Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: TOUR Championship

TOUR Championship 

East Lake Golf Club
East Lake, GA

The PGA Tour heads to East Lake for another edition of the TOUR Championship.

It all comes down to this. 29 men against Scottie Scheffler in a battle royale. It feels like that sometimes, doesn't it? As we look ahead to the final event of the 2025 regular season, the question on my mind is, can anyone beat Scheffler when everything is at stake? The odds makers don't think so, and quite honestly, I don't either.

That's what it's come to on the PGA Tour right now. There are two paths to Scheffler not winning this week. One, he's not on his game, somebody else in the field is on their game and Scheffler finishes inside the top-3 but fails to win or he's really not on his game, somebody else is, and he lands in the top-5. In either scenario, he's in the top-5 and it takes someone else to play out of their mind to win. The scenarios involving Scheffler while on his game all end the same way, with a Scheffler win.

I've told this story before, but it seems relevant again, so I'll regale it another time. When I first started following golf in the mid-90s, there was balance, kind of how it was about 10 years ago on the PGA Tour. Soon after however, Tiger Woods started dominating and the balance was gone.

During this time, when Tiger got the lead, it was over, no one was catching him. That was partially due to his play and partially due to the field giving way as they figured a Woods victory was inevitable. When Tiger's game fell off, the PGA Tour returned to a weird place where even the best players failed to hold onto 36 or 54-hole leads. It felt strange on my end, after all, if you're the best or one of the best, you should close more often than not.

For quite a while, no lead was safe, but with Scheffler on top of his game again, we're back in that spot where you can almost pencil in a victory early on...at least for Scheffler. When Scheffler is in or near the lead, more often than not, it's over and quite honestly, I think the other golfers on the PGA Tour know this and it's starting to have an effect on them. Guys are starting to feel the pressure of Scheffler's game and believe it or not, it might start to get easier for him to win. The more he wins, the more pressure these guys will put on themselves and generally when pressure is applied, bad things happen.

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With that said, I think the younger generation is a bit bolder now than during Tiger's prime when it comes to knocking off the champ and feeling like they can take on this large task, but believing you can do it or simply wanting to do it, doesn't always translate to better play. There are plenty of golfers out there now that can challenge Scheffler any given week, but the more he wins, the less those guys will believe.

Scheffler has clearly been the best golfer on the planet for a few years now and there's no reason to think that won't be the case for the foreseeable future. Much like the greats before him, the challenge will be managing himself, his life, his game, his family, etc…Some before him didn't do a great job of that and their game suffered. Only time will tell how Scheffler goes down in the history of this game, but I have a feeling he'll be amongst the best that ever played when all is said and done.

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LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final-round 67 on his way to a four-stroke, adjusted victory over Collin Morikawa.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (6-4) 

I know, this looks like an adjusted-stroke number, but it's not. In case you weren't aware, the adjusted strokes are gone thankfully, and this tournament is again a real event. With that said, the course history numbers are skewed because the adjusted strokes are included in the results. It doesn't really matter for Scheffler however as he's clearly the favorite this week and considering his game looks good entering this week, he's deservedly a big favorite. Though he needed the adjusted strokes to win at East Lake this past year, he still has the feel of winning out here, which can only help. The odds are short, but it feels like a good play in a 30-man field.

Rory McIlroy (17-2)

McIlroy never threatened this past week, but he did show some glimpses of his best game. Whether that means he can get his game up to speed fully this week is still in question however. What's not in question is his ability to win when his game is on, so if we are looking for guys that can potentially take down Scheffler, McIlroy is certainly on that list. McIlroy has won this event, both with adjusted strokes and without, so he definitely has a feel for this course. The question will be, is his game in a place to win this week after not being there for the past four months.     

Tommy Fleetwood (14-1)

Fleetwood was in a group of three guys as the third-favorite this past week at the BMW, but his continued strong play has moved him into this spot alone. It helped that one of the guys that was the third-favorite this past week, Xander Schauffele, played his way out of this event, but I digress. Fleetwood continues to play well and while I don't think his game will fall off this week, I just can't imagine a scenario where he wins this week. The pressure of a 54-hole lead will likely be too much and how is anyone going to chase down Scheffler is he's in the lead on Sunday?

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Russell Henley (20-1)   

I'm a little surprised that Henley's number is this low entering the week, but there are a couple things to like about him and apparently, the public is aware as well. Henley played well for most of this past week, but like just about everyone in the field not named Scheffler, Burns or MacIntyre, he had a hard time avoiding mistakes. All that to say that I think his game is in the right place right now, he just needs to avoid the big mistakes. As for his track record here, he hasn't played here a lot, but he does have a couple top-5s, one with adjusted strokes and one without.

J.J. Spaun (27-1)

Spaun was not a factor this past week at the BMW, but that doesn't preclude him from being one this week. The reason Spaun is an intriguing option for a win bet is that he's bested Scheffler a couple times over the past few months, something that not many in the field can claim, so if it comes down to Spaun vs. Scheffler on Sunday, there's a chance that Spaun could come out on top. That's the upside, the potential downside is that this will be Spaun's first start at this event.

Sam Burns (30-1)

As someone who was rooting for Scheffler to win this past week, I have to admit that Burns was the guy that scared me on Sunday. Sure, others were closer to start the day, but Burns had the look of a guy who wasn't going to back down if he got close enough to Scheffler. His game fell apart over the final few holes on Sunday, but I like what I saw prior to that. Burns has played this event for the past four years, so he's got plenty of course knowledge, so it will be all about the momentum from this past week carrying into this week. If it carries over, he should be a factor on the weekend.

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LONG SHOTS

Robert MacIntyre (35-1)            

Though he didn't finish like he wanted to this past week at the BMW, MacIntyre put himself in a great spot entering the final round and if given the chance again, I think we might see a different result. MacIntyre had a lot of pressure on him as he teed it up this past Sunday and perhaps if it wasn't Scheffler right behind him, things might have been different. Whatever the case, I'm sure he'll use this past Sunday as a learning experience.        

Akshay Bhatia (60-1)    

Bhatia had some momentum heading into this past weekend, but he failed to capitalize on it. What he did do however as play just well enough to make it into the TOUR Championship. I think there's a feeling that he's playing with house money this week as for a large portion of this past Sunday, it looked like he wouldn't be playing this week. Though he just made the field on the number, Bhatia has been playing fairly well lately, and with the pressure of making the final-30 now gone, perhaps he plays his best golf this week.  

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: J.J. Spaun – There simply can't be many big guns left available in your league, so I'm looking for guys that might have been under the radar most of the season and Spaun fits that bill. When he won at the U.S. Open, it was quite a surprise and even after that win I don't think many OAD players bought into him, so when he finished runner-up at St. Jude, he was probably lightly owned there as well. All of this to say that he's likely going to be quite popular this week.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Robert MacIntyre –Perhaps a lot of OAD players had Bobby Mac at the Scottish Open, but it not, he's probably still available on many teams. Not quite as many as Spaun because after all, MacIntyre did win twice this past year, so it's not like people thought he was a fluke heading into this season. Whatever the case, if you've got him, he's certainly a better play than half the field.                           

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Harry Hall – The first mention of Hall here, who has been playing great over the past couple months. Hall is surely to be available for most OAD teams this week and he'll probably not be all that popular this week either as most OAD players will side with a bigger name, but if you're looking for someone with a lot of momentum heading into this week, then Hall is your guy. 

Buyer Beware: Keegan Bradley – I'm just going to leave Bradley in the same spot as this past week. It's pretty clear that he's got too much to think about right now and perhaps too much pressure to play well at East Lake. Bradley has been under a microscope for the past few months and unfortunately for him, he's been unable to put the playing captain thing to rest by sealing an automatic bid. I still believe he should be playing at the Ryder Cup, but that has no bearing on this week and as such, I think he's a poor play.   

My Pick: Harry Hall – While pressure to make a Ryder Cup team can break an individual, sometimes it can help. In Hall's case specifically, it looks like he's on the outside looking in and that might be providing a little extra motivation. It's one thing to play well because you want to, it's another to play well to spite someone. I'm not sure that's what's going on right now, but it sure does look like Hall is playing with a little something extra right now and I'm sure he would love to make things more complicated for Luke Donald by playing well again this week.    

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($14,000)
Middle Range: Robert MacIntyre ($9,400)
Lower Range: Harry Hall ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES