This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Thursday at the Miami Open features a mix of men's quarterfinals and women's semifinals. A teenage Cinderella will look to notch her third top-five win of this tournament, while two of the highest-upside young players on the ATP Tour face off, and two American men look to punch their tickets to the semis.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Alexandra Eala (+320) vs. Jessica Pegula
Eala continued her Cinderella run with a 6-2, 7-5 quarterfinal win over Iga Swiatek, so the 19-year-old Filipina has now defeated three Grand Slam champions -- with two top-five players among them -- in this tournament, all without dropping a set. Even if the wins have looked a tad flukey through the eye test, Eala deserves credit for drawing errors out of such high quality opponents and holding her nerve in big moments to close these matches out. The potential reward outweighs the risk here as the teenage underdog looks to keep her Cinderella run going in the semifinals against the fourth-ranked Pegula, who has been pushed to a third set in two of four matches here despite having yet to face a top-20 opponent.
Honorable Mention
Sebastian Korda (+300) vs. Novak Djokovic
Miami Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Aryna Sabalenka (-525) vs. Jasmine Paolini
Sabalenka has looked nearly unstoppable since the start of Indian Wells. Mirra Andreeva managed to slow the world No. 1 in a three-set thriller in the Indian Wells final, but Sabalenka hasn't lost a set across her other nine matches in this span. Paolini will be hard-pressed to keep pace in this matchup, as the 5-foot-11 Belarusian simply produces significantly more power than the 5-foot-4 Italian. While Paolini's a willing and capable scrambler, her opportunities to step in and counterattack will likely be limited, which will leave the Italian to rely on Sabalenka making enough unforced errors to tip the scales. Sabalenka has improved her consistency and shot selection in recent years, which is borne out in their head-to-head. Paolini won two of their first three encounters, but both of their matchups since the start of 2023 have been straight-sets Sabalenka wins.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Fritz (-215) vs. Matteo Berrettini
Miami Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Arthur Fils (-115) vs. Jakub Mensik
We could be seeing this matchup a lot deep in big tournaments over the next decade, as Fils and Mensik are two of the sport's brightest young stars. The 20-year-old Fils will likely have an edge in comfort this deep into a Masters 1000 considering he just made the quarterfinals at Indian Wells immediately preceding this tournament. The fiery Frenchman is coming off a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 upset win over No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev. Fils was treated for a back injury after the first set, but considering he won the two sets after that, health doesn't seem to be an issue for Fils. Mensik has a signature win of his own in this tournament, having knocked off No. 6 seed and Indian Wells champion Jack Draper, but the 19-year-old hasn't had to take the court against any other seeded opponents, having advanced to the quarterfinals via walkover when Czech compatriot Tomas Machac withdrew due to an illness prior to the Round of 16. Both Fils and Mensik are fierce competitors with plenty of power, but Fils is a bit more refined at this stage and throws in more variety, which has helped Fils climb to 18th in the rankings, 36 spots above Mensik.
