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Judge and the Yankees were unable to agree on a contract extension prior to the 2022 campaign, and the slugger delivered a recording-breaking season in his final year before free agency. The outfielder, who will turn 31 years old in April, set an American League record with 62 home runs and also totaled 111 walks, 131 RBI and 133 runs scored with a .311/.425/.686 slash line. The thing that really vaulted him into rarefied fantasy air was a surprise 16 steals on 19 attempts after previously having a career-high nine steals back in 2017. He endured his share of injury issues in the past but played in a career-high 157 games and has missed only 19 contests across the past two seasons. Judge is unlikely to deliver a repeat performance in 2023, though he should remain one of the most productive hitters in MLB after landing a huge nine-year deal to stay in pinstripes. If he remains aggressive on the bases and stays relatively healthy, Judge should return first-round fantasy value even with regression across the board.

Ramirez is a machine who consistently pumps out terrific fantasy seasons yet rarely goes first overall in a draft. He finished as the third best player behind Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt this year despite playing two-thirds of the season with a hand injury, which required offseason surgery. Ramirez set a career high in RBIs thanks to better talent in front of him in the lineup, while his homers and runs scored numbers dropped, likely due to the hand injury and the inconsistent talent behind him in the lineup. The 2022 season was the fourth consecutive season in which he swiped 20 or more bases in a full season as well. The only knock on him is that he is a mere human at the plate when he hits righty, but only because he is so terrific hitting from the other side, where he spends 80 percent of his time in the box. He still is unlikely to go first overall in a draft, but he is money in the bank when he is in the lineup with infinitesimal risk in his profile.

Turner finished the season as the sixth best fantasy player in standard formats with another strong season as a five-category contributor. The drop in batting average was offset by a surprising surge in RBI thanks to him hitting leadoff less frequently, but, more importantly, he avoided the injured list for just the second time in the past five full seasons. His speed buys him hits others cannot afford, as his 33 infield hits helped prop up his average as he struggled with breaking balls (.247 average) throughout the season. Even as he approaches 30, he retains his elite speed, and back-to-back full big-volume seasons ease the health concerns that followed him in previous years. It is scary to think what Turner could accomplish in steals under the new rules, as he was already one of the best thieves by success rate in the league. He landed in Philadelphia in free agency, which is close to a neutral move when factoring in the ballparks and lineups of the Phillies and Dodgers (where righty power played way up, per Statcast).

The baseball world wondered what Acuna would look like coming off his July 2021 ACL tear. Our answer: He remains one of the most dynamic players in the game. There was no easing back into the running game, as Acuna stole two bases in his return from the injured list April 28 and swiped a total of nine bags in his first 20 games of 2022. The dog days of summer were tough on Acuna, and he finished the year with a .413 SLG, over 100 points below his career mark. However, he still ranked in the top eight percent of the league in all of hard-hit percentage, xwOBA and xSLG, per Statcast. His launch angle was down close to eight points from his prior two seasons. Now that he's further removed from the knee surgery, and perhaps with a few tweaks, Acuna should be able to tap into more power and return to the elite tier of fantasy contributors.

Machado delivered a career-best 152 wRC+ with 37 doubles, 32 home runs, 102 RBI and 100 runs to power the Padres offense in 2022. It's the second straight season the third baseman has cracked 100 RBI, and it's the sixth time in his career he's topped 30 homers. He surprisingly produced his worst strikeout rate at 20.7 percent, but a .337 BABIP helped him to a .298 average despite a .264 xBA. Machado will turn 31 years old in July and should continue to be a major producer near the top of San Diego's lineup in 2023, though his numbers could fall a bit if he's unable to again significantly outperform his expected figures.

It was expected that Guerrero would drop back from his incredible 2021 season due to Toronto playing full-time at Rogers Centre rather than the cozy environments of Dunedin and Buffalo, as well as the changes to Camden Yards for road trips. Factor in the mushball and his homers dropped off to where we realistically should have expected them to be, but it was surprising to see both his runs and RBIs fall back below 100 considering the talent in the lineup around him in Toronto. Whereas he hit .315 with 11 homers with runners in scoring position in 2021, those numbers fell to .267 and five respectively last year in nearly identical sample sizes. RISP production lacks year-over-year stickiness, but it was an issue last year as the league did tend to pitch around him leading to more walks (11 percent) in those situations than others (eight percent.) The eight steals were a nice bonus, considering he is not the fleetest of foot. We can call him a five-category contributor as a first baseman; he cannot quite pull off a younger Paul Goldschmidt, but who can?

Since 2020, only Aaron Judge has more homers than Alonso. If you go back a year, Alonso heads the list. Last season, he posted his best season since 2019, fueled by a career high .271 batting average. Alonso's 18.8 percent strikeout rate dropped for the third straight season. His fly ball exit velocity dropped, but a tick more fly balls and him missing only two games allowed him to reach the 40-homer level for the second time in his career. Other than stolen bases, Alonso checks all boxes. Missing only 18 games in his four-year career shows durability while a wRC+ between 120 and 144 each season indicates reliability. A low strikeout rate offers a solid batting average floor for one of the top sluggers in the league. Alonso also hits in a prominent spot in a productive lineup. For pure power, it doesn't get any better.

With a 157 wRC+, Freeman was at least 50 percent better than average for the fifth time in his career. His homers fell, but a personal best 47 doubles helped mitigate the drop. One home run estimator indicated three of his 22 dingers were undeserved while another pegged him for four more. The underlying metrics show no difference from previous seasons, so perhaps the drop was moving to the NL West, though on paper it shouldn't have made a difference. Freeman swiped 13 bases, his most ever. Freeman only missed three games, bringing the count to just 10 absences since playing only 117 games in 2017. Excluding 2020, Freeman has collected at least 192 runs plus RBI over this span, exceeding 200 for the last three full campaigns. Freeman may not match the homers and steals of other elite hitters, but he makes up for it in the other three roto categories, and with a 12 percent walk rate, he's an OBP and points league monster.

A strong spring from Rodriguez forced Seattle to break camp with him as their centerfielder. He did not disappoint, capturing the AL Rookie of the Year award. Rodriguez's season could have been even better as he improved over the second half, but wrist and back issues limited him to 41 games after the break. Rodriguez's exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel percentage and speed were all at least 90th percentile. His 25.9 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate could use some work, but that should come as the 22-year-old continues to develop. While it's fair to point out Rodriguez swiped 21 bags in his first 82 games but then stole only four bases in his final 52 contests, playing hurt could have slowed him down as he initially jammed his wrist sliding, so he may have just been cautious the rest of the season. Rodriguez merits top-five overall consideration, with a salient argument for him to be the first player off the board.

Goldschmidt's underlying metrics were actually better in 2021, but last season he teamed up with Lady Luck to take home the National League MVP. The only skill-based metric Goldschmidt improved from the prior campaign was a return to a double-digit walk rate. His HR/FB ticked up four points despite a slight drop in fly ball average exit velocity. His .368 BABIP was its highest since 2015, despite him having the third lowest average exit velocity over that span. His .261 xBA and .482 xSLG were both his second lowest since 2015. Despite all this, everything came together, and Goldschmidt posted a 177 wRC+, the best of his career. The take-home message is expect regression, likely to a level lower than his 2021 season. Goldschmidt is still a solid fantasy producer with a high batting-average floor and plus power along with a handful of steals; just don't pay for his magical 2022 season.

Olson handled the impossible task of replacing a face of a franchise as best he could, but the 2022 results were still a fantasy disappointment. Olson was coming off a career year in a bad ballpark with a lesser lineup, so the relocation to Atlanta and its roster was expected to be more of a boon for Olson, yet the performance was closer to 2019 than it was 2021. In hindsight, we should have looked at the risks of changing leagues, replacing Freeman and getting a new contract as a Bermuda Triangle of risks with the slugger, as that is how the season played out. He took advantage of the lineup to continue to drive in runs, and the 34 homers, with the baseball manufacturing issues, were still solid, but he gave back the strikeout gains from 2021, going back to his pre-2020 levels as he worked to adjust to a different league. The 2023 season should allow him to resume the trajectory of 2021 with more familiarity with the National League. That said, how he handles non-fastballs makes or breaks his batting average, and off-speed stuff really ate him up in 2022 (.224 avg., 26 percent Whiff rate) over 2021 (.267 avg., 18 percent whiff rate).

Last year's player outlook said we had never seen anything like Ohtani's 2021 season. He did not quite have a repeat of his monster season at the plate in 2022, but he more than made up for that with his best season yet on the mound. Any other year, his 2022 season would be worthy of a unanimous MVP award, but Ohtani's season toiled both in the obscurity of the secondary team in the Los Angeles market while also in the large shadow of Aaron Judge's historic season. The only frustrating issue with Ohtani is if you're in a league in which you must declare how you will use him each week, because that format mostly renders his pitching talents null and void unless you're staring at several suboptimal matchups in a five-game week for Ohtani. The DH-only label slightly impacts his draft day value, as standard format leagues must then adjust downstream for losing the in-draft flexibility of the UT spot.

Despite a two-week IL stint with a cracked rib, Betts parlayed a career high 47.7 percent fly ball rate into 35 homers, a personal best. The downside was a lower BABIP for the fourth straight season, as Betts' uppercut swing decreased his groundball exit velocity, which torpedoed his groundball BABIP. However, a low 16.3 percent strikeout rate limited damage, allowing Betts to register a 144 wRC+, the third best of his career. Betts' sprint speed fell to 49th percentile, but he still collected double-digit pilfers for the eighth straight campaign. In his salad days, Betts was one of the best, if not the top, fantasy batters, worthy of the top overall pick. Less durability, a lower average and fewer steals have conspired to keep him out of that discussion, but he's still in the first-round chat. Since 2016, no one has scored more runs than Betts. Him hitting at or near the top of a potent lineup should keep that intact.

Despite missing 43 games, Trout smacked an even 40 homers in 2022, tying Pete Alonso for third in baseball. The missed time was the result of a rare back condition called costovertebral dysfunction, but he returned to hit 16 of those aforementioned 40 homers in his final 40 games (.308/.370/.686 in that span). Running seems to be a thing of the past, as Trout attempted just one steal last season and has a total of four stolen bases over the past three seasons, but there's no doubt the hitting skills are still elite. Eliminate running from the equation and the only variable is health; we should realistically bake in roughly a month of missed time, but Trout can do more in 130 games than most can contribute over a 150-game season. He's headed to the Hall of Fame one day, and Trout is still a ways from his twilight years.

Rookies are supposed to struggle, but someone forgot to tell Witt Jr. He crushed the ball throughout the Cactus League and defied the odds to make the Opening Day roster for the Royals. While he did struggle to accept walks, leading to issues in OBP leagues, he also became just the sixth player age 22 or younger to homer at least 20 times and steal at least 30 bases, while also scoring 80 runs and driving in 80, joining the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr, Cesar Cedeno, Willie Davis and Mike Trout who did that at ages 21 and 22. Many of his age peers were still in A and AA ball while Witt Jr had an above league average OPS despite the low walk total. He has gone from wildcard last winter to a likely first-round selection in standard 5x5 leagues this winter. The OBP penalty may hang around for another season, but he could be peak Hanley Ramirez in a hurry with his bat and legs.

There were some surprising lows for Cole in 2022, including a five-homer blowup outing in Minnesota in June. He finished with his highest ERA (3.50) since his final season in Pittsburgh, continuing a trend of steady increase in recent years. The fact of the matter is he still led MLB in strikeouts with 257. He continues to bring the heat at 97 to 98 mph and leaned on that pitch more than half the time last season while dialing back his curveball and changeup usage. The four-seamer does a lot of great things for him, but Cole has also given up 29 homers on that pitch over the past two seasons, so it can be touched up when he isn't locating. A two-time Cy Young runner-up, Cole wasn't a finalist in 2022, but the Yankees' ace could very well be back in that conversation after this season.

Burnes followed up his NL Cy Young season in impressive fashion. While he didn't bring home the hardware in the National League again, the right-hander was right up there among the best pitchers in the game no matter how you slice it. At 27 years old, Burnes fanned 243 batters -- second in baseball behind only Gerrit Cole -- and surpassed 200 innings for the first time, adding 35 frames to his 2021 total. There is little to nitpick in the underlying numbers, though Burnes hit some bumps in the road in the second half, with his ERA finishing at 3.97 after the All-Star break. A corresponding dip in his strikeout rate after the break (to 27.9 percent) perhaps gives reason for pause heading into 2023, but the overall body of work was stellar. Burnes should still be treated as one of MLB's elite aces, even if he won't get to pick on the NL Central quite as much with the balanced schedule.

Bieber recovered nicely from the injury-shortened 2021 season to make all of his starts and return to the 200 innings level combining the volume of 2019 and top shelf stats from his Cy Young campaign. If you removed his name from his StatCast profile page, you may not be as interested in the player as he does give up hard contact, does not throw hard and his breaking stuff isn't particularly spinny, yet he has held the league to a sub .230 batting aveage in each of the past four seasons and his strikeout rate has been at least 25% in each of those four seasons. The sum is better than the individual parts here and he is one of just eight starting pitchers with a K-BB% greater than 20% from 2019-2022. He lacks the special fastball of the rest of that octet, but you simply cannot argue with the results and just how great he is pitching with his non-fastball offerings.

Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October.

Fresh off winning the AL Cy Young with Toronto in 2021, Ray joined Seattle on a five-year, $115 million deal helped his new team break a 20-year playoff drought. However, the left-hander saw his effectiveness drop across the board and finished 2022 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 212:67 K:BB over 189 innings. He surrendered four runs in three frames during the wild-card round, and he then took a loss out of the bullpen in the ALDS without recording an out. It was an unceremonious end to the campaign as he surrendered 21 earned runs in his final 31 frames between the regular season and playoffs. Still, Ray had a solid 8.0 percent walk rate, which illustrates that his improved control from 2021 wasn't a one-year fluke. Now 31 years old, he likely won't be in contention for another Cy Young Award, but he should remain a strong mid-rotation piece for the Mariners if he can continue to keep the walks down.

Darvish struggled with back and hip injuries during the second half of 2021 but rebounded last season with a 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 197:37 K:BB across 194.2 innings. The sub-1.00 WHIP represents the lowest mark of his MLB career, and it's the most innings he pitched since he exceeded 200 back in 2013. The right-hander remained steady with his fastball velocity and averaged 95 mph, which is an encouraging sign with his 37th birthday coming up in August. There's always risk when banking on the continued success of pitchers this late in their career, but Darvish looked as strong as ever last year and should again be a key cog in San Diego's starting rotation in 2023.

After signing a five-year, $110 million contract with the Blue Jays last winter, Gausman had to pay his toll to the BABIP Gods. He did so in the form of a .363 BABIP, which inflated his numbers well beyond where they probably "should" have been. In fact, Gausman had the second-best FIP among all qualified starters at 2.38, trailing only Carlos Rodon. The split-finger pitch is what helped Gausman take his career to the next level, and it's not usual for splitter-slider pitchers to see a good deal of BABIP variance though Gausman is not a particularly heavy groundball pitcher. Gausman shaved his walk rate to a career-low 3.9% and the surface stats seem destined to get in line with the skills in short order. He will look for better results at Rogers Centre (4.57 ERA last season).

Cease followed up 2021's breakthrough campaign with an even better season, finishing a distant second to Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young voting. Cease started 32 games for the second straight season, finishing with a career-high 184 innings. It wasn't by much, but Cease's K% ticked down while his BB% inched up. A .260 BABIP and 82.3% LOB mark resulted in a 2.20 ERA, over a run below the associated 3.50 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA. Cease is being drafted ahead of starters with similar or better skills, but with a longer track record. If he can lower his 10% walk rate, Cease could be one of the best pitchers in the league. There is a pathway as Cease uses his fastball 47% of the time but throws it for a strike at a low 62% rate. Cease is a prime example of how pitchers can be both lucky and good. Dreaming of a lower walk rate is tempting, but the regression monster is looming with nightmare intentions.

Strider took the baseball world by storm in the second half of 2022, going 7-2 with a 2.20 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 88:15 K:BB over his final 57.1 innings spanning 10 starts. A left oblique strain knocked him out for the final couple weeks of the regular season, but Strider returned to make a short start in the NLDS. Drafted in the fourth round by Atlanta in 2020, Strider generated a little buzz as a prospect though he didn't make the rotation initially out of spring training. He made his first career MLB start on Memorial Day and it didn't take long for him to solidify his spot among the starting five. The right-hander lights up the radar gun at 98 mph on average and his slider is a devastating swing-and-miss pitch. Strider finished as the NL Rookie of the Year runner up and earned himself a long-term deal in the process. He's already a strikeout machine at 24 years young, and if the changeup comes along, watch out.

A pair of oblique issues limited Scherzer to only 23 starts in his inaugural season with the Mets. The veteran right-hander spent almost seven weeks on the IL in the first half, then lost two more weeks in September. His strikeout rate dipped a tad to a still dominant 30.6 percent while his 4.2 percent walk rate was its lowest since 2015. Scherzer took advantage of pitching in cavernous Citi Field to drop his homers to .81 HR/9, the lowest since 2014. Scherzer's four-seam velocity continued a slightly downward trend, but it's not enough to be concerned about. Scherzer enjoyed another outstanding season, where his 2.46 ERA marked the eighth time in the last 10 years his ERA was sub-3.00. Even so, Scherzer will be remembered most for struggling in his last two starts, one to end the regular season and the other in the Wild Card round. This may drop his price to the point the durability risk is worth the reliability reward.

Valdez was one of just eight hurlers to log at least 200 innings as his 201.1 frames was the fifth most in MLB. He fell six strikeouts short of 200, but as an extreme groundball pitcher, Valdez is more concerned about minimizing barrels which he did, landing in the 75th percentile. Valdez threw his sinker half the time, followed by a 90th percentile spin rate curve. He introduced a cutter (which some classified as a slider), throwing it 10% of the time with a solid 18% swinging strike rate. Further refinement of Valdez's repertoire could improve his 23.5% strikeout rate, but he's likely more focused on improving on last season's 8.1% walk rate. Valdez doesn't fan ample batters to be a fantasy ace, but his volume of innings keeps the raw total sufficient for the next tier. Valdez is a bit of a WHIP risk as grounders often inflate BABIP, but they also limit homers, hence keeping ERA in check.

McClanahan had one of those Jeckyll and Hyde type seasons which felt like a tribute to the 1990 season of Jack Armstrong. Like Armstrong, McClanahan had an amazing first half of the season with a 1.71 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and held opposing hitters to a .176 average with 9 wins before the break. He then had a small IL stint, came back with a promising outing, but then struggled in other outings around a second IL stint and won just 4 more games with a 4.20 second half ERA after the break. All in all, he eclipsed projected workload totals and the entire body of work was still very impressive even if it was frontloaded. The evolution of his change was the differentiator for him as it went from a show-me offering to righties to his second most utilized offering with an elite whiff rate giving him two pitches - one for each side of the plate - with elite whiff rates. Durability is the only remaining question mark here for Sugar Shane who looked like he was following the path 2018 Blake Snell blazed for him on the way to the Cy Young that season. That path is still well lit for the lefty.

Woodruff put up a second consecutive season of ace level performance, but left us wanting more as fantasy managers. Woodruff had the 8th-best K-BB%, 4th best strikeout rate and 20th best WHIP amongst starting pitchers with at least 150 innings of work in 2022. Yet, he finished outside the top 20 in both ERA and wins and missed time in the summer after being diagnosed with Raynaud's syndrome, a circulatory condition which causes numbness in the extremities due to reduced blood flow. That particular issue caused him to have trouble with his grip on his breaking pitches which led to a near 50-point jump in the league-wide batting average against his spinners. It is also worth noting that Woodruff has just once pitched more than 160 innings in a season or made 30 starts over the past three full seasons. The metrics and StatCast data scream ace, but the outcomes leave us wanting a bit more.

Alcantara reached the pinnacle in 2022, winning the National League Cy Young Award while literally lapping the field with six complete games. He continued to pump the four-seam and sinker in at 97-98 mph, though it was the changeup that he threw more than any other pitch last season (34.4 Whiff%). Technically his strikeout rate was only a little above average, but when you subtract walks (K-BB%), he ranked top 20 among qualifiers. Alcantara led baseball by a sizable margin with his 228.2 innings during the regular season and he's the only pitcher in the game to clear the 200-inning threshold each of the past two seasons. A certain portion of the fantasy community will fade Alcantara on principle alone coming off a career year, and it's not crazy to be reluctant about paying the new sticker price in drafts, but Alcantara has to be considered among the safest pitchers on the board from a workload standpoint.

A groin injury cost Snell the first quarter of the season, but when he was able to take the hill, Snell picked up where he left off in 2021, throwing fewer changeups while relying more on his four-seam fastball and curveball. Snell made 24 starts, registering the second highest strikeout rate and K-BB% of his career. Snell's 8.4% HR/FB mark was a bit lucky and needed since he yielded a career-high 43% fly balls. However, a .307 BABIP was high, especially considering so many fly balls staying in the yard. Durability and control remain issues as Snell has only eclipsed 180 inning once in his career. He's ticketed for a spot in the middle of the Padres rotation. When healthy, Snell piles up punch outs while providing a solid ERA. Walks buoy a high WHIP, so plan accordingly.

Perez hurt his thumb in May, sending him to the IL for 10 days. After aggravating it a few weeks later, Perez had surgery on the UCL in his left thumb, costing him a little more than a month. He also lost a few games after taking a pitch off his wrist. The various hand injuries cost Perez some power as his fly ball exit velocity dropped a couple of ticks. His BABIP also suffered, but Perez was still one of the most productive catchers, fantasy and otherwise. Embarking on his age-33 season, Perez's status as the first catcher off the board last one year, but he's still in the chat for those looking for a top backstop. He'll continue to play more than most at the position with significant time at designated hitter, but Perez's days of leading catchers in plate appearances is likely history. His power is apt to subsist for a few years, but he's likely to revert to being a batting average liability.

Is a 20-20 season from your catcher something you'd be interested in? Those that signed up last year had to be ecstatic about their return as Realmuto slashed .276/.342/.478 with 22 homers, 21 steals and nearly 160 runs-plus-RBI, putting him in a different stratosphere from every other fantasy catcher. Realmuto was caught stealing just once and had his best season to date by wRC+. It's impossible to project another 20-steal season from a catcher entering his age-32 season, but don't write off the possibility completely with Realmuto. He's a great athlete and the three-time All-Star will have to shoulder more of the load for the Phillies offensively over the first few months while Bryce Harper recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Perhaps no player in baseball is in a more favorable position than Smith. He was the primary cleanup hitter for a 111-win Dodgers team last season, batting behind the likes of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. Smith held up his end of the bargain with 24 homers and 87 RBI across 578 total plate appearances. He shaved nearly four points off his strikeout rate from his first full season in the majors and the bat is arguably worthy of more DH starts in the years to come (24 starts as the designated hitter in 2022). The rigors of catching make it tough for any backstop to stay healthy over the entire season, year-in and year-out, but Smith has now cleared 500 plate appearances in back-to-back campaigns. The batted-ball metrics, while not elite, largely support his outstanding results.

Melendez gets a passing grade, offensively. As a 23-year-old rookie, he popped 18 home runs and drew 66 walks in 534 plate appearances, putting him roughly league average by wRC+. It's defensively where the questions come up. Melendez struggled behind the plate both defensively (-18 DRS) and with pitch framing. Salvador Perez is still locked in as the near-everyday catcher when healthy, so Melendez will likely see most of his time in the outfield to begin 2023. He's not a finished product with the bat, but the 2021 minor-league home run leader clears the bar in two-catcher leagues. The defensive questions leave open some playing-time downside, but the rebuilding Royals would be wise to live with his limitations and hand Melendez 500-plus PA again to evaluate his progress against big-league pitching.

On the strength of 27 homers and 16 steals, Varsho finished as the No. 2 catcher in 5x5 roto leagues last season. His .235 average dragged him behind the Phillies' JT Realmuto, but regardless it was an incredibly impressive campaign, and most importantly for our purposes, he maintains catcher eligibility entering 2023 (31 appearances, 18 starts behind the plate). There is some frigid blue on his Statcast page, so perhaps he will continue to struggle to hit for average, but the power-speed combination from the catcher position makes Varsho a valuable asset in the rotisserie game. Being traded to the Blue Jays should only benefit Varsho's production, as the better lineup around him should only increase his chances for runs and RBI. Rogers Centre is also slightly more friendly to hitters compared to Chase Field in Arizona. As good of a young player as he is, those playing in one-catcher leagues and/or points leagues should beware not to overrate Varsho based on where he ranks on two-catcher, roto cheat sheets.

Contreras posted a career-high 132 wRC+ which could have been even better, except he had to deal with a multitude of injuries, most notably recurring hamstring and ankle woes. Even so, Contreras managed 487 plate appearances, the third most of his career. Serving as the designated hitter 39 times helped keep Contreras' bat in the lineup when he was hurt. Fueling the career year was a personal-best 21.1% strikeout rate and a career-high 48.6% hard-hit rate. Contreras 21.2% HR/FB was typically high, but a 33% flyball rate limits Contreras' power. Many expected Contreras to be dealt at the trade deadline, but he finished the season with the Cubs before declining their qualifying offer. Contreras signed a five-year, $87.5 million deal with the rival Cardinals and will presumably hit in a favorable spot in a far superior lineup -- the park move was neutral. The top end of the catcher pool is improving, but Contreras still warrants upper tier status.

Known primarily as "Willson's little brother" prior to last season, the younger Contreras is now making a name for himself. The two brothers met in the 2022 All-Star Game, both as starters, becoming the fifth set of siblings to play together in the Midsummer Classic. William was selected via player vote after he hit .260/.345/.533 with 11 homers in the first half. In the end, he reached an even 20 long balls despite making just 376 plate appearances for Atlanta. The batted-ball metrics were impressive, especially for a 24-year-old, though we should expect his BABIP to find a happy medium between his 2021 and 2022 marks (.265, .344). His perceived fantasy value will see a spike following a December trade to Milwaukee, as he not only gets a ballpark upgrade but should also see as much playing time as he can handle.

Rutschman began the season on the minor league IL with a triceps issue. When healthy, he quickly advanced from Double-A Bowie to Triple-A Norfolk before being called up on May 21. He started slow, posting a 137/.228/.196 line after 13 games, but then settled in to go .271/.380/.481 the rest of the way. Rutschman played excellent defense, finishing second among catchers with 18 defensive runs saved while exhibiting solid framing and an excellent arm. His plate discipline is stellar as demonstrated by a 13.8% walk rate and 18.3% strikeout clip. Rutschman's low 38.4% groundball rate helped him compile extra base hits with a below average fly ball exit velocity. His 35 doubles to 13 home run ratio should tilt more to the long ball as he continues to develop. As is, Rutschman is one of the top backstops in the league, assured of the lion's share of playing time for Baltimore. His ceiling is the top fantasy catcher.

Murphy came into the season known more for his glove work than his bat, yet finished the season as the fifth-best fantasy backstop behind only Realmuto, Varsho, Smith, and Perez. Murphy pulled a Perez-like workload in plate appearances with 612 plate appearances, but Oakland used him at DH 30 times to reduce the wear and tear on his knees. He rewarded them by reducing his strikeout rate and setting career bests in every possible category, even with his first career steal! Murphy could see a decrease in plate appearances following a trade to Atlanta, but it could be a net positive given the lineup upgrade. It has already been reported that Murphy and Travis d'Arnaud will each see time at designated hitter when the other is catching.

Kirk was one of the league's top hitting catchers as his 129 wRC+ was highest among the five backstops with at least 500 plate appearances. His plate skills remained excellent, with a 50% groundball rate supporting an increased BABIP. Kirk's exit velocity on fly balls increased, indicating his patience allowed turning on pitches he can drive, so while his power fell, it wasn't commensurate with the increase in grounders. Lost in Kirk's exploits at the plate were his improvements behind it. Kirk's defense improved significantly, specifically with regards to framing, but he also caught 26% of base stealers as opposed to 19% the prior campaign. Still just 24 years old, Kirk can easily regain some of the loft on batted balls, increasing power. Even with the uptick in defense, Kirk will often serve as designated hitter, so he should again combine quality and quantity into a top-10 fantasy backstop.

All aboard the Big Dumper express! Raleigh earned the moniker from Jarred Kelenic with his breakout sophomore season hitting timely homers with stellar defense as Raleigh seemingly aimed to remind Seattle what they once had in Mike Zunino. Raleigh's batting average was nothing to write home about as it hovered there most of the season with some peaks (.254 in down the stretch) and valleys (.136 into June), but his 121 wRC+ was well above the 89 figure the catching position as a whole produced league-wide. Like Zunino, the story here is raw power and Raleigh has plenty of it with the ability to launch a baseball to all fields with a prevalance to crank and yank them down the right field line. His numbers against righties and lefties are nearly identical and the defense means he is the primary catcher as long as the recovery from offseason hand surgery goes well. He is one of the primary reasons the catching position is no longer considered a black hole as he went from undraftable in 15 team leagues last season to a likely top 8 catcher on draft boards this season.

Some eyebrows were raised when Atlanta gave d'Arnaud a two-year deal after his disappointing 2021 season at the plate, but he rewarded the club with their faith in him with a strong rebound season in 2022 as the club found a way to mix and match his strengths with William Contreras. d'Arnaud used a more aggressive approach at the plate in 2022 looking to hunt early and often for fastballs and he hit .274 while slugging .512 off heaters with 12 of his 18 home runs on the season coming off the 2021 season where he hit .193 and slugged .377 against fastballs. Despite producing like one, d'Arnaud has never been an everyday catcher as he has but twice exceeded 400 plate appearances but yet has five double-digit homer seasons to his name and just scored a career-high 61 runs this past season. Simply put, he makes the most of his opportunities and his 2022 production even exceeded what he did in 2019 when he re-established his market value with a livelier baseball. He should lose more at-bats with the trade that sent out Contreras and brought in Sean Murphy, although d'Arnaud is expected to be the designated hitter sometimes when Murphy starts at catcher.

Stephenson was a bright spot for the Reds when on the field in 2023, but he was limited to just 50 games around a series of injuries. A broken clavicle put him on the shelf for good in late July. The concussion he suffered early on was the third of his playing career by his own admission, creating some talk among Reds fans that Stephenson may eventually need to move off the catcher position. By all accounts Stephenson is intent on catching until he isn't allowed to anymore, and if a move is necessary in time, Stephenson's bat should play well enough at first base. With better health, Stephenson could emerge as a top-10 hitter at the catcher position while playing his home games at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Vazquez was acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline to boost their offensive production at catcher, but he never found his footing in Houston and had a .586 OPS across only 35 games as Martin Maldonado remained the primary backstop. Vazquez also struggled in 2021 with a 76 wRC+, but he still had a strong first half for Boston last season with a .282/.327/.432 slash line, eight homers and 42 RBI in 84 contests. The latter numbers are more in line with his production over the past few years, and he's hit north of .270 in four of the past six seasons. He clubbed 23 homers in 2019 but hasn't reached double digits in any other big-league campaign, so he shouldn't be expected to provide more than a handful of long balls. Vazquez got a three-year, $30 million deal from Minnesota, where he will likely be ahead of Ryan Jeffers, at least early in the season. His defense makes him a much more valuable real-life player than he is in fantasy.

Grandal was not expected to repeat 2021's career year but following it up with his worst season ever was a surprise. To be fair, hamstring, back and knee issues hampered him all season with lower back spasm requiring a month-long IL visit. Grandal's exit velocity, Barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all fell precipitously. He maintained solid plate skills but hitting the ball with far less authority torpedoed his batting average and slugging to career lows. Grandal's defense also suffered, which does not bode well for playing time since his bat is no longer worthy of designated hitter or first base action. Grandal isn't over the hill at 34-years-old. However, since 2014, only three backstops have caught more innings and the squatting could be catching up. Even if he starts, Grandal's playing time is earmarked to drop. He's still in play in two-catcher leagues, but he's now lumped in with the back-end dregs.

It was expected that Guerrero would drop back from his incredible 2021 season due to Toronto playing full-time at Rogers Centre rather than the cozy environments of Dunedin and Buffalo, as well as the changes to Camden Yards for road trips. Factor in the mushball and his homers dropped off to where we realistically should have expected them to be, but it was surprising to see both his runs and RBIs fall back below 100 considering the talent in the lineup around him in Toronto. Whereas he hit .315 with 11 homers with runners in scoring position in 2021, those numbers fell to .267 and five respectively last year in nearly identical sample sizes. RISP production lacks year-over-year stickiness, but it was an issue last year as the league did tend to pitch around him leading to more walks (11 percent) in those situations than others (eight percent.) The eight steals were a nice bonus, considering he is not the fleetest of foot. We can call him a five-category contributor as a first baseman; he cannot quite pull off a younger Paul Goldschmidt, but who can?

Since 2020, only Aaron Judge has more homers than Alonso. If you go back a year, Alonso heads the list. Last season, he posted his best season since 2019, fueled by a career high .271 batting average. Alonso's 18.8 percent strikeout rate dropped for the third straight season. His fly ball exit velocity dropped, but a tick more fly balls and him missing only two games allowed him to reach the 40-homer level for the second time in his career. Other than stolen bases, Alonso checks all boxes. Missing only 18 games in his four-year career shows durability while a wRC+ between 120 and 144 each season indicates reliability. A low strikeout rate offers a solid batting average floor for one of the top sluggers in the league. Alonso also hits in a prominent spot in a productive lineup. For pure power, it doesn't get any better.

With a 157 wRC+, Freeman was at least 50 percent better than average for the fifth time in his career. His homers fell, but a personal best 47 doubles helped mitigate the drop. One home run estimator indicated three of his 22 dingers were undeserved while another pegged him for four more. The underlying metrics show no difference from previous seasons, so perhaps the drop was moving to the NL West, though on paper it shouldn't have made a difference. Freeman swiped 13 bases, his most ever. Freeman only missed three games, bringing the count to just 10 absences since playing only 117 games in 2017. Excluding 2020, Freeman has collected at least 192 runs plus RBI over this span, exceeding 200 for the last three full campaigns. Freeman may not match the homers and steals of other elite hitters, but he makes up for it in the other three roto categories, and with a 12 percent walk rate, he's an OBP and points league monster.

Goldschmidt's underlying metrics were actually better in 2021, but last season he teamed up with Lady Luck to take home the National League MVP. The only skill-based metric Goldschmidt improved from the prior campaign was a return to a double-digit walk rate. His HR/FB ticked up four points despite a slight drop in fly ball average exit velocity. His .368 BABIP was its highest since 2015, despite him having the third lowest average exit velocity over that span. His .261 xBA and .482 xSLG were both his second lowest since 2015. Despite all this, everything came together, and Goldschmidt posted a 177 wRC+, the best of his career. The take-home message is expect regression, likely to a level lower than his 2021 season. Goldschmidt is still a solid fantasy producer with a high batting-average floor and plus power along with a handful of steals; just don't pay for his magical 2022 season.

Olson handled the impossible task of replacing a face of a franchise as best he could, but the 2022 results were still a fantasy disappointment. Olson was coming off a career year in a bad ballpark with a lesser lineup, so the relocation to Atlanta and its roster was expected to be more of a boon for Olson, yet the performance was closer to 2019 than it was 2021. In hindsight, we should have looked at the risks of changing leagues, replacing Freeman and getting a new contract as a Bermuda Triangle of risks with the slugger, as that is how the season played out. He took advantage of the lineup to continue to drive in runs, and the 34 homers, with the baseball manufacturing issues, were still solid, but he gave back the strikeout gains from 2021, going back to his pre-2020 levels as he worked to adjust to a different league. The 2023 season should allow him to resume the trajectory of 2021 with more familiarity with the National League. That said, how he handles non-fastballs makes or breaks his batting average, and off-speed stuff really ate him up in 2022 (.224 avg., 26 percent Whiff rate) over 2021 (.267 avg., 18 percent whiff rate).

At the end of last season, Abreu's fantasy managers were left wondering one thing: Where did the power go? Abreu managed a mere four home runs after the All-Star break, slugging .414 in 67 games after the intermission. He hit only one homer in his final 55 games. It wasn't just the power -- Abreu's strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction in the second half. So, was he simply pressing or is this the beginning of the cliff for Abreu? He will be 36 at the start of the 2023 season. He still had outstanding season-long marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, per Statcast, despite the late power outage. Father Time is undefeated, but Abreu seems like a strong bounce-back candidate given his glimmering track record of both performance and durability. He finds himself in a perfect situation to put up significant runs and RBI as Houston's new starting first baseman after inking a three-year deal this offseason.

Walker parlayed more patience and an increase in fly balls into a 122 wRC+, the highest mark of his career. He swung at fewer pitches in and out of the zone, fueling a career low 19.6% strikeout rate. Walker's fly ball exit velocity increased, supporting a career-high .235 ISO. Unfortunately, his BABIP was adversely affected, falling over 50 points to .248. However, a 10.3% walk rate helped mitigate the damage. There was some luck involved in Walker's uptick, but the new approach should help him maintain more power than previously displayed. Walker's 17 defensive runs saved were by far the most among qualified first basemen which should help him stay on the field in the event he incurs some regression. After dealing with oblique issues last season, Walker missed only two games. He missed only 13 in 2019-2020, so durability is a plus. Walker is in play for those waiting on a first baseman/corner infielder.

Meneses was the International Player of the Year in 2018, batting .311/.360/.510 with Triple-A Lehigh. Meneses played in Japan for two years then returned stateside in 2021, landing in the Red Sox system. He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals for the 2022 campaign. After cleaning house at the trade deadline, Washington promoted the 30-year-old for his MLB debut. He slashed .286/.341/.489 for Triple-A Rochester. Meneses crushed 13 homers in two months, though two xHR metrics pegged him for 10. While Meneses power was in line with his minor league numbers, his .371 BABIP with the Nationals was artificially high, spurred by an unsustainable number of outfield line drives sporting a high BABIP. Even with batting average regression, Meneses warrants a look at first base in a transition year for the Nationals. His power is mixed-league worthy, but brace for the inevitable dip in batting average.

Likely by design to take advantage of the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium, Rizzo hit flyballs at a career high 49% clip. It worked as he pulled 16 of his 32 long balls into the right field seats in the Bronx, though Rizzo's 18.4% strikeout rate was its highest since 2014. More flyballs helped sink Rizzo's BABIP to .216, the lowest mark of his career, though the resulting power fueled a 132 wRC+, his best since 2019. Rizzo's contact and hard-hit rates remain solid, but he's approaching the age where skills start to decline. He re-upped with the Yankees on a two-year deal with a buyout/club option for a third year, so the short porch will once again be a bullseye. The elephant in the room is Rizzo has been one of the most shifted players and with the new rules, he could benefit. A buying opportunity exists if the room is ignoring this, but it's unwise to anticipate a huge difference.

It is somewhat amusing that while Cron hit 57 homers over the past two seasons in Denver, he never did reach the 30 plateau as he did in Tropicana Field of all places in 2018. Cron hit 22 of his 29 homers in Coors this past season with a hefty .302/.354/.601 slash line, but other stadiums were his kryptonite as he hit .214/.279/.340 away from Denver with seven homers. Fantasy managers should hope the Rockies keep Cron around as long as possible given how poorly he has hit away from Coors the past two seasons. The power will play anywhere, but this profile is much less attractive if it comes with batting average risks.

Mountcastle's numbers don't express it, but he sported better skills than the previous season, but was shortchanged between six and nine homers, depending on which xHR mark is trusted. Looking at his spray chart, the discrepancy is more than the new Camden Yards dimensions. Mountcastle increased his fly ball exit velocity 1-mph, adding around four feet to his average fly ball distance. Yet, his HR/FB slipped from 20.4% to a snake bit 13.3%. Mountcastle chased less while being more aggressive in the zone, resulting in shaving a couple of points of his strikeout rate. The narrative will be moving the left field fences back in Camden Yards cost him power, but he was also unlucky in the home run department. This presents a buying opportunity as many will over adjust Mountcastle's new power baseline. He's still in the upswing of his career, hitting in the meat of an improving lineup.

When Tellez was deal to Milwaukee, fantasy managers had hoped that he would be freed from the shackles of a platoon situation and we could finally see what the slugger could do as a full-time player. For better and for worse, that indeed happened in 2022. Tellez had 599 plate appearances and his StatCast profile has a high volume of dark red ink on it, but the .219/.306/.461 triple-slash line shows the risks of exposing the lefty slugger to too many lefty pitchers. That approach worked in 2019 when the fortunes went his way and he hit .270/.317/.513 against lefties in the AL, but went .209/.313/.330 against lefties in the NL this past season as he swung and missed at nearly 50% of the non-fastballs he saw from southpaws. The new shift rules could potentially add a few points of average to his line, but he otherwise remains a two-category contributor.

As fantasy managers, we want all the data we can get to analyze how a player will perform. One thing we cannot measure is what happens when you disrupt a player's situation with a midseason trade and we saw that come to pass with Bell last season. The first baseman was having a terrific fantasy season for managers who bought back in at a great price this past winter until the deadline deal to the Padres where he slipped back into 2020 levels of production without the excuse of a pandemic at its peak to blame. His performance simply cratered out west dropping from a 143 wRC+ with the Nationals to a 79 wRC+ with the Padres. The pre-trade performance was some of the best production we have seen from Bell while the performance with the Padres was a return to the 2020 season which tanked his value he established during the happy fun ball season of 2019. His 2021 numbers are a more realistic expectation of what the 30 year old free agent can do in a full season, but he is on his third team in less than a year after signing with the Guardians to be their designated hitter.

France may not sport the typical corner infield skill set, but it plays and can be a fantasy asset when used in the proper lineup build. His primary skill is an elite contact rate as his average exit velocity is 24th percentile flanked with a 29th percentile hard hit rate. France's fly ball exit velocity is a little higher, allowing him to maintain a slightly above average HR/FB. Put together, France has registered a wRC+ of 133, 130 and 127 over the past three seasons. His job as the Mariners' every day first baseman is secure, and manager Scott Servais likes to hit him in a prominent lineup spot. France's run production should benefit from an improving Seattle lineup. It hurts a bit that France no longer has second base eligibility, but France can provide batting stability with enough power to merit mixed league corner infield consideration.

Lowe had a surprisingly terrific fantasy season in his second full season at the major leagues setting career highs nearly across the board. The .302 batting average was a huge surprise given he is not the quickest of players, but 19 infield hits on mostly weakly hit balls against the shift certainly helped push his batting average up this season. He also finally showed more consistent loft in his swing, and while he still has a 1.5:1 grounder to flyball ratio, that is an improvement over the 2.0 level he was living at in previous seasons. He has always been an excellent hitter when ahead in the count, but 2022 was the first time he wasn't futile when down in the count. Lowe hit .281 in such situations this past season going .179 in such situations previously. If you are banking on him hitting near .300 again, factor in that data point as well as the infield hits with the shifting rules changing. Draft for run production and level set your batting average projections a tercile lower.

For the second straight season, Semien led MLB with 724 plate appearances. His first nine games with the Rangers were disastrous with a .369 OPS. However, Semien recovered to post a .756 OPS the rest of the way. His 107 wRC+ was the third highest of his career, but that does not capture his 25 steals, by far his season high. Semien's Statcast page doesn't portend power, but he's quietly a fly-ball hitter with an uncanny ability to cluster them down the line where most fences are within reach. A career .263 BABIP reflects his fly-ball nature, but a strikeout rate around 20 percent props up Semien's average enough so his power/speed combo plays in any format. It would be more comforting if Semien's success was greater supported by a higher exit velocity or hard-hit rate, but Semien's track record of getting the job done lands him among the top fantasy second basemen, buoyed by excellent durability.

The final three-and-a-half months of Albies' 2022 season were wiped out by injury, in particular a broken left foot and then a broken pinkie finger suffered in his second game back from the injured list. Most of the batted-ball metrics were well down for Albies, but it's impossible to glean too much from the sample (269 plate appearances). His strikeout rate remained right around his career average at 17.5 percent. Perhaps most disturbingly for rotisserie players is the fact that his running waned (3-for-8 on the base paths) as his Statcast sprint speed only ranked in the 54th percentile. That said, we should expect renewed intent for Albies to start the 2023 season, assuming he doesn't run into more health trouble. Despite losing Freddie Freeman last winter, Atlanta still ranked third in baseball in scoring, so Albies could reach 100 runs scored for the fourth time already.

What could have been. Chisholm Jr was on pace for a monster fantasy season in Miami after a winter where many debated his fantasy merits but the dream lasted just 60 games as a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus ended his season in late June. Preseason projections had him in the 20-20 aea with a low batting average, but Chisholm Jr was on pace to toy with a 30-30 season and finished 11 points above the league-wide batting average thanks to his willingness to accept a few more walks and chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. He has had a full-time role for two seasons in Miami, but we have yet to see a full-season of play from him and he has now lost his dual-eligibility as he is exclusively a second baseman. The 30-30 potential is still there for Chisholm Jr if the body is healthy and the next manager allows the team to run as Mattingly did this past season. The health risk should give you pause if you are considering reaching for the upside here.

A graduate from Stanford with a degree in math and computational science, Edman is a smart baseball player and you can see it in certain stats like his stolen-base success rate (career 79-for-92). He picks his spots and maximizes his natural talent. While Edman doesn't draw a ton of walks, he puts the ball in play and can hit for decent average and a bit of pop from both sides of the plate. It's worth noting that of Edman's 32 steals last season, 21 came when he batted out of the leadoff spot. Conversely, he only stole two bags in 31 games batting at the bottom of the order, so the Cardinals' lineups will be worth watching as we push closer to Opening Day. Regardless of where he slots in, Edman will be in the staring nine close to every day thanks to his defensive prowess. He is eligible at both middle-infield positions entering 2023.

"Pesky" may be the best word to describe Cronenworth as a player. He did not have a particularly good season by his standards (.722 OPS), but he lays off pitches out of the zone and punishes mistakes. Despite a Statcast hard-hit rate ranking in the bottom quarter of the league, Cronenworth got to a respectable 17 homers last season. He made the most of his lineup placement batting in front of Manny Machado and eventually Juan Soto. He puts the ball in play at a strong clip (career 16.5 K%), but this is not a flashy talent. What makes Cronenworth appealing is dual-position eligibility (2B, 1B), everyday playing time in a good offense and a relatively high floor thanks to his contact and plate management skills. If everyone else is jumping at the perceived higher-upside players, welcome him to your roster with open arms as he's a strong bet to clear 600 plate appearances again.

Polanco will look to bounce back to his 2021 All-Star form after injuries derailed his season for the second time in three years. Polanco was slightly underperforming but near his typical production in the first half of the season with 14 home runs and a .786 OPS. He hurt his knee Aug. 15 on a slide and only played nine games the rest of the season due to left patellar tendinitis. Before the injury, Polanco had a similar hard hit rate (38.7% to 37.4%), exit velocity (89.0 to 89.4) and Barrel rate (10.2 to 10.1) of his All-Star season and had a career-high walk rate (14.4%). His underperformance may have been due to a career-low .269 BABIP. Polanco has decent power for a middle infielder and good command of the strike zone, so a bounce back appears likely. He'll need to stay healthy after a chronic ankle injury also hindered his 2020 season.

After being named National League Rookie of the Year in 2021, India injured his hamstring a week into the season and landed on the injured list. He returned a couple weeks later only to wind up back on the IL in short order with the same injury. From there he battled a number of aches and pains, mostly the result of his many hit-by-pitches along with some foul balls off his body. India was plunked 14 times in 431 plate appearances last season after leading the NL in HBPs in his rookie year with a whopping 23. That aspect of his game adds to his injury risk, but India put together a red-hot stretch from July to September in which he hit .306/.376/.505 across 52 games and reminded everyone that he's a high-level talent. We know India likes to run and the short porch in left field at Great American Ball Park is conducive to right-handed power.

Vargas is simply one of the best pure hitters who is still technically a prospect. He hit .304/.404/.511 with a 14.6 K%, 31.7 Hard% and 17 home runs in 113 games as a 22-year-old at Triple-A and predictably played sparingly during a cup of coffee in the majors. His team context - the Dodgers seemingly always have a few quality options for his positions (first base, third base, left field) - is by far the biggest knock on Vargas in the short term. Vargas is not thought of as a burner, but he stole 17 bases on 22 attempts and has a 94th percentile sprint speed, so he could at least be a 4.5-category contributor with regular playing time. He is talented enough to take the left field job and run with it early this season, but it's possible that the Dodgers' crowded depth chart leads to Vargas being a post-hype sleeper in 2024.

Torres rebounded from a 2021 power outage with 24 homers, one third of which were opposite field shots at home. He also hit fly balls at a career high 46% clip, with the uppercut approach adding a couple ticks of exit velocity. Torres' 45.3 HardHit% was 5 points higher than normal, fueling a 77th percentile level. Torres was given the keys to second base where he proved to be a much better defender than shortstop. The only negative to Torres' campaign was slightly less running, perhaps due to getting caught five times in 15 tries. Torres' change in approach is encouraging for maintaining power, though he'll be hard-pressed to approach the 38 homers he hit with the fun ball in 2019. While Torres doesn't rank among the top tier at the keystone, with last year's bounce back he merits consideration for the next tier, keeping in mind the quality at second base is a step down from the other infield positions.

Lowe took hold of an everyday role in 2021 and delivered an .863 OPS and 39 homers in 149 games, but a nagging back injury limited him to only 65 games last year. He batted .221 but finished 2022 with a slightly-above-average 104 wRC+, and he also cut his strikeout rate nearly five percentage points to 22.9 percent. It's unclear exactly how much the back injury affected the second baseman's production, and it's worth keeping an eye on whether the issue resurfaces again during 2023. He fared better against left-handed pitching with a .793 OPS, though that success may not indicate much since it covered only 48 plate appearances. A return to his 2021 form shouldn't be expected, but Lowe should be in store for a bounceback season in 2023.

Urias was set to open the season as Milwaukee's primary third baseman after a breakout 2021, but he spent the first month of the season on the IL with a quadriceps injury and struggled to find much consistency once healthy. He entered September with a .702 OPS and was relegated to a part-time role, but he came alive across his final 23 games and posted a .328/.416/.507 slash line. In the end Urias wasn't able to fully replicate his previous season but came close in most of his numbers with an 11 percent walk rate and 21 percent strikeout rate, though by the time he turned on the jets many fantasy owners had likely already moved on. Urias will turn 26 years old in June and should once again be the favorite to start at the hot corner in 2023, though any job security is likely flimsy given he's coming off an up-and-down campaign.

Merrifield was the subject of trade speculation since he broke out for the Royals in 2017, and the team finally dealt him to the Blue Jays last season. It's really a move that came a couple years late, as the veteran utility man had a career-worst .642 OPS for Kansas City prior to the deal. He fared better in Toronto with a .769 OPS in 44 games, so he's heading into 2023 with a slightly more positive outlook. The 34-year-old closed out last year with 11 home runs, 58 RBI, 70 runs and 16 stolen bases, with the steals representing a significant dip from his 2021 production (40 thefts). Joining the Blue Jays' potent lineup should provide a boost to Merrifield's counting stats in 2023, and he'll likely open spring training as the favorite to start at second base. Even if he does continue to rebound from his poor first half of 2021, Merrifield shouldn't be expected to rediscover his All-Star form from 2018 and 2019, when he had a 115 wRC+.

After Gimenez's showing in 2022, it seems safe to say the Guardians indeed found their long-term shortstop in the Francisco Lindor trade. Gimenez was 40% better than league average by wRC+ in 2022, racking up 17 homers and 20 steals on 23 attempts. Factoring in his exceptional defense, Gimenez ranked as a top-15 position player in all of baseball by fWAR. There are reasons to think he was playing over his head offensively last season, including a .353 BABIP, .257 xBA and 14.0% HR/FB. Expect some regression with the rate stats, but Gimenez should still be highly sought after in drafts thanks to his well-rounded skill set and everyday role. With his steals in particular, someone may jump the 24-year-old above ADP on draft day.

Schoop took a step back in his third year with the Tigers and had arguably the worst season of his MLB career. After hitting 22 home runs and tallying 84 RBI in 2021, he fell back to 11 home runs and 38 RBI. Schoop also posted a career-worst .561 OPS, down significantly from the .755 mark he recorded a season earlier. Bad luck was partly to blame, as the veteran infielder saw his BABIP drop from .317 in 2021 to just .234 last year. However, Schoop also displayed reduced power, as his ISO dipped to .120, a new career worst. Schoop has always provided decent power from the middle infield with very minimal speed, so if he's not driving the ball as much anymore, he won't offer much from a fantasy perspective. It seems like Schoop has been around forever, and he will be entering his 11th season in the majors, though he's still only 31, so he might have a little left in the tank. Schoop could have some fantasy value if he can get back to hitting the ball out of the park more regularly, but he could just as easily continue to decline as he gets older.

Massey was promoted for his big-league debut in July and quickly returned to the minors, but he was promoted again a few weeks later and remained with Kansas City for the rest of the campaign. The 2019 fourth-round pick had a .243/.307/.376 slash line with four home runs, 17 RBI and three stolen bases in 52 games and primarily played second base. He had a solid 13 percent barrel rate and .450 xSLG, so he showcased some pop in his first taste of MLB action. Massey's potential for counting stats is limited given Kansas City's lineup, but he should receive the opportunity to establish himself at the keystone in 2023 given the current state of the roster.

Ramirez is a machine who consistently pumps out terrific fantasy seasons yet rarely goes first overall in a draft. He finished as the third best player behind Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt this year despite playing two-thirds of the season with a hand injury, which required offseason surgery. Ramirez set a career high in RBIs thanks to better talent in front of him in the lineup, while his homers and runs scored numbers dropped, likely due to the hand injury and the inconsistent talent behind him in the lineup. The 2022 season was the fourth consecutive season in which he swiped 20 or more bases in a full season as well. The only knock on him is that he is a mere human at the plate when he hits righty, but only because he is so terrific hitting from the other side, where he spends 80 percent of his time in the box. He still is unlikely to go first overall in a draft, but he is money in the bank when he is in the lineup with infinitesimal risk in his profile.

Machado delivered a career-best 152 wRC+ with 37 doubles, 32 home runs, 102 RBI and 100 runs to power the Padres offense in 2022. It's the second straight season the third baseman has cracked 100 RBI, and it's the sixth time in his career he's topped 30 homers. He surprisingly produced his worst strikeout rate at 20.7 percent, but a .337 BABIP helped him to a .298 average despite a .264 xBA. Machado will turn 31 years old in July and should continue to be a major producer near the top of San Diego's lineup in 2023, though his numbers could fall a bit if he's unable to again significantly outperform his expected figures.

Coming out of the break, Devers .324/.379/.602 was pacing for a career-best year. He then spent 10 days on the IL with a sore hamstring. After returning, Devers was unable to recapture form, posting a .248/.325/.383 line the rest of the way. Other than the 1.5-mph drop in fly-ball exit velocity, Devers' underlying skills weren't much different over the second half, but his BABIP dropped from .353 to .289. For the season, he still managed a career-best 140 wRC+, but a drop in homers and a less potent Red Sox lineup resulted in fewer than 90 runs and 90 RBI for Devers. He eclipsed the century mark in each of the prior two full seasons. His defense remained below average, but he showed signs of improvement. With Devers still just 26-year-old, his best season is probably yet to come. He doesn't run, but Devers crushes the rest of the categories. He may not be first-round material, but he's in the discussion.

Riley now has 3.16 years of major league service (trust us, don't look it up) and has quickly established himself as one of the premier power hitters in baseball with elite metrics in barrel percentage, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and awesome walk-up music. The expected stats from 2021 told us the .300 average was an outlier, so the 30-point drop in batting average did not come as much of a surprise. That said, he does profile as someone who should see some type of bump in batting average with the shift rules changing this season. Sure, he doesn't walk that often and his strikeouts are a bit on the high side, but he's a modern day Mike Schmidt at the plate who may eventually need a new defensive position given his limitations at the hot corner. He is a solid four-category performer who continues to improve his draft status and finished this season as the 21st most valuable player in standard formats. There is a strong chance he does not make it to the third round this season, so plan accordingly.

Save for the pandemic season, Arenado has totaled at least 30 homers with 100 RBI every season since 2015. He posted seasons with a higher wOBA in Colorado, but his 151 wRC+ was the best of his career. Arenado's defense was again stellar. The main differences between last season and his first with St. Louis were fewer strikeouts and more walks along with better BABIP fortune. His batted ball and Statcast numbers were virtually identical. Arenado missed a career high 14 games, but most were when he served a short suspension, was on the restricted list and on paternity leave so durability remains high. Arenado had a chance to opt out of his contract, but he declined. Playing in Busch Stadium could hurt his numbers towards the end of the remaining five years he has left on his contract, but there is currently no indication of a decline. What Arenado lacks in speed, he makes up for in reliability.

Suarez's time with the Reds came to an end last March when Cincinnati sent him and Jesse Winker to Seattle for outfielder Jake Fraley and two pitchers. The park downgrade didn't matter for Suarez as he continued to do what he always does; take his walks, strike out and hit homers. His strikeout rate ticked up to a career-high 31.2%, continuing what is now a five-year trend of increase in that number. With that level of swing and miss, Suarez will be prone to slumps. He's the type of player that needs a full season to find his level but in the end he's typically around 30 homers and 80 RBI. If you have the batting-average foundation already in place, Suarez makes a lot of sense in drafts as the third-base position begins to dry up. His 2021 was rocky but keep in mind the Reds were playing him at shortstop and his struggles in the field were clearly affecting him at the plate.

Henderson was shot out of a cannon last season, putting up a .312/.452/.573 slash line and 176 wRC+ with more walks (19.7 BB%) than strikeouts (18.3 K%) as a 20-year-old at Double-A. He subsequently got the bump to Triple-A, and while his production predictably dipped slightly, he still established himself as one of the game's elite prospects and got rewarded with a taste of the majors. Henderson's plus all-fields power is his current top skill for fantasy, and that may always be the case. However, he should also be a good enough hitter to add value in batting average and add significant value in on-base percentage. His 26.4 K% at Triple-A and 25.8 K% in the majors aren't very concerning when considering he won't turn 22 until late June and was well above the league average as a hitter at both stops. The young third baseman stole 23 bases on 27 attempts and has a 91st percentile sprint speed, so he could add double-digit steals over a full season. He primarily hit fifth in the majors and is one of Baltimore's bluechip building blocks, along with Adley Rutschman.

Muncy's fantastic 2021 season ended with the news of his elbow not healing as expected and his draft value was diminished by the looming concerns Muncy may need TJ surgery and miss the 2023 season. He ended up playing nearly full-time and came close to matching his 2021 plate appearances total, but there was a noticeable decline in his production as he struggled at the plate with an extreme flyball (63%) and pull (49%) approach at the plate. The new shift rules can fix some of the concerns, but not if he continues to hit flyballs at that rate. The biggest difference between the two seasons was how Muncy handled the fastball: he hit .307 and slugged .693 off fastballs in 2021 but those numbers dramatically declined to .196 and .408 respectively in 2022 and the league fed him a steady diet of fastballs. He and the club worked out a two-year extension in August with a club option in the second year so if the Dodgers are willing to invest in his talents again, maybe we should feel comfortable giving him another chance. After all, only he, Pete Alonso, and Mike Trout have as many as three seasons of 35+ homers over the past five seasons.

While he will always have his vocal detractors as a result of his purported involvement in the 2019 Astros cheating scandal, Bregman should be able to rest easy at night knowing he's lived up to expectations as the No. 2 overall pick in 2015. He's a two-time All-Star and now a two-time World Series champion, having hit .294/.379/.569 in the most recent postseason to help manager Dusty Baker secure his first ring. Bregman was limited in 2021 due to quad and hamstring issue and underwent wrist surgery in November of 2021, which may have sapped his power early on in the 2022 campaign (.410 SLG at the end of June). He would go on to slug over .500 after the All-Star break. Running is something Bregman has abandoned, but the highly-capable bat and RBI opportunities batting behind Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez make Bregman an appealing option to consider after the elite tier of third basemen are off the board.

2022 was a mixed bag of fantasy success for Chapman. He made the adjustment from Oakland to Toronto, and an eight-percentage point reduction in his strikeout rate helped him raise his batting average 19 points last season. Yet, he still hit 14 points below the league average and simply replicated his home run total from the previous season when many were expecting a Rogers Centre boost to his homers away from O.co Coliseum. On the plus side, he once again avoided the IL as he has done for three of the past four seasons but even hitting .250 in a season appears to be a distant memory for him as he has not done so now in four seasons. He still makes excellent hard contact and could potentially benefit from the new shifting rules as his wOBA against the shift fell 103 points when he changed divisions. It would be foolish to expect a full rebound in that area as a well-positioned second baseman next to the bag still has a fighter's chance of stopping anything up the middle. He would hit higher in a less talented lineup as he did in Oakland, but that is not likely to happen in Toronto in 2023.

While it's not quite fair to say he has no chance outside of Coors Field, McMahon is a .215/.301/.351 career hitter on the road. He has been able to shave his strikeout rate in recent years from around 30% to closer to 25%, and McMahon has now reached 20 home runs in each of his last three full seasons. Even so, on any other team, McMahon may not garner much attention. He has utility in leagues that allow you to stream him for his home series, but McMahon should not be viewed as a player to set and forget as the road numbers will really drag him down. Last March, McMahon signed a long-term deal with the Rockies, so he's not going anywhere. Deploy him carefully and McMahon can provide value thanks to the Coors bump. He's now third-base only in many leagues after making only 10 appearances at second base in 2022.

Previously known as "the guy who blocked Vladimir Guerrero for a while in 2019," Drury turned himself into a trade chip for the Reds with a career first half. In the end, Drury slashed .274/.335/.520 with 20 homers in 92 games with Cincinnati. He was moved to San Diego where the numbers predictably slipped along with his HR/FB. Drury is a journeyman utility player now on the wrong side of 30, but the Angels still brought him aboard for two years and $17 million. Drury has legitimate pop and is eligible at three positions entering 2023 (1B, 2B, 3B), and it's unclear where he'll see most of his time in 2023 given the Halos' crowded infield. He is a tough sell as a starter in mixed fantasy leagues given his track record of mediocrity, though if you need flexibility off the bench, Drury makes some sense.

Turner was on his way to avoiding the IL for the second straight season when he was felled by an abdominal strain just after the break. He played sparingly over the final two weeks after fouling a ball off his left shin. Turner continued to produce at an above-average clip in 2022, posting a 123 wRC+, but his .438 slugging percentage was his lowest since 2013. Turner maintained a high 43.4% fly ball rate, but he posted a low 7.7% HR/FB as his fly ball velocity dropped to its lowest level since 2018. Turner's strikeout and walk rates remained stellar, he's just lost some bat speed in his twilight years. Turner's defense is league average according to defensive runs saved, but his range is decreasing. That shouldn't be much of an immediate concern after he signed with the Red Sox, as he should see most of his time at designated hitter with Rafael Devers locked in at third base. Turner is still a mixed-league asset but be ready to pull the plug if his already waning power is slow to show itself.

Escobar signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Mets in November 2021, and he delivered a down year during his first season in New York. It was a tale of two halves for the veteran infielder, as he posted a .676 OPS prior to the All-Star break and an .825 OPS during the second half. In total he finished 2022 with a .240/.295/.430 slash line, 20 home runs and 69 RBI, with it being the fifth straight full season in which he's hit at least 20 long balls. His 23.8 percent strikeout rate was the worst of his career, though he also had the highest hard-hit rate (37.4 percent) of his career. Escobar hasn't shown a notable decline entering his age-34 season and should be a solid, if unexciting, option at third base for fantasy managers in 2023.

Hayes' power dropped, but his patience improved slightly, and he hit the ball with a little more authority than the previous campaign. A low 28.8% fly ball rate plus a 6.3% HR/FB mark limited Hayes to just six long balls, but if he can loft a few more batted balls while maintaining a 47% hard-hit rate, there's double-digit power in his stick. Hayes' minor league track record indicates he can shave a few points off his 21.8% strikeout rate, boosting production. The key to Hayes' fantasy potential is running as he swiped 20 bags in 25 tries last season, which is in the territory expected to benefit from the new rules. Injuries may have slowed Hayes growth as he dealt with a wrist issue most of 2021, then played through knee, back and shoulder woes last season. The latent power may manifest, but it's best to consider it a bonus and pay for steals with a batting average high enough not to hurt.

Turner finished the season as the sixth best fantasy player in standard formats with another strong season as a five-category contributor. The drop in batting average was offset by a surprising surge in RBI thanks to him hitting leadoff less frequently, but, more importantly, he avoided the injured list for just the second time in the past five full seasons. His speed buys him hits others cannot afford, as his 33 infield hits helped prop up his average as he struggled with breaking balls (.247 average) throughout the season. Even as he approaches 30, he retains his elite speed, and back-to-back full big-volume seasons ease the health concerns that followed him in previous years. It is scary to think what Turner could accomplish in steals under the new rules, as he was already one of the best thieves by success rate in the league. He landed in Philadelphia in free agency, which is close to a neutral move when factoring in the ballparks and lineups of the Phillies and Dodgers (where righty power played way up, per Statcast).

Rookies are supposed to struggle, but someone forgot to tell Witt Jr. He crushed the ball throughout the Cactus League and defied the odds to make the Opening Day roster for the Royals. While he did struggle to accept walks, leading to issues in OBP leagues, he also became just the sixth player age 22 or younger to homer at least 20 times and steal at least 30 bases, while also scoring 80 runs and driving in 80, joining the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr, Cesar Cedeno, Willie Davis and Mike Trout who did that at ages 21 and 22. Many of his age peers were still in A and AA ball while Witt Jr had an above league average OPS despite the low walk total. He has gone from wildcard last winter to a likely first-round selection in standard 5x5 leagues this winter. The OBP penalty may hang around for another season, but he could be peak Hanley Ramirez in a hurry with his bat and legs.

At the All-Star break, Bichette sat with a .257 average, a .720 OPS and seven steals in 13 attempts. Water eventually finds its level. Bichette cut his strikeouts back down -- 24.3 K percentage in the first half, 19.2 percent in the second half -- and took off to the tune of a .337/.378/.543 line after the intermission. He also improved his efficiency on the basepaths in the second half, going 6-for-8 in steal attempts. In retrospect, those who jumped Bichette into the first half of the first round last spring were a little overzealous, but don't let that disappointment keep you from investing in 2023. There are no questions about Bichette's ability with the bat. If anything, the fact that his sprint speed ranked only mid-pack might be of slight concern.

Adames's 2022 outlook reminded fantasy managers how the shortstop was two different players: the struggling Home Willy at Tropicana Field and the awesome Road Willy away from it. Adames certainly enjoyed a full season in his new home as he hit 18 of his 31 homers in Milwaukee while setting a career high in RBIs and steals while finishing as the seventh most valuable shorstop on the season in standard formats. The new home digs helped him with homers, but switching leagues and divisions threw in a level of unfamilarity which led to batting average challenges both at home and on the road despite his third consecutive reduction in strikeout rate as his challenges with non-fastballs continue to linger. Adames is in a contract year, and has proven his merits defensively and has shown the ability to hit for power, but he remains a batting average risk until he shows he can effectively handle non-fastballs.

Cruz is a walking highlight reel. He is a physical specimen at 6-foot-7, 210 pounds and packs some of the loudest tools you're ever likely to see on a baseball field. In late August, Cruz hit a batted ball at 122.4 mph, setting a new record for the Statcast era. His sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile last season. As expected, there were some swing-and-miss issues (34.9 K%), though he shaved the strikeouts down over the season's final month and really took off (.288/.359/.525). The upside is obvious with the former top prospect, but it's important to remember that he's still just 24 years old and will be playing for a Pirates team without much around him in one of the game's worst ballparks for offense.

Swanson has developed into one of the most durable and reliable players in the league, let alone at shortstop. Swanson and former teammate Matt Olson were the only players to appear in all 162 games. In fact, Swanson has missed only two games since 2020. Swanson's skills are stable and mostly solid, though a 26 percent strikeout rate drains his batting average below the elite at the position. However, Swanson has at least 25 homers each of the past two seasons and doubled his stolen base output to 18. He's in the range of players likely to benefit from the new rules, so 20 bags are plausible. Swanson's defense has been inconsistent, with last season's ranking as above average. Swanson is a classic compiler, exhibiting solid but not elite skills, buoyed by volume. If he hits near the top of the order, Swanson has top-five shortstop potential. Beware, after three straight solid seasons from Swanson, his price is on the rise. Playing half his games at Wrigley Field shouldn't significantly affect his production after he signed with the Cubs, as the venue is mostly neutral in park factors.

Lindor's first year with the Mets in 2021 was the worst of his career, but he rebounded last season with a 127 wRC+ in 161 games. The 29-year-old totaled 26 home runs, 107 RBI, 98 runs and 16 stolen bases, and it's the first time in his career he's driven in more than 100 runs. The shortstop's resurgence played a major role in pushing New York to 101 wins and back to the playoffs, as he looked more like the player he was for Cleveland from 2017-19 than the player the Mets got in Year 1. However, Lindor also had a career-worst 18.8 percent strikeout rate and career-high .301 BABIP, which could temper expectations on him building on the 2022 production.

Anderson's 2022 season was a challenge on many levels for him, from managerial issues to the hand injury which eventually ended his season on Aug. 9. Through it all, Anderson maintained the ability to hit for a very high average as he is the only player in the league to hit over .300 in each of the previous four seasons. That skill helps him maintain a solid OBP despite an anemic walk rate that had him on pace to challenge his career high in steals from 2018. The batting-average talents are helped both by his ability to use all fields and the fact that he is one of the toughest batters in the league to strike out -- he lowered his strikeout rate nearly six full percentage points from 2021. The one downside to remember is that he has missed 30-plus games in three of the past four full seasons, having just once exceeded 150 games played. A new manager and a repaired hand should have him in a better place for 2023.

The pressures that come with a 10-year, $325 million contract didn't seem to faze Seager, who established a new career high with 33 homers in his first season with the Rangers. He also drove in 80-plus for the second time in his career, and while his batting average was slightly disappointing, that was largely the result of a .242 BABIP that should be expected to return closer to his career norm (.317). The Statcast numbers suggest it was mostly bad luck as he crushed the baseball to the tune of a 97th percentile xSLG. Seager does not run but he puts bat to ball with great consistency -- his strikeout rate has ranged from 15.5% to 16.1% over the past three seasons -- and he's still just entering his age-29 season. A three-time All-Star, Seager is the type of player that could be an MVP candidate with sustained health and a little better luck on the field.

Bogaerts has been consistently productive without an impressive Statcast page. Last season, he again parlayed outstanding plate coverage into a solid campaign, posting a 134 wRC+, the second highest of his career. Bogaerts' homers usually emanate from turning on mistakes, but he was unable to do it as often in 2022, perhaps due to lingering shoulder and other assorted woes. The drop in power was mitigated by a .362 BABIP, above his career .336 mark. However, it was driven by a .356 BABIP on grounders, over 50 points above his career norm. Defense has always been an issue, but last season Bogaerts vowed to improve, and he did, finishing third for the AL Gold Glove at shortstop. Bogaerts opted out of his contract and landed a massive 11-year deal with San Diego. His skills will play anywhere, but there is no denying this is a downgrade in park factors for the right-handed hitter. Nagging injuries have been an issue, but Bogaerts is still one of the best fantasy shortstops.

Volpe's season line (.246/.341/.450) was fine, but he got off to a pretty rough start at Double-A, whether due to an adjustment to the pitching, the cooler spring weather in the Eastern League, or just random variance. From June 10 on, he hit .268/.360/.492 with 14 home runs, 29 steals (on 32 attempts), a 17.7 K% and an 11.4 BB% -- numbers much more in line with preseason expectations. Volpe has always been a hit-over-power prospect whose minor-league steals totals have exceeded his speed grades from scouts (generally considered a 55-grade runner). Considering Isiah Kiner-Falefa (26 SB attempts) and Gleyber Torres (15 SB attempts) had the green light, Volpe should get the same, but it would still be unwise to expect him to approach the 41.5 steals he averaged over the past two years in the minors. Slow starts aside, Volpe's AVG declined steadily as he climbed the ranks (.302 at Single-A, .286 at High-A, .251 at Double-A, .236 at Triple-A). He only got 99 plate appearances at Triple-A to close the year, posting a career-worst 30.3 K%. That said, he was 21 and won't turn 22 until late-April. The Yankees are keeping the middle infield clear for some combination of Torres, Oswald Peraza and Volpe, and Volpe is the least ready of that trio, so it shouldn't be assumed that he will be given the job early in 2023.

The Rays bet big on Franco last winter in the form of an 11-year, $182 million contract extension. This was after just 70 games at the big-league level for Franco, so it's clear Tampa Bay, a notoriously "frugal" franchise, is head over heels as are most evaluators. His 2022 season did not go as planned as Franco battled a quadriceps injury before undergoing surgery in July to repair a fractured hamate bone. While his numbers in 83 games leave something to be desired, Franco continued to display excellent contact skills, with Statcast putting him in the top 4% of the league in terms of xBA. He was also a perfect 8-for-8 on the basepaths. The switch hitter returned to play in 25 regular-season games down the stretch, slashing .322/.381/.471. In time, Franco could prove to be a better-in-real-life-than-fantasy sort of player, but beware of any definitive labels put on this all-world talent as they could look silly a year or two from now.

Correa returns to Minnesota after a wild offseason that saw him agree to $300+ million, 10+ year contracts with the Giants and then Mets only to be negated by concerns over the long-term health of his right ankle during a physical. Correa suffered the injury in the minors in 2014 and had a plate inserted in his ankle. Fantasy managers have given up any hope for steals out of Correa (where the risk to his leg may be a factor), but he is a solid four-category player as long as he remains on the field. A bruised finger kept him on the IL for a spell last season, but he closed the campaign on a high note, finishing with an .853 OPS that was nearly identical to his mark from his last season in Houston. And while the concerns over the long-term risk of his leg prevented him from getting a larger contract, it doesn't appear to be an issue in the short term. Correa's run and RBI totals took a big step back in both categories in 2022 despite enjoying relatively good health, but he could improve if the rest of Minnesota's lineup has better health after an injury-plagued season.

Pena had the task of replacing the void left by Carlos Correa's departure in free agency over the winter. Pena had no major league experience coming into the season and had just 160 plate appearances at the minor league level the previous season, but finished the season slightly better than league average with a 102 wRC+. Few would have projected him with double-digit steals let alone double-digit homers, yet the rookie did both hitting more homers in 2022 than he had in his professional baseball career from 2018-2021 and stole more bases than he did in 2019 and 2021 combined. He didn't accept many walks in Triple-A in 2021 and accepted even fewer as a rookie while striking out often, but the Houston lineup was deep enough to absorb these risks and keep his excellent defense in the lineup as often as it was. The profile is rather reminscent of a younger Javier Baez with perhaps a little more contact, but the same types of risks apply with the conditions ripe for a sophomore slump.

Everyone remembers the infamous ceremonial first pitch by 50-Cent years ago, yes? Baez absolutely would have swung at that pitch in 2022. The first year Tiger led the league with a 49% out of zone swing rate last season chasing anything and everything thrown toward home plate and only Luke Voit had a worse swinging strike rate baseball last season. Perhaps the pressures of a big free agent in a new home fell upon him as this was easily the worst season of his career as he struggled to adjust to the spaciousness of Comerica Park after so many years in the Friendly Comfines in Chicago as he hit .220 with 7 homers at home compared to .253 with 10 homers on the road this past season. Despite his lack of selectiveness, he did surprisingly well with runners in scoring position hitting .296 with a .496 slugging percentage which allowed him to drive in 47 of his 67 RBIs on the season.However, a .212 average with a .260 OBP with the bases empty, which they often were in Detroit, impacted his abilities to score runs and steal bases. The second year rebound many free agents have seen should come into play here with Baez as he reduces his impulse to swing his way out of his struggles. He has never been the most disciplined hitter, but 2022 was as bad as we have ever seen from him and not the new reality.

Judge and the Yankees were unable to agree on a contract extension prior to the 2022 campaign, and the slugger delivered a recording-breaking season in his final year before free agency. The outfielder, who will turn 31 years old in April, set an American League record with 62 home runs and also totaled 111 walks, 131 RBI and 133 runs scored with a .311/.425/.686 slash line. The thing that really vaulted him into rarefied fantasy air was a surprise 16 steals on 19 attempts after previously having a career-high nine steals back in 2017. He endured his share of injury issues in the past but played in a career-high 157 games and has missed only 19 contests across the past two seasons. Judge is unlikely to deliver a repeat performance in 2023, though he should remain one of the most productive hitters in MLB after landing a huge nine-year deal to stay in pinstripes. If he remains aggressive on the bases and stays relatively healthy, Judge should return first-round fantasy value even with regression across the board.

The baseball world wondered what Acuna would look like coming off his July 2021 ACL tear. Our answer: He remains one of the most dynamic players in the game. There was no easing back into the running game, as Acuna stole two bases in his return from the injured list April 28 and swiped a total of nine bags in his first 20 games of 2022. The dog days of summer were tough on Acuna, and he finished the year with a .413 SLG, over 100 points below his career mark. However, he still ranked in the top eight percent of the league in all of hard-hit percentage, xwOBA and xSLG, per Statcast. His launch angle was down close to eight points from his prior two seasons. Now that he's further removed from the knee surgery, and perhaps with a few tweaks, Acuna should be able to tap into more power and return to the elite tier of fantasy contributors.

A strong spring from Rodriguez forced Seattle to break camp with him as their centerfielder. He did not disappoint, capturing the AL Rookie of the Year award. Rodriguez's season could have been even better as he improved over the second half, but wrist and back issues limited him to 41 games after the break. Rodriguez's exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel percentage and speed were all at least 90th percentile. His 25.9 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate could use some work, but that should come as the 22-year-old continues to develop. While it's fair to point out Rodriguez swiped 21 bags in his first 82 games but then stole only four bases in his final 52 contests, playing hurt could have slowed him down as he initially jammed his wrist sliding, so he may have just been cautious the rest of the season. Rodriguez merits top-five overall consideration, with a salient argument for him to be the first player off the board.

Despite a two-week IL stint with a cracked rib, Betts parlayed a career high 47.7 percent fly ball rate into 35 homers, a personal best. The downside was a lower BABIP for the fourth straight season, as Betts' uppercut swing decreased his groundball exit velocity, which torpedoed his groundball BABIP. However, a low 16.3 percent strikeout rate limited damage, allowing Betts to register a 144 wRC+, the third best of his career. Betts' sprint speed fell to 49th percentile, but he still collected double-digit pilfers for the eighth straight campaign. In his salad days, Betts was one of the best, if not the top, fantasy batters, worthy of the top overall pick. Less durability, a lower average and fewer steals have conspired to keep him out of that discussion, but he's still in the first-round chat. Since 2016, no one has scored more runs than Betts. Him hitting at or near the top of a potent lineup should keep that intact.

Despite missing 43 games, Trout smacked an even 40 homers in 2022, tying Pete Alonso for third in baseball. The missed time was the result of a rare back condition called costovertebral dysfunction, but he returned to hit 16 of those aforementioned 40 homers in his final 40 games (.308/.370/.686 in that span). Running seems to be a thing of the past, as Trout attempted just one steal last season and has a total of four stolen bases over the past three seasons, but there's no doubt the hitting skills are still elite. Eliminate running from the equation and the only variable is health; we should realistically bake in roughly a month of missed time, but Trout can do more in 130 games than most can contribute over a 150-game season. He's headed to the Hall of Fame one day, and Trout is still a ways from his twilight years.

Tatis may possibly be the biggest fantasy wildcard of 2023. He will be coming off an 80-game suspension for PEDs that will end earlier than initially projected since the Padres went deep into the NL playoffs. Tatis is now projected to be back on the active roster in late April, but he has also undergone two different surgeries this winter. He finally had that troublesome shoulder operated on as well as his left wrist. You add in the complexity of missing the entire 2022 season with his off-the-field antics leading to injury, the suspension and two surgeries, and we are left with the question of how early someone will take the risk on a top-five talent in a draft. The upside remains huge, but nobody can be blamed for passing on this maelstrom of risks, as we have rarely seen so many red flags at one time with a player, let alone one of his caliber. The projections will likely look conservative for his talents, but with good reason. Simply put, he is going to make or break many fantasy teams in 2023.

Tucker broke out during the shortened 2020 campaign with an .837 OPS and has established himself as a key cog in the Astros' lineup over the past couple years. During 2022 he hit exactly 30 home runs for the second straight season and also stole 25 bases while being caught only four times in 150 games. He saw his batting average and ISO drop about 40 points each to .257 and .221, respectively, but he showed minor improvements in both his strikeout (15.7 percent) and walk rates (9.8 percent). Tucker's solid defense in right field further cements his spot in the everyday lineup, and his 129 wRC+ in the heart of Houston's potent order will continue to provide ample opportunities to rack up counting stats during his age-26 season in 2023.

With Hernandez heading into his final season before free agency and due well north of $10 million through the arbitration process, the Blue Jays traded him to the Mariners in November in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko. The move comes with a park downgrade for Hernandez, though he should slot into the heart of a quality order in Seattle. Hernandez didn't come all that close to replicating his All-Star 2021 season from a run-production standpoint, but it was still an excellent campaign, as he reached 25 home runs in his third consecutive full season. He will chip in a handful of bags around the extra-base hits and strikeouts (career 29.4 K percentage). While his defense does not grade well, that's not going to cost him playing time in 2023, as the M's need his bat in the lineup every day.

Alvarez has few peers in Major League Baseball; Juan Soto is perhaps the only player on his level in terms of zone management and overall hitting skills. Alvarez's Statcast page is comical, as he led MLB in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and barrel percentage. Alvarez drew 78 walks while striking out only 106 times in 561 plate appearances during the regular season. Despite playing in only 135 games and stealing only one base, Alvarez finished as a top-10 roto hitter in 2022. We still have to worry about his knees, although his absences last season weren't directly related. The 25-year-old is under contract with the Astros long term and maintains outfield eligibility in fantasy leagues entering 2023.

Schwarber is sort of like the modern-day Adam Dunn in that he's a three-true-outcomes player who is perennially underrated because of his low batting average. He's also not a good defender. With 46 home runs last season, Schwarber led the National League, finishing second in baseball behind only Aaron Judge. Surprisingly, Schwarber added a new element to his game in his first season with the Phillies in the form of stolen bases. He was 10-for-11 on the basepaths after going 4-for-8 over the prior three seasons, so it would seem one of the Philadelphia coaches got through to him on how to read opposing pitchers. Now entering his age-30 season, Schwarber should be celebrated for what he is. His power contributions more than make up for the low average and the steals are just a cherry on top.

Baseball is an incredibly difficult game, and even players with Hall of Fame skill sets will struggle for stretches. At the end of June, Soto was batting just .224. It leaked in the media that Soto had turned down the Nationals' 15-year, $440 million offer, setting the stage for a blockbuster trade that sent Soto out West for an all-time prospect haul. Batting average, as we know, has its limitations, and in Soto's case his .242 season mark is downright misleading. He still hit the ball with incredible authority and chased pitches outside of the zone at a lower rate than anyone. The Padres did not run much last season under manager Bob Melvin, but everything else sets up well for a big-time rebound in Soto's first full season in San Diego.

In a season where we saw offense decline as a whole across the league, Jimenez had a chance to shine at the plate in what was a loaded lineup on paper in Chicago. Like many things on the southside, things worked out poorly and Jimenez played in just 84 games on the season. The .295/.358/.500 slash line with 16 homers and 54 RBIs in essentially half a season shows what the young man is capable of when his body and mind are in sync. We should be thankful he did not injure himself in Spring Training with silly stunts, but the hamstring injury in mid April kept him out until early July. Once he shook off the rust, he hit .323/.391/.558 in the second half with 14 of the 16 homers. We do not know what baseball awaits us in 2023, but we do know that this young man has all the potential in the world even if we have yet to see it over the course of a full major league season.

Harris did not come out of nowhere, but no one expected him to reach the majors so soon, let alone win NL Rookie of the Year. He was slashing .305/.372/.506 with Double-A Mississippi when he received the call in late May. Harris started out slow, but the Braves' patience paid off. His 24.3 percent strikeout rate and 4.8 percent walk rate suggest Harris still has work to do, but a 75th percentile hard hit rate paired with 95th percentile spring speed and a 95.2 fly ball average exit velocity is the blueprint for a five-category cornerstone. Harris' platoon splits are a slight concern, as he posted a .943 OPS against righties and a .649 mark facing southpaws. Just 22-years-old, Harris can surely narrow the gap, but in the short term, he may hit low in the order with a lefty on the hill. It's risky investing top-tier draft capital in a still unproven player, but the indicators point toward him being a perennial first round/$40 player.

When Buxton is on the field, he's one of the best players in baseball. Alas, he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2017. Buxton hit a career-high 28 home runs in just 92 games (and his second best 382 PA) with a .832 OPS and was the starting center fielder for the AL All Star team. Buxton hurt his knee in Minnesota's 7th game of the season which caused severe tendinitis. He avoided the injured list for the injury but the Twins rested him frequently with a pattern of playing in center field, DH and then a day off every three games. He then suffered a hip strain Aug. 23 which landed him on the injured list and he was shut down for the season once the Twins fell out of the playoff race. He had offseason surgery on the knee and is expected to be ready for spring training. Buxton can strike out too frequently (30.4% last season) but has elite power and bat speed. He ranked 11th in MLB in Barrel rate and 7th in average Exit Velocity (both per Baseball Savant). Buxton may be the fastest player in MLB, which results in supreme efficiency on the base paths, but the Twins limit his opportunities for both strategy (the Twins were last in SB attempts) and health concerns. Buxton has 40-30 potential if he has a full healthy season, but Minnesota's strategy of frequently resting him last year could cap his fantasy upside if that becomes the norm.

After parlaying a more aggressive approach the prior year into his best season, O'Neill reverted to exhibiting more selectivity and his production suffered. Maybe it was injury-related as O'Neill dealt with shoulder, hamstring and leg issues over the course of the season. His strikeout rate decreased to a career-low 26.9%, but his average exit velocity dipped 3.2 mph and the ever-important average exit velocity on fly balls fell 4.1 mph. The litany of injuries limited O'Neill to just 96 games, though they didn't inhibit running as O'Neill stole 14 bases, one fewer than 2021 in 42 fewer games. Getting a read on O'Neill is difficult since he's displayed two different skill sets, perhaps due to injuries. As such, O'Neill remains a high-risk, high-reward option, with both health and performance questions. O'Neill's power/speed potential is enticing, but it's dangerous to chase.