ability to adapt to whatever challenges are thrown his way during a fight. He has a 7-2 career record in just over three years with the company. Lee's background is in wrestling and that's where I think he is going to have the biggest advantage. Trinaldo does not possess great takedown defense (58 percent) and Lee is not the guy you want on top of you for an entire fight.

Trinaldo continues to defy the odds, and he has more than earned his shot to face quality competition, but I think the roof is going to cave in on him sooner rather than later. Guys like Felder, Pearson and Parker prefer to stand and bang. Lee, on the other hand, is going to make Trinaldo work for everything. I think facing a top-flight athlete is pretty much a worse case scenario for Trinaldo. He gets one on Saturday.

THE PICK: Lee

Other Bouts

Flyweight

Jussier Formiga (19-4-0) v. Ray Borg (10-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Formiga ($8,400), Borg ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Formiga (-135), Borg (+115)
Odds to Finish:+166
THE PICK: Borg

Women's Bantamweight

Bethe Correia (10-2-0) v. Marion Reneau (7-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Correia ($8,000), Reneau ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Correia (+100), Reneau (-120)
Odds to Finish:+170
THE PICK: Reneau

Welterweight

Alex Oliveira (15-3-1, 2NC) v. Tim Means (26-7-1, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira ($7,200), Means ($9,000)
Vegas Odds:Oliveira (+210), Means (-250)
Odds to Finish: -190
THE PICK: Means

Welterweight

Sergio Moraes (11-3-1) v. Davi Ramos (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Moraes ($8,800), Ramos ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Moraes (-220), Ramos (+180)
Odds to Finish: -110
THE PICK: Moraes

Bantamweight

Rani Yahya (23-8-0, 1NC) v. Joe Soto (17-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Yahya ($8,600), Soto ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (-160), Soto (+140)
Odds to Finish: +175
THE PICK: Yahya

Lightweight

Michel Prazeres (21-2-0) v. Josh Burkman (29-14-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Prazeres ($8,900), Burkman ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Prazeres (-245), Burkman (+205)
Odds to Finish: +135
THE PICK: Prazeres

Featherweight

Rony Jason (15-6-0, 1NC) v. Jeremy Kennedy (9-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Jason ($8,100), Kennedy ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Jason (-110), Kennedy (-110)
Odds to Finish: -130
THE PICK: Kennedy

Middleweight

Garreth McLellan (13-5-0) v. Paulo Borrachinha (3-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McLellan ($7,100), Borrachinha ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: McLellan (+225), Borrachinha (-265)
Odds to Finish:-400
THE PICK: Borrachinha

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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