This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both Miami Open men's semifinals will be played Friday, starting at 3:00 p.m. EDT. Only two top-10 seeds reached the quarterfinals in the men's draw, but both kept their runs going into the semifinals. One of them is set up for smooth sailing into the final against a familiar foe, while the other could struggle against a rising young star.
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All men's singles matches at Masters 1000 events are best of three sets, unlike the best of five format at Grand Slams. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
Miami Open Odds: Djokovic vs. Dimitrov
Novak Djokovic (-330) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (+260)
After a hamstring injury contributed to an uncharacteristic three-match losing streak, Djokovic has gotten back on track here in his quest for a seventh Miami Open title. He hasn't dropped a set en route to the semifinals and will have a comfortable matchup here against Dimitrov. Djokovic leads the head-to-head between these two veterans 12-1. Dimitrov's only win came on clay in their third meeting back in 2013, and Djokovic has a massive 23-4 edge in sets in their 10 subsequent encounters. There's little reason to think this match will go differently, as Dimitrov has yet to notch a top-20 win in 2025, and his only matchup with a top-20 opponent was a 6-1, 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells.
Due to weather delays, Dimitrov was the only one of Friday's four competitors who played his quarterfinal match Wednesday. The extra day off should come in handy considering the 33-year-old Bulgarian was noticeably exhausted by the end of his 6-7 (6), 6-4, 7-6 (3) quarterfinal triumph over Francisco Cerundolo. Dimitrov also tweaked his ankle late in that match while hitting a spectacular passing shot on the first point of the match-deciding tiebreak. On the bright side, he saved a match point at 5-6, and getting through a match after saving match point tends to help players swing more freely and play at a high level in subsequent matches. That likely won't matter here, though, as Djokovic is well prepared for anything Dimitrov can throw at him, and the Serb knows how to construct rallies such that Dimitrov doesn't get too many opportunities to do damage with his forehand. Dimitrov's frequent use of the slice on the backhand knocks some other opponents off balance, but Djokovic will likely capitalize on that tendency by approaching to that side and cutting off short balls at the net, which has been a fruitful tactic in their lopsided head-to-head.
Miami Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Djokovic def. Dimitrov 6-2, 6-4
Miami Open Odds: Fritz vs. Mensik
Taylor Fritz (-330) vs. Jakub Mensik (+250)
Fritz hasn't let the pressure get to him as the first male American top-three seed at a Masters 1000 event since Andy Roddick. The 2024 U.S. Open finalist is into the sixth Masters 1000 semifinal of his career. Fritz went 1-4 in the previous five but went on to win the 2022 Indian Wells title the one time he made it through to the final. He had to get through a quarterfinal thriller to get here, outlasting Matteo Berrettini 7-5, 6-7 (7), 7-5. Just like in that match, break chances will be at a premium in what is another battle of big servers. Fritz dismantled Mensik 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 at the 2023 U.S. Open in their only previous encounter, but the 19-year-old Czech has come a long way since then.
Mensik actually has 72 aces to Fritz's 43 in four matches apiece, and the 6-foot-4 Mensik is a better mover with a sturdier base on his groundstrokes compared to the 6-foot-5 Fritz, though Fritz does a better job of setting up his serve-plus-one while Mensik still prefers to hunt for aces at this stage of his career. The 54th-ranked Mensik had to play a first-round match here as an unseeded player while Fritz got a bye into the second round, but Mensik was the beneficiary of a walkover in the Round of 16 against Tomas Machac (illness) before winning a battle of rising stars against Arthur Fils in the quarterfinals, 7-6 (5), 6-1. Mensik also beat Indian Wells champion Jack Draper, 7-6 (2), 7-6 (3) in the second round, so the young Czech's confidence has never been higher. Though Mensik has had to go through some growing pains mentally, having occasionally checked out of matches when things start going against him, he's unlikely to be overwhelmed by the moment in his first Masters 1000 semifinal, especially with the pressure on the favored Fritz.
Miami Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Mensik def. Fritz 6-4, 6-7, 6-3
