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Turner finished the season as the sixth best fantasy player in standard formats with another strong season as a five-category contributor. The drop in batting average was offset by a surprising surge in RBI thanks to him hitting leadoff less frequently, but, more importantly, he avoided the injured list for just the second time in the past five full seasons. His speed buys him hits others cannot afford, as his 33 infield hits helped prop up his average as he struggled with breaking balls (.247 average) throughout the season. Even as he approaches 30, he retains his elite speed, and back-to-back full big-volume seasons ease the health concerns that followed him in previous years. It is scary to think what Turner could accomplish in steals under the new rules, as he was already one of the best thieves by success rate in the league. He landed in Philadelphia in free agency, which is close to a neutral move when factoring in the ballparks and lineups of the Phillies and Dodgers (where righty power played way up, per Statcast).

The baseball world wondered what Acuna would look like coming off his July 2021 ACL tear. Our answer: He remains one of the most dynamic players in the game. There was no easing back into the running game, as Acuna stole two bases in his return from the injured list April 28 and swiped a total of nine bags in his first 20 games of 2022. The dog days of summer were tough on Acuna, and he finished the year with a .413 SLG, over 100 points below his career mark. However, he still ranked in the top eight percent of the league in all of hard-hit percentage, xwOBA and xSLG, per Statcast. His launch angle was down close to eight points from his prior two seasons. Now that he's further removed from the knee surgery, and perhaps with a few tweaks, Acuna should be able to tap into more power and return to the elite tier of fantasy contributors.

Machado delivered a career-best 152 wRC+ with 37 doubles, 32 home runs, 102 RBI and 100 runs to power the Padres offense in 2022. It's the second straight season the third baseman has cracked 100 RBI, and it's the sixth time in his career he's topped 30 homers. He surprisingly produced his worst strikeout rate at 20.7 percent, but a .337 BABIP helped him to a .298 average despite a .264 xBA. Machado will turn 31 years old in July and should continue to be a major producer near the top of San Diego's lineup in 2023, though his numbers could fall a bit if he's unable to again significantly outperform his expected figures.

With a 157 wRC+, Freeman was at least 50 percent better than average for the fifth time in his career. His homers fell, but a personal best 47 doubles helped mitigate the drop. One home run estimator indicated three of his 22 dingers were undeserved while another pegged him for four more. The underlying metrics show no difference from previous seasons, so perhaps the drop was moving to the NL West, though on paper it shouldn't have made a difference. Freeman swiped 13 bases, his most ever. Freeman only missed three games, bringing the count to just 10 absences since playing only 117 games in 2017. Excluding 2020, Freeman has collected at least 192 runs plus RBI over this span, exceeding 200 for the last three full campaigns. Freeman may not match the homers and steals of other elite hitters, but he makes up for it in the other three roto categories, and with a 12 percent walk rate, he's an OBP and points league monster.

Goldschmidt's underlying metrics were actually better in 2021, but last season he teamed up with Lady Luck to take home the National League MVP. The only skill-based metric Goldschmidt improved from the prior campaign was a return to a double-digit walk rate. His HR/FB ticked up four points despite a slight drop in fly ball average exit velocity. His .368 BABIP was its highest since 2015, despite him having the third lowest average exit velocity over that span. His .261 xBA and .482 xSLG were both his second lowest since 2015. Despite all this, everything came together, and Goldschmidt posted a 177 wRC+, the best of his career. The take-home message is expect regression, likely to a level lower than his 2021 season. Goldschmidt is still a solid fantasy producer with a high batting-average floor and plus power along with a handful of steals; just don't pay for his magical 2022 season.

Since 2020, only Aaron Judge has more homers than Alonso. If you go back a year, Alonso heads the list. Last season, he posted his best season since 2019, fueled by a career high .271 batting average. Alonso's 18.8 percent strikeout rate dropped for the third straight season. His fly ball exit velocity dropped, but a tick more fly balls and him missing only two games allowed him to reach the 40-homer level for the second time in his career. Other than stolen bases, Alonso checks all boxes. Missing only 18 games in his four-year career shows durability while a wRC+ between 120 and 144 each season indicates reliability. A low strikeout rate offers a solid batting average floor for one of the top sluggers in the league. Alonso also hits in a prominent spot in a productive lineup. For pure power, it doesn't get any better.

Tatis may possibly be the biggest fantasy wildcard of 2023. He will be coming off an 80-game suspension for PEDs that will end earlier than initially projected since the Padres went deep into the NL playoffs. Tatis is now projected to be back on the active roster in late April, but he has also undergone two different surgeries this winter. He finally had that troublesome shoulder operated on as well as his left wrist. You add in the complexity of missing the entire 2022 season with his off-the-field antics leading to injury, the suspension and two surgeries, and we are left with the question of how early someone will take the risk on a top-five talent in a draft. The upside remains huge, but nobody can be blamed for passing on this maelstrom of risks, as we have rarely seen so many red flags at one time with a player, let alone one of his caliber. The projections will likely look conservative for his talents, but with good reason. Simply put, he is going to make or break many fantasy teams in 2023.

Despite a two-week IL stint with a cracked rib, Betts parlayed a career high 47.7 percent fly ball rate into 35 homers, a personal best. The downside was a lower BABIP for the fourth straight season, as Betts' uppercut swing decreased his groundball exit velocity, which torpedoed his groundball BABIP. However, a low 16.3 percent strikeout rate limited damage, allowing Betts to register a 144 wRC+, the third best of his career. Betts' sprint speed fell to 49th percentile, but he still collected double-digit pilfers for the eighth straight campaign. In his salad days, Betts was one of the best, if not the top, fantasy batters, worthy of the top overall pick. Less durability, a lower average and fewer steals have conspired to keep him out of that discussion, but he's still in the first-round chat. Since 2016, no one has scored more runs than Betts. Him hitting at or near the top of a potent lineup should keep that intact.

Harris did not come out of nowhere, but no one expected him to reach the majors so soon, let alone win NL Rookie of the Year. He was slashing .305/.372/.506 with Double-A Mississippi when he received the call in late May. Harris started out slow, but the Braves' patience paid off. His 24.3 percent strikeout rate and 4.8 percent walk rate suggest Harris still has work to do, but a 75th percentile hard hit rate paired with 95th percentile spring speed and a 95.2 fly ball average exit velocity is the blueprint for a five-category cornerstone. Harris' platoon splits are a slight concern, as he posted a .943 OPS against righties and a .649 mark facing southpaws. Just 22-years-old, Harris can surely narrow the gap, but in the short term, he may hit low in the order with a lefty on the hill. It's risky investing top-tier draft capital in a still unproven player, but the indicators point toward him being a perennial first round/$40 player.

Riley now has 3.16 years of major league service (trust us, don't look it up) and has quickly established himself as one of the premier power hitters in baseball with elite metrics in barrel percentage, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and awesome walk-up music. The expected stats from 2021 told us the .300 average was an outlier, so the 30-point drop in batting average did not come as much of a surprise. That said, he does profile as someone who should see some type of bump in batting average with the shift rules changing this season. Sure, he doesn't walk that often and his strikeouts are a bit on the high side, but he's a modern day Mike Schmidt at the plate who may eventually need a new defensive position given his limitations at the hot corner. He is a solid four-category performer who continues to improve his draft status and finished this season as the 21st most valuable player in standard formats. There is a strong chance he does not make it to the third round this season, so plan accordingly.

Baseball is an incredibly difficult game, and even players with Hall of Fame skill sets will struggle for stretches. At the end of June, Soto was batting just .224. It leaked in the media that Soto had turned down the Nationals' 15-year, $440 million offer, setting the stage for a blockbuster trade that sent Soto out West for an all-time prospect haul. Batting average, as we know, has its limitations, and in Soto's case his .242 season mark is downright misleading. He still hit the ball with incredible authority and chased pitches outside of the zone at a lower rate than anyone. The Padres did not run much last season under manager Bob Melvin, but everything else sets up well for a big-time rebound in Soto's first full season in San Diego.

The final three-and-a-half months of Albies' 2022 season were wiped out by injury, in particular a broken left foot and then a broken pinkie finger suffered in his second game back from the injured list. Most of the batted-ball metrics were well down for Albies, but it's impossible to glean too much from the sample (269 plate appearances). His strikeout rate remained right around his career average at 17.5 percent. Perhaps most disturbingly for rotisserie players is the fact that his running waned (3-for-8 on the base paths) as his Statcast sprint speed only ranked in the 54th percentile. That said, we should expect renewed intent for Albies to start the 2023 season, assuming he doesn't run into more health trouble. Despite losing Freddie Freeman last winter, Atlanta still ranked third in baseball in scoring, so Albies could reach 100 runs scored for the fourth time already.

Olson handled the impossible task of replacing a face of a franchise as best he could, but the 2022 results were still a fantasy disappointment. Olson was coming off a career year in a bad ballpark with a lesser lineup, so the relocation to Atlanta and its roster was expected to be more of a boon for Olson, yet the performance was closer to 2019 than it was 2021. In hindsight, we should have looked at the risks of changing leagues, replacing Freeman and getting a new contract as a Bermuda Triangle of risks with the slugger, as that is how the season played out. He took advantage of the lineup to continue to drive in runs, and the 34 homers, with the baseball manufacturing issues, were still solid, but he gave back the strikeout gains from 2021, going back to his pre-2020 levels as he worked to adjust to a different league. The 2023 season should allow him to resume the trajectory of 2021 with more familiarity with the National League. That said, how he handles non-fastballs makes or breaks his batting average, and off-speed stuff really ate him up in 2022 (.224 avg., 26 percent Whiff rate) over 2021 (.267 avg., 18 percent whiff rate).

Cruz is a walking highlight reel. He is a physical specimen at 6-foot-7, 210 pounds and packs some of the loudest tools you're ever likely to see on a baseball field. In late August, Cruz hit a batted ball at 122.4 mph, setting a new record for the Statcast era. His sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile last season. As expected, there were some swing-and-miss issues (34.9 K%), though he shaved the strikeouts down over the season's final month and really took off (.288/.359/.525). The upside is obvious with the former top prospect, but it's important to remember that he's still just 24 years old and will be playing for a Pirates team without much around him in one of the game's worst ballparks for offense.

Save for the pandemic season, Arenado has totaled at least 30 homers with 100 RBI every season since 2015. He posted seasons with a higher wOBA in Colorado, but his 151 wRC+ was the best of his career. Arenado's defense was again stellar. The main differences between last season and his first with St. Louis were fewer strikeouts and more walks along with better BABIP fortune. His batted ball and Statcast numbers were virtually identical. Arenado missed a career high 14 games, but most were when he served a short suspension, was on the restricted list and on paternity leave so durability remains high. Arenado had a chance to opt out of his contract, but he declined. Playing in Busch Stadium could hurt his numbers towards the end of the remaining five years he has left on his contract, but there is currently no indication of a decline. What Arenado lacks in speed, he makes up for in reliability.

Burnes followed up his NL Cy Young season in impressive fashion. While he didn't bring home the hardware in the National League again, the right-hander was right up there among the best pitchers in the game no matter how you slice it. At 27 years old, Burnes fanned 243 batters -- second in baseball behind only Gerrit Cole -- and surpassed 200 innings for the first time, adding 35 frames to his 2021 total. There is little to nitpick in the underlying numbers, though Burnes hit some bumps in the road in the second half, with his ERA finishing at 3.97 after the All-Star break. A corresponding dip in his strikeout rate after the break (to 27.9 percent) perhaps gives reason for pause heading into 2023, but the overall body of work was stellar. Burnes should still be treated as one of MLB's elite aces, even if he won't get to pick on the NL Central quite as much with the balanced schedule.

A pair of oblique issues limited Scherzer to only 23 starts in his inaugural season with the Mets. The veteran right-hander spent almost seven weeks on the IL in the first half, then lost two more weeks in September. His strikeout rate dipped a tad to a still dominant 30.6 percent while his 4.2 percent walk rate was its lowest since 2015. Scherzer took advantage of pitching in cavernous Citi Field to drop his homers to .81 HR/9, the lowest since 2014. Scherzer's four-seam velocity continued a slightly downward trend, but it's not enough to be concerned about. Scherzer enjoyed another outstanding season, where his 2.46 ERA marked the eighth time in the last 10 years his ERA was sub-3.00. Even so, Scherzer will be remembered most for struggling in his last two starts, one to end the regular season and the other in the Wild Card round. This may drop his price to the point the durability risk is worth the reliability reward.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of 2020, Verlander missed all of 2021. Most tempered expectations, citing no one this late in his career has come back from the procedure to immediately regain previous form. A few suggested if anyone could do it, it was Verlander. They were right. At 39, Verlander captured his third Cy Young award, posting a 1.75 ERA over 175 frames. He benefited from a .240 BABIP and 80.5% LOB mark, but Verlander's 23.4 K-BB% ranked eighth among qualified pitchers and a 2.49 FIP, 3.23 xFIP and 3.09 SIERA are representative of an outstanding campaign. However, they also portend an ERA correction. It's hard not to give Verlander SP1 status. It's also fair to be leery of a repeat. The early market comes with an injury discount, but it still boils down to your risk aversion and willingness to invest in a 40-year-old as your staff anchor. His team context remains strong after he agreed to a two-year pact with the Mets this winter.

Darvish struggled with back and hip injuries during the second half of 2021 but rebounded last season with a 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 197:37 K:BB across 194.2 innings. The sub-1.00 WHIP represents the lowest mark of his MLB career, and it's the most innings he pitched since he exceeded 200 back in 2013. The right-hander remained steady with his fastball velocity and averaged 95 mph, which is an encouraging sign with his 37th birthday coming up in August. There's always risk when banking on the continued success of pitchers this late in their career, but Darvish looked as strong as ever last year and should again be a key cog in San Diego's starting rotation in 2023.

Alcantara reached the pinnacle in 2022, winning the National League Cy Young Award while literally lapping the field with six complete games. He continued to pump the four-seam and sinker in at 97-98 mph, though it was the changeup that he threw more than any other pitch last season (34.4 Whiff%). Technically his strikeout rate was only a little above average, but when you subtract walks (K-BB%), he ranked top 20 among qualifiers. Alcantara led baseball by a sizable margin with his 228.2 innings during the regular season and he's the only pitcher in the game to clear the 200-inning threshold each of the past two seasons. A certain portion of the fantasy community will fade Alcantara on principle alone coming off a career year, and it's not crazy to be reluctant about paying the new sticker price in drafts, but Alcantara has to be considered among the safest pitchers on the board from a workload standpoint.

Strider took the baseball world by storm in the second half of 2022, going 7-2 with a 2.20 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 88:15 K:BB over his final 57.1 innings spanning 10 starts. A left oblique strain knocked him out for the final couple weeks of the regular season, but Strider returned to make a short start in the NLDS. Drafted in the fourth round by Atlanta in 2020, Strider generated a little buzz as a prospect though he didn't make the rotation initially out of spring training. He made his first career MLB start on Memorial Day and it didn't take long for him to solidify his spot among the starting five. The right-hander lights up the radar gun at 98 mph on average and his slider is a devastating swing-and-miss pitch. Strider finished as the NL Rookie of the Year runner up and earned himself a long-term deal in the process. He's already a strikeout machine at 24 years young, and if the changeup comes along, watch out.

Woodruff put up a second consecutive season of ace level performance, but left us wanting more as fantasy managers. Woodruff had the 8th-best K-BB%, 4th best strikeout rate and 20th best WHIP amongst starting pitchers with at least 150 innings of work in 2022. Yet, he finished outside the top 20 in both ERA and wins and missed time in the summer after being diagnosed with Raynaud's syndrome, a circulatory condition which causes numbness in the extremities due to reduced blood flow. That particular issue caused him to have trouble with his grip on his breaking pitches which led to a near 50-point jump in the league-wide batting average against his spinners. It is also worth noting that Woodruff has just once pitched more than 160 innings in a season or made 30 starts over the past three full seasons. The metrics and StatCast data scream ace, but the outcomes leave us wanting a bit more.

If you bought into Fried after the 2021 season, you were handsomely rewardef for your beliefs in 2022 as he matched his efforts with some slight improvements in outocomes to match his 14-7 record while shaving half a run from his ERA. Fried continues to shine as an exemplar for pitchers without elite fastball characteristics can excel in this league. Fried does an outstanding job with his fastball location to then keep hitters off balance with breaking balls and offspeed pitches generating both high volumes of soft contact as well as enough swings and misses for a better than average strikeout rate for a starting pitcher. We are often coached about the perils of building around starting pitching on fantasy rosters, but few pitchers have as high a floor as Fried does even if his ceiling is about as high as it can go in most scoring categories. Wins are truly the only variable here.

Wheeler was barely beaten out for the National League Cy Young Award in 2021 by Corbin Burnes, and the Phillies ace responded with another impressive campaign last year. Wheeler missed a month with forearm tendinitis to take him out of the Cy Young race for 2022, but he still looked the part in 26 starts with a 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 163:34 K:BB across 153 innings. The right-hander saw a minor dip in both his strikeout and walk rates, though his K-BB% (21.3 percent) is still the second-best figure of his eight-year career. He lost a tick off his fastball after he averaged about 97 mph over the past couple seasons, but there's not much cause for concern given he still averaged nearly 96 mph in 2022. Wheeler will turn 33 years old in May, but he's established himself as an ace the past couple years and has shown no signs of slowing down.

Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October.

Old man river keeps on running, and it appears he will continue trickling out to the mound for the Dodgers as long as his body holds up in 2023. The only skills he lacks these days are velocity and good health as he has not made 30 starts since the 2015 season and his fastball is clinging on to the good side of 90 MPH by a stitch of the baseball. Yet, there are few pitchers better at their craft like Kershaw when he is right physically as his elite breaking stuff is the main course after his fastball command has set the table. We could go on all day with superlatives about his real pitching, but his fantasy projections must consider the fact he has missed about a third of the season each of the past two seasons with different issues and that is not a skill which gets better with age. You will get ace stuff most of the time when he takes the ball, but you have to be prepared for him to have at least one stint on the IL each season.

For the first time in his career, Gallen avoided the injury bug, logging 31 starts and 184 innings. He recorded a career best 20.3% K-BB% mark, mostly due to a personal best 6.6% walk rate. Gallen's ratios benefited from a .237 BABIP as well as a 9.1% HR/FB mark. However, even if his 2.54 ERA was achieved with a boost from Lady Luck, Gallen's 3.05 FIP, 3.32 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA are all still excellent, softening the landing when the regression monster rears its ugly head. Gallen's pitch mix didn't change, but he threw his four-seam fastball, slider and curveball a little harder, increasing effectiveness so strikeouts should tick up with continued health. Gallen isn't off the injury concern hook but coming off a healthy season merits fantasy anchor consideration. There is a stigma about drafting pitchers from second-division teams, but the Diamondbacks offense is on the upswing, so wins are on the table.

By ERA, it appears Urias improved on 2021's fine campaign. However, Urias' skills took a small step back, best shown by an 18.1 K-BB percentage mark, down from the 21.1 percent posted the prior season. Urias also yielded more homers last season, but a .229 BABIP and 86.6 percent LOB mark rescued his surface stats, pushing his actual 2.16 ERA well below his 3.71 FIP, 3.81 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA. The Dodgers' defense was no doubt a factor, but Urias also benefited from Lady Luck. Urias' pitch mix again featured a four-seam fastball used a little less than half the time along with a curveball, changeup and occasional sinker. His secondary pitches were just a little less effective in 2022 than in 2021, but the difference can be attributed to variance. Urias deserves points for durability, reliability and team context. Just beware of paying ace prices, as his formulaic projections will peg his ERA closer to last season's estimators.

Williams made his first All Star team in 2022 after an impressive first half as Milwaukee's setup man. Once Josh Hader was traded, many assumed Williams would become the Brewers primary closer, but the team used him as part of a committee for a bit before finally turning things over during the final month. Williams finished with a career high 15 saves, including seven of Milwaukee's last nine. Momentum is certainly on his side as we forecast closers for 2023, especially since his Statcast metrics were off the charts. Williams was 99th percentile or better across nine diffferent metrics, including strikeout rate and hard hit rate. The one area that continues to be a problem is walks, but that's bound to happen when you have insane movement on your changeup - a pitch so filthy that it has its own nickname. While the "Airbender" gets the attention, Williams really improved the effectiveness of his 4-seamer (.090 BAA), which supplemented the change as a secondary strikeout pitch.

Now a two-time All-Star since transitioning back to Major League Baseball after a three-year run in Japan, Mikolas is not afraid to attack hitters. He fills up the strike zone -- Mikolas posted a 4.8 BB% last season -- while using his four-seamer, slider, sinker and curveball all at least 20% of the time. Hitters can't really guess against him, making him a tough plate appearance even if the stuff is modest (19.0 K% last season). The right-hander was forced to miss the shortened 2020 season due to a flexor tendon injury and missed extended time in 2021 with a calcification of that same flexor tendon. The fact that he was able to rebound for a 202.1-inning season suggests he's fine from a health standpoint, but the recent injury history should be accounted for when projecting innings. Drafting him to be much more than a streamer is ill advised.

Is a 20-20 season from your catcher something you'd be interested in? Those that signed up last year had to be ecstatic about their return as Realmuto slashed .276/.342/.478 with 22 homers, 21 steals and nearly 160 runs-plus-RBI, putting him in a different stratosphere from every other fantasy catcher. Realmuto was caught stealing just once and had his best season to date by wRC+. It's impossible to project another 20-steal season from a catcher entering his age-32 season, but don't write off the possibility completely with Realmuto. He's a great athlete and the three-time All-Star will have to shoulder more of the load for the Phillies offensively over the first few months while Bryce Harper recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Perhaps no player in baseball is in a more favorable position than Smith. He was the primary cleanup hitter for a 111-win Dodgers team last season, batting behind the likes of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. Smith held up his end of the bargain with 24 homers and 87 RBI across 578 total plate appearances. He shaved nearly four points off his strikeout rate from his first full season in the majors and the bat is arguably worthy of more DH starts in the years to come (24 starts as the designated hitter in 2022). The rigors of catching make it tough for any backstop to stay healthy over the entire season, year-in and year-out, but Smith has now cleared 500 plate appearances in back-to-back campaigns. The batted-ball metrics, while not elite, largely support his outstanding results.

Known primarily as "Willson's little brother" prior to last season, the younger Contreras is now making a name for himself. The two brothers met in the 2022 All-Star Game, both as starters, becoming the fifth set of siblings to play together in the Midsummer Classic. William was selected via player vote after he hit .260/.345/.533 with 11 homers in the first half. In the end, he reached an even 20 long balls despite making just 376 plate appearances for Atlanta. The batted-ball metrics were impressive, especially for a 24-year-old, though we should expect his BABIP to find a happy medium between his 2021 and 2022 marks (.265, .344). His perceived fantasy value will see a spike following a December trade to Milwaukee, as he not only gets a ballpark upgrade but should also see as much playing time as he can handle.

Contreras posted a career-high 132 wRC+ which could have been even better, except he had to deal with a multitude of injuries, most notably recurring hamstring and ankle woes. Even so, Contreras managed 487 plate appearances, the third most of his career. Serving as the designated hitter 39 times helped keep Contreras' bat in the lineup when he was hurt. Fueling the career year was a personal-best 21.1% strikeout rate and a career-high 48.6% hard-hit rate. Contreras 21.2% HR/FB was typically high, but a 33% flyball rate limits Contreras' power. Many expected Contreras to be dealt at the trade deadline, but he finished the season with the Cubs before declining their qualifying offer. Contreras signed a five-year, $87.5 million deal with the rival Cardinals and will presumably hit in a favorable spot in a far superior lineup -- the park move was neutral. The top end of the catcher pool is improving, but Contreras still warrants upper tier status.

Murphy came into the season known more for his glove work than his bat, yet finished the season as the fifth-best fantasy backstop behind only Realmuto, Varsho, Smith, and Perez. Murphy pulled a Perez-like workload in plate appearances with 612 plate appearances, but Oakland used him at DH 30 times to reduce the wear and tear on his knees. He rewarded them by reducing his strikeout rate and setting career bests in every possible category, even with his first career steal! Murphy could see a decrease in plate appearances following a trade to Atlanta, but it could be a net positive given the lineup upgrade. It has already been reported that Murphy and Travis d'Arnaud will each see time at designated hitter when the other is catching.

Stephenson was a bright spot for the Reds when on the field in 2023, but he was limited to just 50 games around a series of injuries. A broken clavicle put him on the shelf for good in late July. The concussion he suffered early on was the third of his playing career by his own admission, creating some talk among Reds fans that Stephenson may eventually need to move off the catcher position. By all accounts Stephenson is intent on catching until he isn't allowed to anymore, and if a move is necessary in time, Stephenson's bat should play well enough at first base. With better health, Stephenson could emerge as a top-10 hitter at the catcher position while playing his home games at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Some eyebrows were raised when Atlanta gave d'Arnaud a two-year deal after his disappointing 2021 season at the plate, but he rewarded the club with their faith in him with a strong rebound season in 2022 as the club found a way to mix and match his strengths with William Contreras. d'Arnaud used a more aggressive approach at the plate in 2022 looking to hunt early and often for fastballs and he hit .274 while slugging .512 off heaters with 12 of his 18 home runs on the season coming off the 2021 season where he hit .193 and slugged .377 against fastballs. Despite producing like one, d'Arnaud has never been an everyday catcher as he has but twice exceeded 400 plate appearances but yet has five double-digit homer seasons to his name and just scored a career-high 61 runs this past season. Simply put, he makes the most of his opportunities and his 2022 production even exceeded what he did in 2019 when he re-established his market value with a livelier baseball. He should lose more at-bats with the trade that sent out Contreras and brought in Sean Murphy, although d'Arnaud is expected to be the designated hitter sometimes when Murphy starts at catcher.

Not since Cristian Pache have we seen this big of a gulf between a player's ranking on real-life prospect lists and fantasy prospect lists. That's not to say Moreno will become fantasy irrelevant like Pache, but so much of his perceived real-life value is tied to his defense behind the plate. His hit tool is excellent, especially relative to other catching prospects, but Moreno has hit just 11 home runs in 99 minor-league games since the start of 2021 and his 24.9 Hard% in the minors last season is a middling mark. He did well in his first big-league stint as a 22-year-old, hitting .319 with a .274 xBA and 11.0 K% in 25 games, but he had just two extra-base hits. Prime Jonathan Lucroy - something like a .290 AVG and 15-to-20 HR - seems like a median outcome for his prime years and prime Buster Posey - say a .310 AVG and 20-to-25 HR - is a best-case scenario. Either one of those outcomes would be great for fantasy, and Moreno should have the immediate chance for everyday playing time after he was acquired by the Diamondbacks from the Blue Jays in December, though he could split starts with Carson Kelly early on.

Sabol was the fourth overall pick during the Rule 5 draft in December, as the Giants picked him up (via trade with the Reds) after the Pirates declined to add him to the 40-man roster. He turned 25 years old in January and finished the 2022 campaign at the Triple-A level, where he had .296/.426/.543 slash line with five home runs in just 25 games. Sabol must stay on San Francisco's big-league roster for the full 2023 season in order for the organization to keep him. Joey Bart struggled in his first full-time action behind the plate last year following the retirement of Buster Posey, and it's hardly a guarantee he takes a notable step forward in 2023. Sabol should begin the season in a reserve role, and the Giants seem likely to add a veteran catcher for some stability, as it would be quite risky to have Sabol as the sole backup given he has yet to make his MLB debut.

The key piece in the return for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer, Ruiz did not take off in the way the Nationals were surely hoping for, but it's important to remember that not all growth is linear. Ruiz displayed advanced contact skills at age 23/24, striking out at just an 11.5% clip. He hit for a .251 average which is respectable enough though his Statcast xBA was all the way up at .277, ranking in the top 10% of the league. The thump was lacking, with Ruiz's hard-hit and barrel rates leaving a lot to be desired, but the extra-base pop is in there as evidenced by his 24 homers across three levels in 2021. The bat-to-ball skills give him a great foundation to build on and Ruiz can run a little bit, bringing an element that is rare for the catcher position. There is some sneaky upside here as the playing time is locked in. Ruiz ended the year on the injured list with a testicular contusion but there has been nothing to suggest his offseason routine will be affected.

Gomes joined the Cubs on a two-year deal before the 2022 season to serve as a veteran backup to Willson Contreras. As a 34-year-old, Gomes produced about as expected, posting a .625 OPS and eight home runs across 86 games. He mostly appeared behind the plate, but Gomes also picked up a handful of starts at designated hitter, so the Cubs seemed to like his presence in the lineup. Heading into 2023, Gomes could see his role expand, as the Contreras declined the team's qualifying offer and became a free agent. That leaves Gomes and P.J. Higgins as catching options on the roster. Both project more as backups than regular starters, though the Cubs could add to the position in free agency. In the short-term, Gomes could have some elevated fantasy value if he sees an uptick in playing time, but he doesn't really fit into Chicago's rebuilding timeline. At some point, 23-year-old Miguel Amaya could move into the picture, or the Cubs may decide to trade Gomes for prospects before the deadline. Fantasy managers may be able to squeeze a little value from him, but Gomes doesn't have much upside.

Nola is known more for his bat than his glove, but he struggled in both areas in 2022 with a .650 OPS and minus-six DRS. He played in 110 games and had a solid 8.9 percent walk rate, but he hit only four home runs and had a .290 wOBA. A .251 average was also about 20 points lower than his career mark, which is troubling since his. 284 BABIP wasn't a significant drop. Nola should open 2023 in at least a part-time role, but prospect Luis Campusano will be in the mix to start Opening Day and could be a lineup regular with a strong start to the campaign.

Diaz inked a three-year, $14.5 million extension with Colorado after he hit 18 home runs with a .774 OPS in 2021, but he was unable to build on that success last season. The 32-year-old had a .228/.281/.368 slash line with nine homers in 105 games during 2022, and his defense also took a major step back with minus-15 DRS. Brian Serven made his MLB debut but didn't impress offensively with a 52 wRC+, but he provided strong work behind the plate. Diaz should open 2023 with a slight edge for playing time, but his playing time is hardly secure given last season's production, and his fantasy outlook is similarly trending in the wrong direction.

Campusano doesn't have much more to prove with his bat in the minors, as he impressed again for Triple-A El Paso last season, posting a .298/.363/.483 slash line with 14 homers and 60 RBI over 358 plate appearances. His 17.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate further shone light on his readiness to hit in the majors, though he was just okay with a .250/.260/.333 slash line and a 1:11 BB:K over 50 big-league plate appearances with San Diego. That small sample isn't likely to divert the Padres' view of Campusano as their catcher of the future, and it's telling that in November they chose to non-tender veteran backstop Jorge Alfaro, who worked in a timeshare with Austin Nola last season. Nola will still be around in 2023, but Campusano is going to get an expanded opportunity and could emerge as the team's primary catcher if his bat plays up as expected and his glove is at least passable. The position is no longer the wasteland we've grown accustomed to in fantasy, but it's nonetheless a good idea to keep an eye on Campusano in redraft to see how his playing time shakes out.

The retirement of Buster Posey opened the path to a starting role for Bart, but the young catcher was unable to take advantage and had a .215/.296/.364 slash line with 11 home runs and 25 RBI in 97 games. He had a 38.5 percent strikeout rate but made strides defensively and was above average behind the plate. Barring a standout performance in spring training, Bart figures to open 2023 splitting catching duties with Roberto Perez (who signed with the Giants in January), and he'll need to significantly cut down on the strikeouts to have any real chance of maintaining an everyday spot in the lineup.

With a 157 wRC+, Freeman was at least 50 percent better than average for the fifth time in his career. His homers fell, but a personal best 47 doubles helped mitigate the drop. One home run estimator indicated three of his 22 dingers were undeserved while another pegged him for four more. The underlying metrics show no difference from previous seasons, so perhaps the drop was moving to the NL West, though on paper it shouldn't have made a difference. Freeman swiped 13 bases, his most ever. Freeman only missed three games, bringing the count to just 10 absences since playing only 117 games in 2017. Excluding 2020, Freeman has collected at least 192 runs plus RBI over this span, exceeding 200 for the last three full campaigns. Freeman may not match the homers and steals of other elite hitters, but he makes up for it in the other three roto categories, and with a 12 percent walk rate, he's an OBP and points league monster.

Goldschmidt's underlying metrics were actually better in 2021, but last season he teamed up with Lady Luck to take home the National League MVP. The only skill-based metric Goldschmidt improved from the prior campaign was a return to a double-digit walk rate. His HR/FB ticked up four points despite a slight drop in fly ball average exit velocity. His .368 BABIP was its highest since 2015, despite him having the third lowest average exit velocity over that span. His .261 xBA and .482 xSLG were both his second lowest since 2015. Despite all this, everything came together, and Goldschmidt posted a 177 wRC+, the best of his career. The take-home message is expect regression, likely to a level lower than his 2021 season. Goldschmidt is still a solid fantasy producer with a high batting-average floor and plus power along with a handful of steals; just don't pay for his magical 2022 season.

Since 2020, only Aaron Judge has more homers than Alonso. If you go back a year, Alonso heads the list. Last season, he posted his best season since 2019, fueled by a career high .271 batting average. Alonso's 18.8 percent strikeout rate dropped for the third straight season. His fly ball exit velocity dropped, but a tick more fly balls and him missing only two games allowed him to reach the 40-homer level for the second time in his career. Other than stolen bases, Alonso checks all boxes. Missing only 18 games in his four-year career shows durability while a wRC+ between 120 and 144 each season indicates reliability. A low strikeout rate offers a solid batting average floor for one of the top sluggers in the league. Alonso also hits in a prominent spot in a productive lineup. For pure power, it doesn't get any better.

Olson handled the impossible task of replacing a face of a franchise as best he could, but the 2022 results were still a fantasy disappointment. Olson was coming off a career year in a bad ballpark with a lesser lineup, so the relocation to Atlanta and its roster was expected to be more of a boon for Olson, yet the performance was closer to 2019 than it was 2021. In hindsight, we should have looked at the risks of changing leagues, replacing Freeman and getting a new contract as a Bermuda Triangle of risks with the slugger, as that is how the season played out. He took advantage of the lineup to continue to drive in runs, and the 34 homers, with the baseball manufacturing issues, were still solid, but he gave back the strikeout gains from 2021, going back to his pre-2020 levels as he worked to adjust to a different league. The 2023 season should allow him to resume the trajectory of 2021 with more familiarity with the National League. That said, how he handles non-fastballs makes or breaks his batting average, and off-speed stuff really ate him up in 2022 (.224 avg., 26 percent Whiff rate) over 2021 (.267 avg., 18 percent whiff rate).

Meneses was the International Player of the Year in 2018, batting .311/.360/.510 with Triple-A Lehigh. Meneses played in Japan for two years then returned stateside in 2021, landing in the Red Sox system. He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals for the 2022 campaign. After cleaning house at the trade deadline, Washington promoted the 30-year-old for his MLB debut. He slashed .286/.341/.489 for Triple-A Rochester. Meneses crushed 13 homers in two months, though two xHR metrics pegged him for 10. While Meneses power was in line with his minor league numbers, his .371 BABIP with the Nationals was artificially high, spurred by an unsustainable number of outfield line drives sporting a high BABIP. Even with batting average regression, Meneses warrants a look at first base in a transition year for the Nationals. His power is mixed-league worthy, but brace for the inevitable dip in batting average.

It is somewhat amusing that while Cron hit 57 homers over the past two seasons in Denver, he never did reach the 30 plateau as he did in Tropicana Field of all places in 2018. Cron hit 22 of his 29 homers in Coors this past season with a hefty .302/.354/.601 slash line, but other stadiums were his kryptonite as he hit .214/.279/.340 away from Denver with seven homers. Fantasy managers should hope the Rockies keep Cron around as long as possible given how poorly he has hit away from Coors the past two seasons. The power will play anywhere, but this profile is much less attractive if it comes with batting average risks.

Walker parlayed more patience and an increase in fly balls into a 122 wRC+, the highest mark of his career. He swung at fewer pitches in and out of the zone, fueling a career low 19.6% strikeout rate. Walker's fly ball exit velocity increased, supporting a career-high .235 ISO. Unfortunately, his BABIP was adversely affected, falling over 50 points to .248. However, a 10.3% walk rate helped mitigate the damage. There was some luck involved in Walker's uptick, but the new approach should help him maintain more power than previously displayed. Walker's 17 defensive runs saved were by far the most among qualified first basemen which should help him stay on the field in the event he incurs some regression. After dealing with oblique issues last season, Walker missed only two games. He missed only 13 in 2019-2020, so durability is a plus. Walker is in play for those waiting on a first baseman/corner infielder.

When Tellez was deal to Milwaukee, fantasy managers had hoped that he would be freed from the shackles of a platoon situation and we could finally see what the slugger could do as a full-time player. For better and for worse, that indeed happened in 2022. Tellez had 599 plate appearances and his StatCast profile has a high volume of dark red ink on it, but the .219/.306/.461 triple-slash line shows the risks of exposing the lefty slugger to too many lefty pitchers. That approach worked in 2019 when the fortunes went his way and he hit .270/.317/.513 against lefties in the AL, but went .209/.313/.330 against lefties in the NL this past season as he swung and missed at nearly 50% of the non-fastballs he saw from southpaws. The new shift rules could potentially add a few points of average to his line, but he otherwise remains a two-category contributor.

Votto enjoyed a resurgent 2021 campaign with 36 home runs and a .938 OPS, but he crashed hard last season with a .205/.319/.370 slash line in 91 games before he underwent surgery for a torn rotator cuff. It's unclear how long and exactly how much the injury affected his season, which saw the veteran first baseman produced the worst strikeout rate (25.8 percent) of his career. Votto's exit velocity dipped over three mph to 89.7, which cratered his expected batting averaged to .218. He still got on base at a good clip with a 12.0 percent walk rate, but he's unlikely to return to his former power profile. Votto should rebound some with a healthy shoulder, but his health in 2023 certainly isn't guaranteed as he enters his age-39 season, and he'll once again be surrounded by a poor Cincinnati lineup that will depress any counting stats.

Gurriel delivered a career-best 132 wRC+ in 2021, but he was unable to replicate that last season and had a .242/.288/.360 slash line. He had a career-high eight stolen bases, but he clubbed only eight home runs and failed to provide much production otherwise for the Astros. He won a Gold Glove in 2021, but his defense also took a dive last year with minus-nine OAA. It's poor timing for the 38-year-old first baseman, who is now on the open market. Gurriel may have a difficult time finding an everyday role in free agency, and it's unclear whether he'll seriously consider retirement if his options are limited.

Santana made the financial decision to take the contract with the Pirates and get paid to play one year removed from a fun stretch of play with Seattle that saw him provide some key moments in their improbable run to the postseason. Santana is often cited as one of the players who should most benefit from the new limitations on shifting, but even a 40-point surge in batting average (that is never happening!) would still keep him below the league averag. Santana has hovered at or under the Mendoza Line for three consecutive seasons after his last big fantasy season in 2019. Santana makes a nice first base platoon partner for Ji-Man Choi when a lefty starter is on the mound if the club wants to give him time in the field rather than DH him every day in the lineup. He should be a volume producer as he has been each of the past two seasons, but that volume comes with a severe batting average penalty. The new shifting conditions could push him back into the .220's, but wishcasting anything more than that is just greedy. We strongly encourage you to take a long look at his Stat Review section below because that section looks much better than his actual production last season.

Mancini certainly felt the effects of the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his production before he was dealt to Houston. His overall numbers were just slightly above the league average for a second consecutive season, but his production in Houston was far less than in Baltimore. He hit just .176/.258/.364 after the trade compared to .267/.347/.404 before it. His 2019 season (35 HR) is unlikely to happen again, but 20 homers and 60-70 runs scored and runs driven in is certainly in the realm of realistic outcomes. It is tough to figure out a batting average projection for someone who has hit anywhere from .239 to .291 in recent seasons, especially someone as slow. He needs a heavy dose of batted ball luck to repeat his batting averages of 2017 and 2019, but given a different baseball than those seasons, it is safer to hope for a .250 batting average. He still qualifies in the outfield this season but is unlikely to see much action there after he signed a two-year deal with the Cubs given his defensive deficiencies. Mancini should split playing time at first base and designated hitter with Eric Hosmer and is clearly the better option of the two.

Mervis, one of the gems of the undrafted free agent class from the shortened five-round pandemic draft of 2020, was one of the breakout hitting prospects of 2022. Not only did he destroy the pitching at High-A (182 wRC+), Double-A (148 wRC+) and Triple-A (152 wRC+), but his strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate increased as the competition improved. Mervis slashed .297/.383/.593 with 15 home runs, a 10.4 BB% and a 14.6 K% in 57 games at Triple-A and had three strikeouts and three walks while homering five times in his first 12 games of the Arizona Fall League. He is seemingly getting better every week en route to tallying 41 home runs in 149 games (and counting) in 2022. The Cubs added veterans Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini during the offseason, temporarily blocking the path the playing time at first base in the majors, though his long-term outlook at the position remains positive. Mervis' OPS was 1.034 against righties and .869 against lefties, so while he may be worse against same-handed pitching, he won't need a platoon partner when the Cubs deem him ready for the big leagues. Mervis had already drawn plenty of attention as a popular sleeper pick early in offseason drafts, but expect his ADP to trend down heading into spring training with the likelihood that he opens the season at Triple-A Iowa following the Cubs' additions of Hosmer and Mancini.

Cooper received a career-high 469 plate appearances last season, and the results were more or less what you'd expect: an above-average overall performance at the plate, but not one to write home about. Cooper hit .261/.337/.415 and managed a modest nine homers, though accounting for the league-wide drop in offense as well as the tough hitting environment in Miami gives him a respectable 115 wRC+. His underlying numbers also represented more of the same. His 25.4 K% was above-average but not particularly worrisome, especially as he hit the ball hard (10.7% barrel rate) when he did make contact. It all adds up to a perfectly capable hitter, but not one who's going to excite fantasy players. While playing time should be there now that Jesus Aguilar is gone, it's unlikely another level is coming in Cooper's age-32 season. He also has durability concerns, lowering the floor for a player who's otherwise far more interesting for his floor than his ceiling.

If Choi were allowed to face Gerrit Cole every at bat, Choi would be a first round selection as he is somehow a lifetime .417/.533/.917 hitter against Cole in 30 plate appearances and a .236 hitter against the rest of the league over his career. Choi was a cult hero with the Tampa Bay fan base for his moments against Cole as well as some other timely hits and and animated celebrations, but injuries and the inability to do anything against lefties limited his value. His production fell off a cliff in the second half of last season, so the hope is he can revive some fantasy value in NL-Only formats with regular playing time in Pittsburgh. If the Pirates allow him to face lefties, the batting average will never get over .240, but Choi has one of the more discernable eyes at the plate in the league making him more valuable in OBP formats. This is not a player you want seeing 500 plate appearances in 2023, but one who can still provide some streaming value in-season when the projected matchups are loaded with righty pitchers.

The final three-and-a-half months of Albies' 2022 season were wiped out by injury, in particular a broken left foot and then a broken pinkie finger suffered in his second game back from the injured list. Most of the batted-ball metrics were well down for Albies, but it's impossible to glean too much from the sample (269 plate appearances). His strikeout rate remained right around his career average at 17.5 percent. Perhaps most disturbingly for rotisserie players is the fact that his running waned (3-for-8 on the base paths) as his Statcast sprint speed only ranked in the 54th percentile. That said, we should expect renewed intent for Albies to start the 2023 season, assuming he doesn't run into more health trouble. Despite losing Freddie Freeman last winter, Atlanta still ranked third in baseball in scoring, so Albies could reach 100 runs scored for the fourth time already.

What could have been. Chisholm Jr was on pace for a monster fantasy season in Miami after a winter where many debated his fantasy merits but the dream lasted just 60 games as a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus ended his season in late June. Preseason projections had him in the 20-20 aea with a low batting average, but Chisholm Jr was on pace to toy with a 30-30 season and finished 11 points above the league-wide batting average thanks to his willingness to accept a few more walks and chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. He has had a full-time role for two seasons in Miami, but we have yet to see a full-season of play from him and he has now lost his dual-eligibility as he is exclusively a second baseman. The 30-30 potential is still there for Chisholm Jr if the body is healthy and the next manager allows the team to run as Mattingly did this past season. The health risk should give you pause if you are considering reaching for the upside here.

A graduate from Stanford with a degree in math and computational science, Edman is a smart baseball player and you can see it in certain stats like his stolen-base success rate (career 79-for-92). He picks his spots and maximizes his natural talent. While Edman doesn't draw a ton of walks, he puts the ball in play and can hit for decent average and a bit of pop from both sides of the plate. It's worth noting that of Edman's 32 steals last season, 21 came when he batted out of the leadoff spot. Conversely, he only stole two bags in 31 games batting at the bottom of the order, so the Cardinals' lineups will be worth watching as we push closer to Opening Day. Regardless of where he slots in, Edman will be in the staring nine close to every day thanks to his defensive prowess. He is eligible at both middle-infield positions entering 2023.

"Pesky" may be the best word to describe Cronenworth as a player. He did not have a particularly good season by his standards (.722 OPS), but he lays off pitches out of the zone and punishes mistakes. Despite a Statcast hard-hit rate ranking in the bottom quarter of the league, Cronenworth got to a respectable 17 homers last season. He made the most of his lineup placement batting in front of Manny Machado and eventually Juan Soto. He puts the ball in play at a strong clip (career 16.5 K%), but this is not a flashy talent. What makes Cronenworth appealing is dual-position eligibility (2B, 1B), everyday playing time in a good offense and a relatively high floor thanks to his contact and plate management skills. If everyone else is jumping at the perceived higher-upside players, welcome him to your roster with open arms as he's a strong bet to clear 600 plate appearances again.

Vargas is simply one of the best pure hitters who is still technically a prospect. He hit .304/.404/.511 with a 14.6 K%, 31.7 Hard% and 17 home runs in 113 games as a 22-year-old at Triple-A and predictably played sparingly during a cup of coffee in the majors. His team context - the Dodgers seemingly always have a few quality options for his positions (first base, third base, left field) - is by far the biggest knock on Vargas in the short term. Vargas is not thought of as a burner, but he stole 17 bases on 22 attempts and has a 94th percentile sprint speed, so he could at least be a 4.5-category contributor with regular playing time. He is talented enough to take the left field job and run with it early this season, but it's possible that the Dodgers' crowded depth chart leads to Vargas being a post-hype sleeper in 2024.

After being named National League Rookie of the Year in 2021, India injured his hamstring a week into the season and landed on the injured list. He returned a couple weeks later only to wind up back on the IL in short order with the same injury. From there he battled a number of aches and pains, mostly the result of his many hit-by-pitches along with some foul balls off his body. India was plunked 14 times in 431 plate appearances last season after leading the NL in HBPs in his rookie year with a whopping 23. That aspect of his game adds to his injury risk, but India put together a red-hot stretch from July to September in which he hit .306/.376/.505 across 52 games and reminded everyone that he's a high-level talent. We know India likes to run and the short porch in left field at Great American Ball Park is conducive to right-handed power.

Estrada came into the season just hoping to make the roster and finished the season tied for 11th in steals while also hitting 14 homers. He was one of 51 players to pull such a double-double in 2022 and was arguably the most surprising one given he had never had a double-digit homer total at any stop of his professional career and had not swiped double-digit bases since the 2016 season. Injuries on the roster put Estrada at three different infield positions and he fell a game short qualifying as an outfielder for the draft. The Giants are already looking at him to be that Ben Zobrist-like player for 2023 now that he has shown can do more than just hold down the end of the bench. That versatility will help prop up his fantasy value as the overall profile still looks rather fringy despite the surprising numbers this past season.

Grissom began the season with High-A Rome before being promoted to Double-A Mississippi. Atlanta summoned him in early August, and he filled in admirably, posting a .291/.353/.440 line in 156 plate appearances. However, a .163/.250/.163 stretch for two weeks in September cost Grissom his starting job for the last ten games and into the playoffs. Grissom's early success was driven by a high BABIP, so regression was expected. He fanned a little more in the bigs, but that's to be expected. Even though he was mostly a shortstop in the minors, Grissom played second with the Braves. With Ozzie Albies back in the fold after missing extended time due to injury in 2022, Grissom should get the first chance at stepping in as the everyday shortstop in place of Dansby Swanson, who signed with the Cubs over the winter. Grissom is looking at a long and productive career, but his plausible outcomes this season range from a full-time job to struggling in the spring and opening the season with Triple-A Gwinnett.

Segura sustained a fractured finger in late May and was limited to 98 games in 2022, and he was solid when healthy with 10 home runs and 13 stolen bases for a 105 wRC+. The injury resulted in him playing the fewest games of his career as he had previously never played fewer than 125 contests, not counting his rookie campaign and the shortened 2020 season. He continues to provide an above-average bat at second base, but his counting stats have dwindled over the past few years. He had a 15.0 percent strikeout rate and .305 BABIP, which is in line with his career numbers. Segura should be able to maintain that batting profile for at least another year, though his fantasy potential remains limited beyond a strong batting average. He should have an everyday role after signing with the Marlins, though he's set to work at third base, where his bat doesn't play as well relative to the position.

Urias was set to open the season as Milwaukee's primary third baseman after a breakout 2021, but he spent the first month of the season on the IL with a quadriceps injury and struggled to find much consistency once healthy. He entered September with a .702 OPS and was relegated to a part-time role, but he came alive across his final 23 games and posted a .328/.416/.507 slash line. In the end Urias wasn't able to fully replicate his previous season but came close in most of his numbers with an 11 percent walk rate and 21 percent strikeout rate, though by the time he turned on the jets many fantasy owners had likely already moved on. Urias will turn 26 years old in June and should once again be the favorite to start at the hot corner in 2023, though any job security is likely flimsy given he's coming off an up-and-down campaign.

McNeil entered the season with little job security after he posted a .679 OPS in 2021 while the Mets signed Eduardo Escobar during the offseason and returned Robinson Cano from suspension, but McNeil turned things around in a resounding way and led MLB with a .326 average. He hit .319 across his first three big-league campaigns before he dropped to .251 in 2021, and in 2022 he showed the previous poor season was an aberration. The second baseman still didn't hit for much power with nine home runs, but he struck out at only a 10.4 percent clip. McNeil's counting stats were nothing special at 73 runs and 62 RBI, but that could be attributed to the fact he spent most of the year in the bottom half of the order. Leadoff man Brandon Nimmo is headed for free agency, and if he continues his career elsewhere McNeil would be a logical candidate to take over atop the order for the Mets.

Garcia opened 2022 with Triple-A Rochester but was promoted to the big leagues at the start of June and had a .275/.295/.408 slash line with seven home runs across 93 games for the Nationals. He initially took over the starting job at shortstop but shifted to the keystone once CJ Abrams was deemed ready to go. Garcia had a manageable strikeout rate (22.3 percent), but an abysmal walk rate (3.0 percent) isn't sustainable for a big-league regular. Garcia should receive plenty of run in 2023 with the Nationals trying to determine what the young infielder can provide, but he'll need to show more than solid contact skills to warrant a regular role long term. He also has only eight steals since the 2019 minor-league season, so he won't provide much value on the basepaths in addition to his low power.

For the second straight season, Marte dealt with hamstring issues. In 2021, he incurred two IL stints, but played well. Last year, Marte played hurt and avoided the IL, but his production suffered. His 18.1% strikeout rate was the highest of his career and 41st percentile sprint speed dropped his infield hit rate to its lowest mark. Marte hit a career high number of fly balls, but with a lower exit velocity, fueling a career low .276 BABIP. Marte is entrenched as the Diamondbacks second baseman, though he played a lot of designated hitter last season to manage his hamstring woes. He's posted a 150 and 140 wRC+ in two of the previous four seasons, so he can be productive, but two consecutive summers dealing with lingering hamstring issues is concerning. A clever approach is buying the injury dip but taking advantage of so many players having second base eligibility and baking a hedge into your lineup.

Arraez has elite contact skills which helped him win the AL batting title and make his first All-Star Game last season. Arraez led baseball in contact rate (94.1%) and had the fewest swings and misses (2.5%). While he hit a career-high eight home runs, he doesn't have much power and adds few steals, which limits his fantasy value. He has a decent, but not great glove, which has given him positional flexibility but not a set position. He settled in mostly at first base (65 games) with the Twins having several injuries at the position. He did wear down late in the season (.277 with a .678 OPS over his last 37 games) as he struggled with a sore hamstring in September. His knees have been a frequent problem in the past. If he can stay healthy, Arraez will likely resume his near everyday utility role and be an impact player in batting average. Being traded to the Marlins shouldn't significantly affect his outlook, though he should now be expected to play more second base in 2023.

Rojas suffered a Grade 2 right oblique strain in the spring, keeping him out about a month. Rojas finished with 125 games, a few less than the previous season, but he posted similar numbers while stealing more bases. He doesn't do anything especially well, but Rojas does a little of everything. That said, last season's 19.2 strikeout rate was a career-low, so if he maintains that, Rojas' contact will be above average and provide a solid floor. Last season, his HR/FB dipped, but a higher fly ball rate salvaged his power. There's some latent pop in his swing of Rojas can sustain the elevated fly ball rate while hitting them with a little more authority. Pulling it together, steals are the key as Rojas has a chance to benefit from the new rules. The signing of Evan Longoria could squeeze him for playing time, though the veteran is likely to see a fair amount of action at DH. Combining Rojas' speed with dual second and third base eligibility and he could be an undervalued asset, especially for those looking for mid to late round speed.

Machado delivered a career-best 152 wRC+ with 37 doubles, 32 home runs, 102 RBI and 100 runs to power the Padres offense in 2022. It's the second straight season the third baseman has cracked 100 RBI, and it's the sixth time in his career he's topped 30 homers. He surprisingly produced his worst strikeout rate at 20.7 percent, but a .337 BABIP helped him to a .298 average despite a .264 xBA. Machado will turn 31 years old in July and should continue to be a major producer near the top of San Diego's lineup in 2023, though his numbers could fall a bit if he's unable to again significantly outperform his expected figures.

Riley now has 3.16 years of major league service (trust us, don't look it up) and has quickly established himself as one of the premier power hitters in baseball with elite metrics in barrel percentage, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and awesome walk-up music. The expected stats from 2021 told us the .300 average was an outlier, so the 30-point drop in batting average did not come as much of a surprise. That said, he does profile as someone who should see some type of bump in batting average with the shift rules changing this season. Sure, he doesn't walk that often and his strikeouts are a bit on the high side, but he's a modern day Mike Schmidt at the plate who may eventually need a new defensive position given his limitations at the hot corner. He is a solid four-category performer who continues to improve his draft status and finished this season as the 21st most valuable player in standard formats. There is a strong chance he does not make it to the third round this season, so plan accordingly.

Save for the pandemic season, Arenado has totaled at least 30 homers with 100 RBI every season since 2015. He posted seasons with a higher wOBA in Colorado, but his 151 wRC+ was the best of his career. Arenado's defense was again stellar. The main differences between last season and his first with St. Louis were fewer strikeouts and more walks along with better BABIP fortune. His batted ball and Statcast numbers were virtually identical. Arenado missed a career high 14 games, but most were when he served a short suspension, was on the restricted list and on paternity leave so durability remains high. Arenado had a chance to opt out of his contract, but he declined. Playing in Busch Stadium could hurt his numbers towards the end of the remaining five years he has left on his contract, but there is currently no indication of a decline. What Arenado lacks in speed, he makes up for in reliability.

Muncy's fantastic 2021 season ended with the news of his elbow not healing as expected and his draft value was diminished by the looming concerns Muncy may need TJ surgery and miss the 2023 season. He ended up playing nearly full-time and came close to matching his 2021 plate appearances total, but there was a noticeable decline in his production as he struggled at the plate with an extreme flyball (63%) and pull (49%) approach at the plate. The new shift rules can fix some of the concerns, but not if he continues to hit flyballs at that rate. The biggest difference between the two seasons was how Muncy handled the fastball: he hit .307 and slugged .693 off fastballs in 2021 but those numbers dramatically declined to .196 and .408 respectively in 2022 and the league fed him a steady diet of fastballs. He and the club worked out a two-year extension in August with a club option in the second year so if the Dodgers are willing to invest in his talents again, maybe we should feel comfortable giving him another chance. After all, only he, Pete Alonso, and Mike Trout have as many as three seasons of 35+ homers over the past five seasons.

While it's not quite fair to say he has no chance outside of Coors Field, McMahon is a .215/.301/.351 career hitter on the road. He has been able to shave his strikeout rate in recent years from around 30% to closer to 25%, and McMahon has now reached 20 home runs in each of his last three full seasons. Even so, on any other team, McMahon may not garner much attention. He has utility in leagues that allow you to stream him for his home series, but McMahon should not be viewed as a player to set and forget as the road numbers will really drag him down. Last March, McMahon signed a long-term deal with the Rockies, so he's not going anywhere. Deploy him carefully and McMahon can provide value thanks to the Coors bump. He's now third-base only in many leagues after making only 10 appearances at second base in 2022.

Hayes' power dropped, but his patience improved slightly, and he hit the ball with a little more authority than the previous campaign. A low 28.8% fly ball rate plus a 6.3% HR/FB mark limited Hayes to just six long balls, but if he can loft a few more batted balls while maintaining a 47% hard-hit rate, there's double-digit power in his stick. Hayes' minor league track record indicates he can shave a few points off his 21.8% strikeout rate, boosting production. The key to Hayes' fantasy potential is running as he swiped 20 bags in 25 tries last season, which is in the territory expected to benefit from the new rules. Injuries may have slowed Hayes growth as he dealt with a wrist issue most of 2021, then played through knee, back and shoulder woes last season. The latent power may manifest, but it's best to consider it a bonus and pay for steals with a batting average high enough not to hurt.

Escobar signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Mets in November 2021, and he delivered a down year during his first season in New York. It was a tale of two halves for the veteran infielder, as he posted a .676 OPS prior to the All-Star break and an .825 OPS during the second half. In total he finished 2022 with a .240/.295/.430 slash line, 20 home runs and 69 RBI, with it being the fifth straight full season in which he's hit at least 20 long balls. His 23.8 percent strikeout rate was the worst of his career, though he also had the highest hard-hit rate (37.4 percent) of his career. Escobar hasn't shown a notable decline entering his age-34 season and should be a solid, if unexciting, option at third base for fantasy managers in 2023.

Bohm posted a .647 OPS and 26.6 percent strikeout rate as a sophomore in 2021, but he took a major step forward last season and had a 17.4 percent strikeout rate and .280/.315/.398 slash line. He played in 152 games and totaled 13 home runs, 72 RBI, 79 runs and two stolen bases, though his defense at third base remains subpar. Less encouraging was a drop in his already-low walk rate (down to 5.0 percent), which somewhat mitigated his improved average. Bohm saw his O-Swing rate rise 4.5 percentage points but still significantly improved his contact rate from 2021, and it seems unlikely he's able to continue that trend long term. Entering his age-26 season, Bohm's low power and minimal work on the basepaths limit his fantasy potential, though his .282 average with RISP could again lead to solid counting stats.

Flores set a career high with 151 games and 602 plate appearances, but it was ill-timed as he registered his worst season since 2018. Flores' 17.1% strikeout rate was below league average, but it was his worst ever. His BABIP is generally low, but last season's .246 was a career nadir. He managed to club a career-high 19 homers, but that was compiling, not skills. Like most righthanded hitters, Flores hits southpaws better than righties, but last season he struggled with the platoon advantage, though he also fared worse than usual facing same-side pitching. Aside from less contact, Flores lofted a career-high 46% fly balls with declining exit velocity, which was the impetus for the drop in BABIP. There is a good chance Flores will play less this season, so if his skills revert to previous levels, his mediocre power and absence of speed has limited mixed league allure but can be useful in NL-only formats.

Like a lot of Detroit hitters, Candelario mostly struggled in 2022. He batted just .159 in April and .210 in May, and while he was a bit better later in the year, Candelario never really got going, finishing with a .217 average. His playing time was trimmed a bit as a result, as he went from 149 games played in 2021 to 124 in 2022. Candelario's OPS dipped precipitously as well, falling from .794 to .633. The new Tigers regime non-tendered him, but he landed on his feet with a one-year, $5 million deal in Washington, where he could play every day. He has at least shown that he's a solid if not spectacular big leaguer, batting .271 or better in 2020 and 2021. He also hit 16 home runs and tallied 67 RBI during that 2021 campaign, and now Candelario goes from the worst park for home runs in the league per Statcast's park factors (Detroit) to the 11th best park (Washington).

Villar wasn't a highly-touted prospect when he received his first big-league call-up last July at the age of 25, but he spent most of the remainder of the season in the majors and finished with a .231/.331/.445 slash line (good for a 124 wRC+), homering nine times in 54 games. While that performance suggests he may have been unfairly overlooked, a closer investigation of his numbers raises skepticism. Statcast suggests he got quite lucky, giving him a .189 xBA, with his 32.0 K% the primary culprit. While his contact was infrequent, however, it was at least of fairly good quality, as his 9.1% barrel rate was above-average. He also has a track record of success in the minors, posting a .943 OPS across the two highest levels since the start of 2021. There's at least something there for Villar at the plate, but the total package might not amount to a big-league regular, as he doesn't offer anything on the basepaths and doesn't have a strong defensive reputation.

Wisdom continued to be a boom-or-bust fantasy option in 2022. A year after turning heads with 28 home runs, he followed it up with 25 long balls. However, Wisdom struggled to make consistent contact, as he batted just .207 and struck out 34.3 percent of the time. In 2021, he struck out more than 40 percent of the time. Going forward, it looks like fantasy managers will simply need to sacrifice batting average for power if they decide to roster Wisdom. He did at least show a slight uptick in stolen bases, as he registered a career-high eight stolen bases on 12 attempts, which was also easily a career best. That's not a huge number, but if he can get to 10 steals or more, it would give a little more depth to his game. Wisdom will turn 32 during the 2023 season, so even if he does run a bit more, he's unlikely to change too much as a player. The power is nice, but there are definitely more complete fantasy options available for the corner outfield spots.

Baty has long been an exit velocity darling and registered a 113 mph max EV (89th percentile) in just 31 MLB events during a brief cup of coffee after posting an elite 36.1 Hard% in the minors. His 24.8 K% at Double-A and Triple-A was fine for a 22-year-old slugger who also walked at an 11.7% clip. Hitting the ball hard and controlling the strike zone are major parts of the success equation for a 6-foot-3, 210-pound lefty slugger. The big question is whether he can get the ball in the air enough to maximize his power. When factoring in context, easily his best run as a pro was the 89 games he played last year at Double-A (160 wRC+), but that was also the only time he has logged a groundball rate below 51% (42.6%) above rookie ball. That run at Double-A accounted for 84% of his season, so we shouldn't read too much into his groundball rate spiking again at Triple-A and the majors, but it's undoubtedly the biggest stat to track with Baty in 2023. He tore a ligament in his right thumb at the end of August but should be ready for spring training. Eduardo Escobar is the incumbent at the hot corner, but between designated hitter (for Baty and Daniel Vogelbach) and second base (for Escobar and Luis Guillorme), there should be regular playing time available if he performs.

Wendle had a .744 OPS over the past four years with the Rays before he was acquired by the Marlins in November of 2021, but he underwhelmed during his first season in Miami with a .259/.297/.360 slash line in 101 games. He still provided strong defense while splitting time between shortstop, third base and second base, but he struggled to lift at the plate with a 55 percent groundball rate, up nearly eight percentage points from his time in Tampa Bay. Wendle is a strong candidate for a rebound in 2023 and could return to being an above-average offensive player, with his quality defense providing a solid floor for his playing time. However, Miami's acquisitions of Jean Segura and Luis Arraez shake up the heirarchy, and Wendle now appears set to begin 2023 in a utility role with Arraez potentially at second base, Segura at third and Jazz Chisholm at shortstop.

Anderson was non-tendered by the Marlins after the season and latched on with the Brewers on a one-year deal, and he's expected to primarily play third base while also being an option in the outfield and at first base. Anderson has struggled through injuries each of the past two seasons while retaining a disciplined approach at the plate but seeing his numbers slide each of the past three seasons while he played through the injuries. The 20 homers of 2019 were clearly a product of the baseball being used that season, and he may have a hard time reaching those heights again with Milwaukee's park factor more recently favoring pitchers. He will likely end up in right field sooner rather than later as his range is declining but the arm is still elite. His splits have truly been all over the place, but he has historically handled righties better than lefties which should help keep him out of a short-side platoon situation. There is still good in his bat buried underneath the recent scar tissue, and he's an intriguing option should he land in the right place this winter.

Turner finished the season as the sixth best fantasy player in standard formats with another strong season as a five-category contributor. The drop in batting average was offset by a surprising surge in RBI thanks to him hitting leadoff less frequently, but, more importantly, he avoided the injured list for just the second time in the past five full seasons. His speed buys him hits others cannot afford, as his 33 infield hits helped prop up his average as he struggled with breaking balls (.247 average) throughout the season. Even as he approaches 30, he retains his elite speed, and back-to-back full big-volume seasons ease the health concerns that followed him in previous years. It is scary to think what Turner could accomplish in steals under the new rules, as he was already one of the best thieves by success rate in the league. He landed in Philadelphia in free agency, which is close to a neutral move when factoring in the ballparks and lineups of the Phillies and Dodgers (where righty power played way up, per Statcast).

Cruz is a walking highlight reel. He is a physical specimen at 6-foot-7, 210 pounds and packs some of the loudest tools you're ever likely to see on a baseball field. In late August, Cruz hit a batted ball at 122.4 mph, setting a new record for the Statcast era. His sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile last season. As expected, there were some swing-and-miss issues (34.9 K%), though he shaved the strikeouts down over the season's final month and really took off (.288/.359/.525). The upside is obvious with the former top prospect, but it's important to remember that he's still just 24 years old and will be playing for a Pirates team without much around him in one of the game's worst ballparks for offense.

Adames's 2022 outlook reminded fantasy managers how the shortstop was two different players: the struggling Home Willy at Tropicana Field and the awesome Road Willy away from it. Adames certainly enjoyed a full season in his new home as he hit 18 of his 31 homers in Milwaukee while setting a career high in RBIs and steals while finishing as the seventh most valuable shorstop on the season in standard formats. The new home digs helped him with homers, but switching leagues and divisions threw in a level of unfamilarity which led to batting average challenges both at home and on the road despite his third consecutive reduction in strikeout rate as his challenges with non-fastballs continue to linger. Adames is in a contract year, and has proven his merits defensively and has shown the ability to hit for power, but he remains a batting average risk until he shows he can effectively handle non-fastballs.

Lindor's first year with the Mets in 2021 was the worst of his career, but he rebounded last season with a 127 wRC+ in 161 games. The 29-year-old totaled 26 home runs, 107 RBI, 98 runs and 16 stolen bases, and it's the first time in his career he's driven in more than 100 runs. The shortstop's resurgence played a major role in pushing New York to 101 wins and back to the playoffs, as he looked more like the player he was for Cleveland from 2017-19 than the player the Mets got in Year 1. However, Lindor also had a career-worst 18.8 percent strikeout rate and career-high .301 BABIP, which could temper expectations on him building on the 2022 production.

Swanson has developed into one of the most durable and reliable players in the league, let alone at shortstop. Swanson and former teammate Matt Olson were the only players to appear in all 162 games. In fact, Swanson has missed only two games since 2020. Swanson's skills are stable and mostly solid, though a 26 percent strikeout rate drains his batting average below the elite at the position. However, Swanson has at least 25 homers each of the past two seasons and doubled his stolen base output to 18. He's in the range of players likely to benefit from the new rules, so 20 bags are plausible. Swanson's defense has been inconsistent, with last season's ranking as above average. Swanson is a classic compiler, exhibiting solid but not elite skills, buoyed by volume. If he hits near the top of the order, Swanson has top-five shortstop potential. Beware, after three straight solid seasons from Swanson, his price is on the rise. Playing half his games at Wrigley Field shouldn't significantly affect his production after he signed with the Cubs, as the venue is mostly neutral in park factors.

Bogaerts has been consistently productive without an impressive Statcast page. Last season, he again parlayed outstanding plate coverage into a solid campaign, posting a 134 wRC+, the second highest of his career. Bogaerts' homers usually emanate from turning on mistakes, but he was unable to do it as often in 2022, perhaps due to lingering shoulder and other assorted woes. The drop in power was mitigated by a .362 BABIP, above his career .336 mark. However, it was driven by a .356 BABIP on grounders, over 50 points above his career norm. Defense has always been an issue, but last season Bogaerts vowed to improve, and he did, finishing third for the AL Gold Glove at shortstop. Bogaerts opted out of his contract and landed a massive 11-year deal with San Diego. His skills will play anywhere, but there is no denying this is a downgrade in park factors for the right-handed hitter. Nagging injuries have been an issue, but Bogaerts is still one of the best fantasy shortstops.

Tovar has only played nine games in the majors and five games at Triple-A, but the Rockies have been invested in him as their shortstop of the future since they bought him a house in 2020 when he couldn't return home to Venezuela during the pandemic. He had impressed at times in the minors prior to last season, most notably logging a 119 wRC+ as a 19-year-old at Single-A in 2021, but 2022 was certainly his breakout campaign. Tovar hit .318/.386/.545 with 13 home runs, 17 steals on 20 attempts and a 64:25 K:BB in 66 games as one of the youngest players at Double-A. Hip and groin injuries sidelined Tovar from late-June until mid-September, when he returned and went directly to Triple-A for a week before spending the final two weeks of the year with the big club. An over-aggressive approach has been the one offensive knock on Tovar, but so far he has mostly made it work. There's a chance he goes through a significant adjustment period against MLB pitching as a 21-year-old, but it seems pretty clear the Rockies will give him every opportunity in spring training to break camp as the starting shortstop. Tovar isn't a burner (57th percentile sprint speed) and doesn't hit the ball very hard (22.5 Hard% in the minors, 106 mph max EV in the majors), but he has been productive in games while being extremely young for most of his minor-league levels.

Hoerner's role to begin 2022 was murky after Chicago added Andrelton Simmons in March, but the veteran shortstop battled injuries and played in only 35 games before he was cut loose in August. Hoerner worked as the Cubs' primary shortstop and was a plus defender, and he finished the year with a .281/.327/.410 slash line, 10 home runs, 55 RBI and 20 stolen bases. Entering the year, he had only three homers and eight stolen in 112 career games, so the improvements in those areas are a significant development for his fantasy appeal. Hoerner should have a starting spot in the middle infield to open 2023, regardless of whether or not the Cubs bring in a shortstop via free agency.

A strong Grapefruit League season earned Stott a spot on the Phillies' Opening Day roster. He played sparingly, getting some reps and third and second. After posting a .114/.173/.129 line over his first 25 games spanning 70 plate appearances, Stott was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He was recalled two weeks later, again playing sporadically. Beginning in June, Stott was installed as a regular, splitting time between second and shortstop the rest of the season. From that point, Stott slashed .258/.318/.403 with a dozen steals. He doesn't hit the ball with much authority, but Stott puts it in play and has 91st percentile sprint speed. He's slated to be a regular in 2023, and the signing of Trea Turner means he'll slot in at second base. Josh Harrison and Edmundo Sosa are also in the mix as utility options off the bench, so there may not be a significant lease if Stott struggles early in 2023. Stott's homers are capped in the low teens, but he may run more with the new rules.

Crawford is in the final year of his most recent deal with San Franciso, the only organization he has ever known since geing taken in the 4th round of the 2008 draft. The perennial defensive wizard was not able to repeat his surprise offensive season of 2021, but rather fell back to his below-average offensive years of 2017-2019 as the taxes of playing a high profile defensive position begin to pile up on him. Crawford did miss some time with knee inflammation in the summer and his offense somewhat recovered upon his return as he hit .256/.324/.363 after his return compared to .215/297/.332 before going to the IL. The plate discipline skills are as stable as ever but the outcomes which surprised all of us in 2021 clearly look like a one-last gasp outlier more than any kind of new norm for him. It briefly appeared Crawford would be moving to third base in 2023, but he'll remain at shortstop since Carlos Correa's megadeal with the Giants fell through.

Rojas took a step backward in his fantasy value in 2022 as he attempted to play through a wrist injury which eventually required offseason surgery. Rojas has been a decent end game pick for his playing time, some steals, and a bit of batting average help but only the steals were present last season as the injury sapped his other offensive skills making him very tough to carry in any fantasy format. He should be healthy this season and remain a fixture in the Miami lineup in the final year of his deal as the club has said they want more high contact hitters in the lineup. That skill has been his calling card throughout his career at the plate while the defense has shone throughout, but even if it all comes together this should be a bottom of the lineup hitter and only rosterable in deeper league or single-league formats on draft day. Being traded to the Dodgers potentially sets Rojas up to serve as the starting shortstop in a much better lineup, though it's possible he also ends up as more of a utility piece. Regardless, he doesn't seem likely to move the needle in a major way for fantasy managers.

After looking overmatched the previous season, Kim settled in as the Padres regular shortstop, posting a 105 wRC+ while playing excellent defense. His biggest strides came against curveballs and sliders. In his rookie season, Kim fanned at a 35% clip against breaking pitches, but last season he lowered it to 17%. Kim fanned at a 19% rate both years facing fastballs. He doesn't hit the ball hard, but Kim puts it in play with a pull approach allowing him to take advantage of the shorter distances down the left field line in Petco Park. Kim was successful on 12 of 14 stolen base attempts. He's a candidate to run more as he further acclimated to MLB pitching. It's unclear where Kim will play, as the Padres have some moving parts, including the return of Fernando Tatis, who may move off shortstop. If Kim is a regular, he's mixed-league worthy, but be ready if he doesn't play as much as last season.

Turang's prospect star faded after a pedestrian 2021 campaign, but he put himself back on the map last year, hitting more homers than he totaled over his first three seasons in the minors while also stealing 34 bases in 36 attempts. Questions remain about his fantasy potential, but he will likely get a chance to hit his way onto the big-league roster during spring training. The starting shortstop position is filled in Milwaukee, but second base is very unsettled, and Turang could get a shot to show what he can do there if he breaks camp with the big club.

Lingering shoulder discomfort delayed Ahmed's 2022 debut for a couple of weeks. While on the COVID-19 list in late May, Ahmed experienced more shoulder soreness and was ultimately shut down followed by season-ending surgery. Ahmed was more productive than the prior year in the 17 games he played, but it's a small sample. Geraldo Perdomo took over at shortstop for Ahmed, but he finished with a .547 OPS so the two should battle for the job in the spring. Even if he prevails, Ahmed's production doesn't move the mixed league needle. He's best suited for NL-only formats.

The baseball world wondered what Acuna would look like coming off his July 2021 ACL tear. Our answer: He remains one of the most dynamic players in the game. There was no easing back into the running game, as Acuna stole two bases in his return from the injured list April 28 and swiped a total of nine bags in his first 20 games of 2022. The dog days of summer were tough on Acuna, and he finished the year with a .413 SLG, over 100 points below his career mark. However, he still ranked in the top eight percent of the league in all of hard-hit percentage, xwOBA and xSLG, per Statcast. His launch angle was down close to eight points from his prior two seasons. Now that he's further removed from the knee surgery, and perhaps with a few tweaks, Acuna should be able to tap into more power and return to the elite tier of fantasy contributors.

Tatis may possibly be the biggest fantasy wildcard of 2023. He will be coming off an 80-game suspension for PEDs that will end earlier than initially projected since the Padres went deep into the NL playoffs. Tatis is now projected to be back on the active roster in late April, but he has also undergone two different surgeries this winter. He finally had that troublesome shoulder operated on as well as his left wrist. You add in the complexity of missing the entire 2022 season with his off-the-field antics leading to injury, the suspension and two surgeries, and we are left with the question of how early someone will take the risk on a top-five talent in a draft. The upside remains huge, but nobody can be blamed for passing on this maelstrom of risks, as we have rarely seen so many red flags at one time with a player, let alone one of his caliber. The projections will likely look conservative for his talents, but with good reason. Simply put, he is going to make or break many fantasy teams in 2023.

Despite a two-week IL stint with a cracked rib, Betts parlayed a career high 47.7 percent fly ball rate into 35 homers, a personal best. The downside was a lower BABIP for the fourth straight season, as Betts' uppercut swing decreased his groundball exit velocity, which torpedoed his groundball BABIP. However, a low 16.3 percent strikeout rate limited damage, allowing Betts to register a 144 wRC+, the third best of his career. Betts' sprint speed fell to 49th percentile, but he still collected double-digit pilfers for the eighth straight campaign. In his salad days, Betts was one of the best, if not the top, fantasy batters, worthy of the top overall pick. Less durability, a lower average and fewer steals have conspired to keep him out of that discussion, but he's still in the first-round chat. Since 2016, no one has scored more runs than Betts. Him hitting at or near the top of a potent lineup should keep that intact.

Harris did not come out of nowhere, but no one expected him to reach the majors so soon, let alone win NL Rookie of the Year. He was slashing .305/.372/.506 with Double-A Mississippi when he received the call in late May. Harris started out slow, but the Braves' patience paid off. His 24.3 percent strikeout rate and 4.8 percent walk rate suggest Harris still has work to do, but a 75th percentile hard hit rate paired with 95th percentile spring speed and a 95.2 fly ball average exit velocity is the blueprint for a five-category cornerstone. Harris' platoon splits are a slight concern, as he posted a .943 OPS against righties and a .649 mark facing southpaws. Just 22-years-old, Harris can surely narrow the gap, but in the short term, he may hit low in the order with a lefty on the hill. It's risky investing top-tier draft capital in a still unproven player, but the indicators point toward him being a perennial first round/$40 player.

Baseball is an incredibly difficult game, and even players with Hall of Fame skill sets will struggle for stretches. At the end of June, Soto was batting just .224. It leaked in the media that Soto had turned down the Nationals' 15-year, $440 million offer, setting the stage for a blockbuster trade that sent Soto out West for an all-time prospect haul. Batting average, as we know, has its limitations, and in Soto's case his .242 season mark is downright misleading. He still hit the ball with incredible authority and chased pitches outside of the zone at a lower rate than anyone. The Padres did not run much last season under manager Bob Melvin, but everything else sets up well for a big-time rebound in Soto's first full season in San Diego.

Carroll was part of the new trend in 2022 of the game's best prospects in the upper levels debuting for the final month, rather than early the following season. He laid waste to every minor-league stop along the way, showcasing an extremely fantasy-friendly skillset. Carroll has played in some hitter-friendly environments, but his .240 ISO in the majors was his worst such mark since rookie ball in 2019. He may never hit 40 home runs, but power will be a strength (39.0 Hard% in the minors). His 100th percentile sprint speed will also be a strength - he stole 33 bases on 39 attempts last year. Carroll had a .777 OPS against lefties and a 1.062 OPS against righties in the minors in 2022, but considering he is already the Diamondbacks' best position player and a strong defender, it would be surprising if he fell into a strict platoon. His most common lineup spots were sixth, seventh and eighth, but he could assume a spot in the top third sometime this season. The trade of Daulton Varsho to Toronto also opens up center field in Arizona, with Lourdes Gurriel set to play left. Carroll had a plus-four DRS in just 32 games last year, and that strong level of defense in center field should afford him a longer leash if he struggles early in 2023.

Schwarber is sort of like the modern-day Adam Dunn in that he's a three-true-outcomes player who is perennially underrated because of his low batting average. He's also not a good defender. With 46 home runs last season, Schwarber led the National League, finishing second in baseball behind only Aaron Judge. Surprisingly, Schwarber added a new element to his game in his first season with the Phillies in the form of stolen bases. He was 10-for-11 on the basepaths after going 4-for-8 over the prior three seasons, so it would seem one of the Philadelphia coaches got through to him on how to read opposing pitchers. Now entering his age-30 season, Schwarber should be celebrated for what he is. His power contributions more than make up for the low average and the steals are just a cherry on top.

Marte did well enough in his debut with the Mets even though many will likely label it a disappointment for what he did not do. Marte's regular season was prematurely ended with a broken finger after being hit by a pitch and he missed 34 games in all in the regular season. His run production numbers were close to what he did between Miami and Oakland in 2021, but there was a dramatic drop in both his stolen base attempts as well as his success rate as his success fell from 90% to 67%. Buck Showalter has never been a huge fan of aggressively stealing games, so that kind of success rate could put a cap on what Marte does in 2023 even with the new rules in play. He did bounce back from a poor success rate in 2018 by converting 86% of his attempts from 2019-2021 so he absolutely deserves another crack at it. The next plateau will be him exceeding 550 plate appearances, something he has done but once in the previous six full seasons.

After parlaying a more aggressive approach the prior year into his best season, O'Neill reverted to exhibiting more selectivity and his production suffered. Maybe it was injury-related as O'Neill dealt with shoulder, hamstring and leg issues over the course of the season. His strikeout rate decreased to a career-low 26.9%, but his average exit velocity dipped 3.2 mph and the ever-important average exit velocity on fly balls fell 4.1 mph. The litany of injuries limited O'Neill to just 96 games, though they didn't inhibit running as O'Neill stole 14 bases, one fewer than 2021 in 42 fewer games. Getting a read on O'Neill is difficult since he's displayed two different skill sets, perhaps due to injuries. As such, O'Neill remains a high-risk, high-reward option, with both health and performance questions. O'Neill's power/speed potential is enticing, but it's dangerous to chase.

McCarthy began the 2023 season on the big-league roster as a reserve and was up and down a couple times before ultimately settling into a regular role in the second half. A supplemental first-round pick by Arizona in 2018, McCarthy showed a great deal of improvement with his bat-to-ball skills during his time at Triple-A last season and those improvements carried over, fueling his .300/.360/..426 line after the break. Best of all for fantasy players, McCarthy racked up 23 steals in total across 99 games (354 plate appearances) while only getting caught stealing three times. His sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile, though the Statcast numbers throw cold water on his plate production. Regardless the Diamondbacks will want to see what they have in McCarthy, who should continue to have the green light given his success rate. The 25-year-old showed that he can hold his own against lefty pitching (.764 OPS).

The Cardinals' outfield may be a bit crowded, but the drafting public expects Walker to be a significant factor in 2023. A former third baseman who could also fit nicely at first base, Walker now patrols right field due to the Cardinals having two future Hall of Famers at the infield corners. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound right-handed slugger posted a .306/.388/.510 slash line with 19 home runs, 22 steals (on 27 attempts) and a 21.6 K% as the youngest qualified hitter at Double-A. He capped his season by slashing .286/.367/.558 with five home runs, three steals and a 23:10 K:BB in 21 Arizona Fall League games. Walker is a top-five prospect for dynasty leagues, and his 70-grade raw power is his most bankable long-term tool. He moves well for his size, but he is not a Julio Rodriguez-caliber athlete or prospect, contrary to some public comparisons. It's possible he will win a job out of spring training, but it's not a certainty.

We have seen the best of times and the worst of times with Castellanos the past two seasons. He was as amazing to have on a fantasy team in 2021 as he was utterly frustrating to roster in 2022. The move to Philly was supposed to be one which would soften the blow of leaving the comforts of Cincy, yet Castellanos was dreadful in nearly every aspect of the game. He lost nearly 50 points of batting average, nearly 200 points of slugging, and lost the ability to get on base as his low walk rate found a new low with his new club. The 7 steals were a career best, but that is the only silver lining in an otherwise forgettable season. Let's not forget, his terrible defense had to stay in the field because Bryce Harper needed to DH to stay in the lineup with his elbow troubles. Squinting into his expected numbers and secondary numbers offer little insights into a turnaround this coming season as his profile went from bright red to dark blue in many areas on StatCast in a hurry. He is too young to accelerate in the aging curve like this, but there truly is not any one excuse to explain this rapid decline. The signing itself was a poor fit for the club, but they made the World Series so all is well that ends well?

2022 was another year of the perpetual rebuild in Pittsburgh where little went well, but that did not stop Reynolds from building off his successful 2021 campaign. The batting average fell as Reynolds continues a cycle of BABIP peaks and valleys year after year, but he set a career high in homers and steals while compiling for an otherwise dreadful lineup. Only he, Cal Raleigh, and Byron Buxton hit as many as 25 homers while failing to score 75+ runs or drive in 65+. Buxton played in many fewer games than Reynolds while the rest of Raleigh's profile is distant from Reynolds's production. The low run production just speaks to the surrounding cast issues for Reynolds which will continue unless the club trades him now that he is into his arbitration years. Their track record says they will, and a relocation would be a nitrous-oxide boost to his fantasy value in 2023.

Was this Cardinals' Devil Magic or just good development by St. Louis? Nootbaar inched his way up the organizational depth chart since entering the organization in 2018 and has shown an ability to hit for average and get on base in the minors but that did not initially translate into the same success at the big-league level. He certainly accepted his walks as a rookie in 2021, but he has not yet hit for average in nearly 500 plate appearances at the big-league level. He did, however, show surprising power in 2022, banging out nearly as many homers (18 between Triple-A and MLB) than he had from 2018-21 (20.) The StatCast sliders show plenty of bright Cardinal Red in many of the right places, but things get funky when you dive into the splits and see 13 of his 14 homers came against righties. However, Nootbaar hit .217 against righties and .273 against lefties when left in there to face them. He had similar R/L splits in 2021 but no such troubles in Triple-A, so it could be a small case of reverse splits. Either way, he is trending in a very good direction and has gone from 2022 deep sleeper to 2023 potential five-category producer if that average against righties adjusts.

Happ had an interesting season in that his homers came down, but his overall production increased. He reduced his strikeout rate by six full percentage points, and that certainly helped the 45-point imporvement in his batting average as that .271 final figure was the best in six seasons as a big leaguer. Happ also broke the 70 barrier in both runs and RBIs for the first time in his career. The .336 BABIP was the second-highest of his career and his expected stats are not very supportive of the achieved outcomes in 2022. His .305 average against lefties was the first time in five seasons in which Happy has hit above .250 against southpaws as the switch-hitter does most of offensive damage as a lefty. His approach at the plate would be better served hitting first or second in a lineup, but the Cubs primarily used him in the third spot of the lineup last season. That could change should the Cubs alter their roster this winter so be willing to adjust runs or RBI expectations accordingly.