This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 296 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC 296 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight Championship
(C) Leon Edwards (21-3-0, 1NC) v. Colby Covington (17-3-0)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($8,200), Covington ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Edwards (-155), Covington (+130)
The way Edwards won the UFC Welterweight Championship in August 2022 -- a head kick to the head of Kamaru Usman with 56 seconds left in a fight in which he was being dominated -- was plenty fluky. What wasn't a fluke was Edwards' brilliant effort in the rematch between the two this past March. Leon appeared to be a step ahead of the former division king the entire way, and the final scores (48-46, 48-46, 47-47) would have been far more lopsided had Edwards not been docked a point by referee Herb Dean for a Round 3 fence grab. It's clear as day Leon -- who hasn't lost since December 2015 -- is one of the best welterweights in the world today.
We haven't seen Covington since March 2022, at which time he was beating up an overmatched Jorge Masvidal. Colby is just 2-2 in his past four bouts, with both defeats coming against Usman in title fights, but he knows how to get heat and remains a controversial figure, so it's no surprise the UFC is pushing him right back into the championship mix here. Colby's very good, but is he great? He'll be 36 years of age next February, and once he steps in the Octagon on Saturday, he'll have competed just once per year dating back to 2020.
It's no secret that Colby relies almost entirely on his wrestling game and gas tank for success. He averages 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, while landing 45 percent of his attempts, a very high number. In the five-round main event against Masvidal, Covington connected on 6-of-15 attempts, good for 16:14 worth of control time, a ridiculous number, even for a 25-minute fight. Now, wrestling isn't Masvidal's strong suit, and the going will be much tougher against Edwards, but it shows how dominant Colby can be at times.
Leon is clearly the cleaner, more technical striker. He's also the much bigger man, entering with a three-inch edge in height and two-inch edge in reach. Whenever this fight is at distance, it will favor the champion in a major way. Colby is tough, and we've seen him taking a beating on the feet on countless occasions, but there's zero doubt prolonged striking exchanges favor Edwards.
It's worth noting that Edwards struggled to defend the takedown in BOTH fights against Usman. Combined, Kamaru landed 9-of-27 attempts over the course of the two bouts. The fact Leon was dragged to the mat on four separate occasions and still won going away in the second fight gives you an idea of how dominant he was on the feet.
The one thing we know about Covington is that even if the first and second takedown attempts fail, there will be a third and fourth forthcoming. Heck, he failed on ALL 11 of his tries in the second Usman fight. He has to stick with the game plan here, as it's his clearest -- and potentially only -- path to victory.
The valid concerns here are that Covington is getting up there in age and has rarely fought. You're essentially betting on his grappling and cardio for success, and those are no sure things as a fighter ages.
That said, I think Covington is a better wrestler than Usman, and I'm not so sure Leon is going to be able to get back to his feet if he is planted on his back. Perhaps I'd feel different if Colby had durability issues, but he doesn't. I think he can do enough to grind out a decision. I'd be shocked if this is anything but close and competitive for the full 25 minutes. Flip a coin.
UFC 296 PICK: Covington
Co-Main Event - Flyweight Championship
(C) Alexandre Pantoja (26-5-0) v. Brandon Royval (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Pantoja ($8,600), Royval ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-180), Royval (+150)
I understand there was a significant lack of better options, but this fight makes little sense to me. Pantoja and Royval met in August 2021, with the current champ winning via rear-naked choke early in Round 2.
Pantoja won the belt via split decision in a back-and-forth war with Brandon Moreno this past July. It was a truly brutal fight in which the two combined to land 276 significant strikes. I thought Pantoja deserved the victory, but I fully admit he appeared to be on auto pilot at certain points during this bout, and it's remarkable he was able to hang in there. The 33-year-old Brazilian has won four straight and five of six dating back to December 2019.
I'm not quite sure what Royval has done to earn a title shot. Yes, he's won three in a row since the first Pantoja fight including the last two via stoppage, but those victories came against Rogerio Bontorin, Matt Schnell and Matheus Nicolau. Royval is a big flyweight (5-foot-9) and fights with physicality, but it sure seems as if he's giving up a ton to Pantoja in terms of pure physical gifts.
It took until early in Round 2 for Pantoja to close the show in the first fight, but he was in firm control the entire way. In a bout which lasted a shade under seven minutes, Alexandre connected on 3-of-6 takedown attempts, good for 2:51 worth of control time. This is a common issue for Royval, who has given up multiple takedowns in four of his eight UFC bouts. Heck, in his split decision win over Bontorin, the latter landed eight tries on nine attempts. All in all, Brandon is sporting a woeful 39 percent takedown defense, and while he does have nine career wins via submission, Pantoja isn't the type of guy you want to be rolling around on the mat with.
Toss all the evidence from the first fight aside, and this is still an easy pick.
Pantoja hits harder, is a better technical striker, has displayed elite durability and has a huge edge in terms of wrestling. In fact, he looks like a value play when it comes to both the DK salaries and Vegas odds. I expected him to be more in the area of -300, at a minimum. I have zero reason to think this fight will be any different than their first bout.
UFC 296 PICK: Pantoja
Welterweight
Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0-0) v. Stephen Thompson (17-6-1)
DK Salaries: Rakhmonov ($9,700), Thompson ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Rakhmonov (-520), Thompson (+390)
Set to turn 41 years of age next February, Thompson has been on the sidelines for about 54 weeks. He was due to face Michel Pereira in late-July, however the latter missed weight by three pounds, and as is Thompson's right, he refused the fight. Unfortunately for Wonderboy, a fight with an overweight Pereira may feel like a walk in the park compared to what's potentially coming here.
Rakhmonov is a perfect 17-0 as a professional, with all 17 wins (8 knockouts, 9 submissions) coming via stoppage. He's fought five times in the UFC, with the last two coming against quality opposition in Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. Simply put, Shavkat is terrifying. He lands plenty of volume (4.45 significant strikes per minute) on the feet and doesn't get hit in return (2.61 significant strikes per minute).
Thompson is one of the best kickboxers in the history of the sport. He landed 178 total strikes in 20 minutes in his last fight, a win over Kevin Holland. His two fights prior were losses to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad in which he gave up 10 takedowns combined between the two appearances.
It goes without saying that Rahkmonov figures to try to get this fight to the mat, the exact game plan every fighter Thompson faces should be employing. Wonderboy is an exceptional athlete, but he's getting up there in age. His 64 percent takedown defense is fair, but he's at real risk of being overwhelmed by his younger, stronger opponent.
Shavkat averages 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes. So while it's not a key aspect of his game, he's certainly going to have the edge on the mat against Thompson, who never wrestles if he can help it.
Regular readers of this column know I have been a Wonderboy supporter for years, but I have zero idea his path to victory here. He's giving up youth, athleticism and size. Thompson is going to have to outpoint Shavkat over the course of 15 minutes to win. He's an inch shorter and giving up two inches in reach to his opponent as well. So, while Rakhmonov may be content to stand and trade blows for short periods at a time, there's no way he's going to allow this to turn into a three-round kickboxing match. It just isn't going to happen.
Thompson caught a lot of flack for letting the Pereira fight fall through, but he essentially said at this stage of his career and where he is at in the rankings, he didn't think it was the right move. You have to respect the decision given the fact he's willing to step into the Octagon here against a guy in Rakhmonov that no one wants to face. Wonderboy isn't looking for the easy way out.
I still think there's plenty of gas left in the tank here, but this is a monumental task for any man at 170 pounds, let alone a soon-to-be 41-year-old.
UFC 296 PICK: Rakhmonov
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson (26-9-0) v. Paddy Pimblett (20-3-0)
DK Salaries: Ferguson ($6,800), Pimblett ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Ferguson (+260), Pimblett (-295)
I am truly shocked the UFC is running Ferguson -- the loser of six fights in a row dating back to May 2020 -- back out there. To Tony's credit, he looked better in his most recent bout against Bobby Green in late-July before being submitted late in Round 3. Set to turn 40 years of age next February, Ferguson's durability is shot. All I can think of is that the UFC sees an opportunity to further enhance a popular young fighter in Pimblett, and they are willing to throw Tony to the wolves one final time to get it done.
There are just a couple problems with that. First of all, Paddy isn't that young. He'll be 29 years of age in January despite having just four UFC bouts under his belt. Secondly, and most importantly, I don't think he's very good. His four wins with the company have come over Luigi Vendramini, Rodrigo Vargas, Jordan Leavitt and Jared Gordon. He looked terrible early on in the Leavitt fight, and literally the entire world thought Gordon deserved the decision in their bout. We've seen what has happened to Paddy's buddy Molly McCann of late once the competition level has been beefed up. I think something similar is forthcoming for Pimblett.
Luckily for Paddy, this has the look of a cake walk matchup for him. It's a stone-cold lock that Ferguson is going to beat himself at this stage of his career. As long as Pimblett doesn't get overwhelmed in the early going, he's eventually going to find openings to land offense of his own. I don't like Paddy's striking -- particularly his defense -- and he's been taken down three times in each of his last two fights, but I'm not sure Tony can take advantage of either at this stage of his career.
I'd be looking to fade Paddy if he was facing literally any opponent other than Ferguson.
I think there's a reason this is the route the UFC decided to go. I'm assuming Paddy is going to be overwhelmed the next time he faces a halfway decent opponent. Tony, at this stage of his career, definitely isn't that. The former is the pick by default.
UFC 296 PICK: Pimblett
Welterweight
Vicente Luque (22-9-1) v. Ian Garry (13-0-0)DK Salaries: Luque ($6,700), Garry ($9,500)Vegas Odds: Luque (+295), Garry (-375)UFC 296 PICK: Garry
Editor's Note: The scheduled fight between Luque and Garry has been removed from the card after Garry came down with an illness and failed to get clearance from UFC doctors.
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Josh Emmett (18-4-0) v. Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0)
DK Salaries: Emmett ($7,300), Mitchell ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Emmett (+185), Mitchell (-220)
UFC 296 PICK: Mitchell
Women's Bantamweight
Irene Aldana (14-7-0) v. Karol Rosa (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Aldana ($8,800), Rosa ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Aldana (-225), Rosa (+185)
UFC 296 PICK: Aldana
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt (13-5-0) v. Brian Kelleher (24-14-0)
DK Salaries: Garbrandt ($9,000), Kelleher ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Garbrandt (-205), Kelleher (+170)
UFC 296 PICK: Garbrandt
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill (9-1-0) v. Ariane Lipski (16-8-0)
DK Salaries: O'Neill ($8,700), Lipski ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: O'Neill (-200), Lipski (+165)
UFC 296 PICK: O'Neill
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield (14-3-1) v. Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1)
DK Salaries: Menifield ($7,100), Jacoby ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Menifield (+210), Jacoby (-260)
UFC 296 PICK: Menifield
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2-0) v. Cody Durden (16-4-1)
DK Salaries: Ulanbekov ($8,300), Durden ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Ulanbekov (-175), Durden (+145)
UFC 296 PICK: Durden
Featherweight
Andre Fili (22-10-0, 1NC) v. Lucas Almeida (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Fili ($8,500), Almeida ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Fili (-170), Almeida (+140)
UFC 296 PICK: Fili
Heavyweight
Martin Buday (13-1-0) v. Shamil Gaziev (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Buday ($8,400), Gaziev ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Buday (-165), Gaziev (+135)
UFC 296 PICK: Buday
Welterweight
Randy Brown (17-5-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (19-4-0)
DK Salaries: Brown ($9,200), Salikhov ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Brown (-260), Salikhov (+210)
UFC 296 PICK: Brown
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 296 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
