DraftKings MMA: UFC 209 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 209 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

Update (3/3): The scheduled interim lightweight title fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson has been cancelled after Nurmagomedov was forced to withdraw due to health concerns.

The UFC returns to Vegas for a rematch of an epic contest from UFC 205. Currently, there are 11 fights to construct a DraftKings lineup from.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

(Please note that DraftKings has altered their scoring system. The new point values are listed below and the rosters will now expand from 5 to 6 fighters).

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event - Welterweight Championship

(C) Tyron Woodley (16-3-1) v. Stephen Thompson (13-1-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Woodley ($7,800), Thompson ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Woodley (+140), Thompson (-160)
Odds to Finish: -135

The first fight between these two men back at UFC 205 was so epic that there was no other choice than to book an immediate rematch -- especially since the first contest ended in a draw. We need a definitive winner this time around. As Dana White said on Sportscenter Wednesday morning (regarding Woodley): "You fought to a draw in your last fight. Finish it."

Woodley leaned on his wrestling skills early in the first fight, but he slowly got away from that as the fight progressed. In fact, the one successful takedown he scored in Round 1 was the only one that he attempted for the entire contest. If you were to guarantee to me that Woodley would lean more on his wrestling throughout the course of a potential five-round fight, I would pick him to win. But we didn't see that in the first fight and I'm not entirely convinced we will see it here, either. Also, Woodley had Wonderboy badly, badly hurt in Round 4 of the first fight, and he was unable to put him away. I wonder if his inability to finish Thompson got into his head a bit.

For good portions of the first fight, Wonderboy did what he does the best: he stayed at distance and use his crazy kickboxing skills to pull ahead on the scorecards. If you score the first fight as a whole, Thompson deserved to win, but he was beaten up so badly in Round 4 that it was a minor miracle he was able to see the final bell. I liked Wonderboy's game plan in the first fight, but he needs to be constantly mindful of the one-punch knockout right-hand that the champion possess.

Everything we have seen tells us that these fighters are incredibly evenly matched and there is next to nothing separating one from the other. I'm picking Thompson again for three reasons: First, I'm more confident he can win with volume and placement of combinations as opposed to Woodley landing one shot or shots that ends a fight. Second, Wonderboy appeared to be the much better conditioned fighter in the first fight. He rebounded exceedingly well from the beating he took in Round 4 and was the fresher fighter in the final frame. Third, and most importantly, I've been the conductor of the Wonderboy Hype Train since the beginning and there's no way I'm hopping off now.

THE PICK: Thompson

Co-Main Event - Interim Lightweight Championship

Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0-0) v. Tony Ferguson (23-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($8,900), Ferguson ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-175), Ferguson (+155)
Odds to Finish: -115

It's only early March, but this is as good a fight as the UFC will produce over the course of 2017. The Interim Title tag doesn't do a whole lot for me, but both of these guys deserve to fight for a belt. With all the nonsense that is surrounding Conor McGregor these days, it's anyone's guess when they will get their chance. For that reason, I don't have a problem with hanging the interim tag on this one.

Khabib defeated Michael Johnson in his last bout in November in a fight that was stunningly lopsided given the quality of the competitor standing across the octagon from him. Nurmagomedov has averaged more than six takedowns per fight over the course of his UFC career, and he has defended over 83 percent of the takedowns attempted against him. Simply put, if Khabib gets his hands on you, you're going down. Nurmagomedov's striking arsenal won't overwhelm an opponent, but he is a dominant position so frequently that he rarely gets hit. He is 8-0 in the UFC, although this will be by far his biggest test.

Ferguson is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak that includes victories over Rafael dos Anjos, Edson Barboza and Josh Thomson. His last loss came against Johnson back in May 2012. El Cucuy has improved in every single facet of the game over the last few years. He got hit too much in both the RDA fight and his fight against last-minute replacement Lando Vannata last July, and while Khabib isn't going to overwhelm you with combinations, if he continues to connect with his hands it will make his takedown attempts that much more successful. Ferguson is a wizard on the mat, but Khabib isn't an opponent you want to get into a grappling match with because his body control on the mat is impeccable.

I'm on record as saying that I feel Khabib is the best lightweight in the world, so he's my pick. I would like Ferguson's chances much more if you told me he could successfully defend the takedown and turn this into a kickboxing match. No one has came remotely close to slowing down Nurmagomedov's wrestling game, so while as good as Ferguson is, I can't see him being the first to do so. I also think El Cucuy's submission attempts will largely be cancelled out by Khabib's mat positioning. I don't love Khabib as a DraftKings play, especially at a high price tag, because Ferguson is tough as nails and I could easily see this going the distance. Nonetheless, Khabib deserves to be the favorite.

THE PICK: Nurmagomedov

Middleweight

Rashad Evans (24-5-1) v. Daniel Kelly (12-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Evans ($9,000), Kelly ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Evans (-235), Kelly (+195)
Odds to Finish: +100

This fight means less than nothing in terms of the UFC Middleweight Championship picture, but I am highly intrigued by it for some strange reason. Evans last lost back-to-back fights (Ryan Bader, Glover Teixeira), and he hasn't picked up a win since November 2013 (Chael Sonnen). Evans has spent much of that time injured and it's quite clear he doesn't possess the same explosiveness that he did in his prime. If Evans isn't racking up takedowns on a regular basis, he's going to have an awful hard time winning fights. Evans has never gotten hit much on the feet, but he has never landed all that much, either. A large part of that is due to the fact that he spent a substantial portions of his fights on the mat over the course of his career.

Kelly's UFC run has been truly baffling, although in a positive way. The 39-year-old is 5-1 during his brief run with the promotion. A former four-time Olympian for his native Australia in judo, Kelly only began training MMA in 2012. He doesn't hit hard and he doesn't move well (the later is more due to his age than anything else), but his takedown defense is terrific (80 percent), and that, combined with his world-class judo skills, are enough to defeat most bottom-tier middleweights.

If this fight consists of Evans repeatedly going for takedowns, I like Kelly's chances of surviving, although I don't know how he is going to land enough offense to win a judge's decision. This figures to be Suga's last stand, which is the only reason I'm picking him to win. I think the odds are considerably better than 50/50 that this fight goes the distance, and that, in turn, make both men poor DK plays, especially if you're trying to hit the home run in a tournament.

THE PICK: Evans

Lightweight

Lando Vannata (9-1-0) v. David Teymur (5-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: ($9,300), Teymur ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Vannata (-250), Teymur (+210)
Odds to Finish: -140

While neither of these two men are household names at this point in their respective careers, both have raised their stocks considerably since entering the company as essentially nothing more than roster depth.
Vannata nearly pulled off a miracle against Ferguson as a last-minute replacement in his UFC debut in July, and he responded with a wheel-kick KO of John Makdessi in December that was on the short list for Knockout of the Year. Lando's striking is a legitimate tool. Even in the Ferguson fight, he showed a constant ability to land combinations. The downside of that is he is willing to take punishment in order to land shots of his own.

A former contestant on Season 22 of The Ultimate Fighter, Teymur has fought a pair of nobodies in his first two UFC bouts, scoring second-round knockouts of Martin Svensson and Jason Novelli. While the competition has been lousy, you can't help but be impressed with his power and composure in the pocket. He waits for openings and then attacks when the opportunity presents itself. It's not a surprise given he is a former four-time Swedish Muay Thai champion.

My general rule is to stay away from fights in which we have a small sample size regarding both men's ability or a fight in which each fighter's style appears to mirror the other. It often means that one of the two men will have to reach into their bag of tricks to pull out a win and it's anyone's guess what will happen if it gets to that point. I'm picking Teymur, albeit with little confidence. It helps that he's the much cheaper DraftKings play, awarding Daily Fantasy MMA players a lot of lineup flexibility.

THE PICK: Teymur

Heavyweight

Alistair Overeem (41-15-0) v. Mark Hunt (12-11-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Overeem ($8,300), Hunt ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Overeem (-145), Hunt (+125)
Odds to Finish: -285

Both fighters are coming off terrible performances - Overeem in his KO loss at the hands of Stipe Miocic in a UFC Heavyweight Championship fight in September, and Hunt against Brock Lesnar in July, although that fight was changed to a no-contest when Lesnar failed his post-fight drug test.

The Reem was more than deserving of his shot against Miocic, but it seems highly likely that was his first and only shot at UFC gold. He has as much power as ever, but he still gets hit way too much. The Reem remains a top-five heavyweight because of the lack of depth in the division, although he isn't quite on the level of the top two or three guys.

It's impossible for Hunt to be in a boring fight, which is why I expect this to be interesting despite the fact Overeem has been in some snoozers over the course of his career. Hunt is the same fighter he's been for the past 10 years: he's a better athlete than he gets credit for, but he doesn't have the footwork to keep up with most fighters, instead relying on his insane power and his granite chin. It takes nothing short of a Mack Truck to finish Hunt.

I think Overeem will win, but Hunt is so difficult to finish that I think the Reem is a poor DK play. There will never be a fight in which I expect Hunt to be finished early. There are fights in which I don't think he will emerge victorious, such as this one, but his durability is legendary and it has shown no signs for evaporating at age 42.

THE PICK: Overeem

Other Bouts

Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura (14-2-0) v. Luis Henrique (10-2-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Tybura ($8,800), Henrique ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Tybura (-155), Henrique (+135)
Odds to Finish: -175
THE PICK: Henrique

Featherweight

Mirsad Bektic (11-0-0) v. Darren Elkins (22-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Bektic ($9,600), Elkins ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Bektic (-620), Elkins (+460)
Odds to Finish: -110
THE PICK: Bektic

Bantamweight

Iuri Alcantara (33-7-0, 1NC) v. Luke Sanders (11-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alcantara ($8,600), Sanders ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Alcantara (-110), Sanders (-110)
Odds to Finish: -110
THE PICK: Alcantara

Heavyweight

Mark Godbeer (11-3-0) v. Daniel Spitz (5-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Godbeer ($8,700), Spitz ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Godbeer (-145), Spitz (+125)
Under 1.5 rounds: -530
THE PICK: Godbeer

Light Heavyweight

Tyson Pedro (5-0-0) v. Paul Craig (9-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Pedro ($8,200), Craig ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Pedro (-115), Craig (-105)
Odds to Finish:-535
THE PICK: Pedro

Women's Strawweight

Amanda Copper (3-2-0) v. Cynthia Calvillo (3-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Cooper ($8,100), Calvillo ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Cooper (-115), Calvillo (-105)
Odds to Finish: +175
THE PICK: Calvillo

Bantamweight

Albert Morales (6-0-1) v. Andre Soukhamthath (11-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Morales ($8,500), Soukhamthath ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Morales (-135), Soukhamthath (+115)
Odds to Finish: -180
THE PICK: Morales

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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