This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both BNP Paribas Open men's semifinals will be played Saturday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, with the action starting at 1:30 local time in California, which is 4:30 p.m. EDT. The two players who met in the last two Indian Wells championship matches have a chance to set up a third such meeting, but they will face hungry underdogs who have upset these favorites before.
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All men's singles matches at Masters 1000 events are best of three sets, unlike the best of five format at Grand Slams. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
Indian Wells Odds: Medvedev vs. Rune
Daniil Medvedev (-185) vs. Holger Rune (+150)
Rune has found success at the Masters 1000 level in his young career, with a title on indoor hard courts in Paris and two additional Masters 1000 finals. This is also the 21-year-old Dane's third semifinal in his last four Masters 1000 events. Rune beat Medvedev at Monte Carlo in 2023, but Medvedev got revenge in the final of Rome that year, and the Russian pulled ahead 2-1 in their head-to-head with a 7-5, 6-4 win over Rune at Indian Wells last year. Rune has the tools to level their head-to-head here, but he'll need to keep a level head, as patience and good decision-making are key to penetrating Medvedev's defenses. If Rune can execute his game plan at a high level with controlled aggression from the baseline, Medvedev's best chance at countering would be through a strong serving performance from the 6-foot-6 Russian.
While Medvedev's a match away from reaching his third consecutive Indian Wells final, his overall hard-court form has noticeably slipped compared to the previous two years -- Medvedev came into this tournament with a record of just 8-5 in 2025. The No. 5 seed just got by 20th-seeded Arthur Fils in the quarterfinals, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (7), but Medvedev dropped only four games in his previous match against No. 10 seed Tommy Paul. The 12th-seeded Rune has also played two top-20 seeds en route to the semis, defeating No. 18 Ugo Humbert in three sets and No. 8 Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets.
Indian Wells Men's Semifinal Prediction: Rune def Medvedev 7-6, 4-6, 6-4
Indian Wells Odds: Alcaraz vs. Draper
Carlos Alcaraz (-275) vs. Jack Draper (+215)
Draper's dedication and evolution as a tennis player have been impressive, as the 23-year-old Brit has turned fitness from a weakness into a strength. He's still at his best moving forward and playing aggressively, but Draper has demonstrated an aptitude for defending from six-plus feet behind the baseline when necessary. Those improved defensive skills should help Draper find success on all surfaces, but in this particular matchup, the Brit's chances of winning diminish the slower the surface gets, and these conditions are far on the slow side for a hard court. Draper's best chance is to consistently force the issue and get forward, as defending behind the baseline is unlikely to yield much success against Alcaraz's mix of power and creativity.
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 3-1, with Draper's lone win coming on grass. The Spaniard took the first two sets of their most recent encounter at the Australian Open this year before the Brit said "no mas," and Alcaraz also won via retirement two years ago at Indian Wells, in a match which Alcaraz was leading 6-2, 2-0. This is the first Masters 1000 semifinal of Draper's career, but the ascendant lefty's likely to feature in the latter stages of big tournaments frequently moving forward if he can stay healthy, and Draper reached the semifinals of the 2024 U.S. Open. Alcaraz thrives in the slow hard-court conditions at Indian Wells, as he has won 16 consecutive matches here and is two wins away from a threepeat.
Indian Wells Men's Semifinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Draper 6-4, 7-6
