This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open rolls on Wednesday with two men's quarterfinals and two women's quarterfinals. After a wild Tuesday that contained the entire Round of 16 from both draws, more exciting action awaits, as a player who found herself on the brink of defeat in the Round of 16 now finds herself with a nice opportunity to reach the semifinals, while one of the two American men left in the draw could be in trouble against a former champion here. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting has officially gone live.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, form thus far at Indian Wells and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Petra Kvitova (+125) vs. Maria Sakkari
One of the most dangerous opponents in tennis is a player who saved a match point in their previous match, as being so close to losing generally allows players to swing freely and produce some of their best tennis moving forward. Just ask Barbora Krejcikova, who beat each of the top three players in the WTA rankings to claim the Dubai title last month after saving four match points against Daria Kasatkina in her second match of the tournament. Kvitova just saved four match points as well, topping world No. 3 Jessica Pegula 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (11). The two-time Wimbledon champion can control rallies with her powerful groundstrokes, so this match will likely be played on Kvitova's terms, and she'll have plenty of confidence in big moments against Sakkari, who came into this tournament on a two-match losing streak and needed three sets to get through each of her first three matches here. Sakkari leads their head-to-head 4-3, most recently beating Kvitova at last year's installment of this tournament, but the Greek was playing the best tennis of her career at that point and has struggled to replicate that form over the last 12 months.
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Daniil Medvedev (-500) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Medvedev turned his ankle in the second set of his thrilling win over Alexander Zverev on Tuesday, but considering he went on to win both the second and third sets, the surging Russian should be good to go physically for this one. His winning streak has climbed to 17 matches, and Medvedev's unlikely to have that streak broken by Davidovich Fokina, who's a talented player but a notch or two below the sixth-ranked Medvedev at No. 28 in the world. Both of their previous encounters -- including one in Rotterdam last month -- unfolded similarly, with Davidovich Fokina winning the first set 6-4 and Medvedev storming back to win the match 6-2 in the third.
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Cameron Norrie (-165) vs. Frances Tiafoe
This match pits the steady style of Norrie against the power and flare of Tiafoe. As they say, slow and steady wins the race, especially when that race is run on a slow, gritty hard court. Norrie won this title in 2021, and he's coming off a convincing 6-2, 6-4 dismantling of world No. 7 Andrey Rublev. Tiafoe has yet to drop a set here, but he's also benefited from a highly favorable draw, as the 12th-ranked Norrie will be the first top-70 opponent for the 16th-ranked American. While Tiafoe's adjusting to the tougher competition, Norrie should hit the ground running. The Brit has been exceptional on break points so far at Indian Wells, converting 16 of 23 overall, including all five he had against Rublev.
Aryna Sabalenka (-175) vs. Coco Gauff